Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 26, 2021 4:06 pm
From the messiah
wxman57 wrote :18Z consensus (TVCN) shifted about 0.4 deg east of my landfall point south of Morgan City. I expected that. Landfall about the same time with TVCN (5pm-6pm Sunday). Expect the NHC to nudge the track a little east shortly. Also expect 100 kts.
Canadian model moves the "Great Labor Day Hurricane" into the Florida Panhandle. No worries for LA, it appears.
From his typing fingers to God's ears, let it be known, let it be so.
AtascocitaWX ah they found one southeast of the convection? Now thats interesting,im beginning to wonder if models have been initiating the center too far to the north?
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 26, 2021 4:11 pm
AtascocitaWX ah they found one southeast of the convection? Now thats interesting,im beginning to wonder if models have been initiating the center too far to the north?
The Center is southwest of the strongest convection. The storm is still experiencing some light shear.
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Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 26, 2021 4:11 pm
AtascocitaWX ah they found one southeast of the convection? Now thats interesting,im beginning to wonder if models have been initiating the center too far to the north?
The Center is southwest of the strongest convection. The storm is still experiencing some light shear.
Yeah it's weaker than I would have expected *pressure wise.* Nothing indicates anything that would have a substantial change to the track. Only impact is with the late arrival that 18z runs won't get the exact initialization which would only be minor.
Slight shift to the e on the track taking it over Houma, continuing the eastward trends and increasing the risk for a potentially significant impact to New Orleans.
Scott747 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 26, 2021 4:37 pm
Recon is finding stronger obs on the eastern pass which isn't too surprising. Should come out with a special to officially upgrade it to Ida.
It's where the greatest vorticity is too. Looks like not much should change from the models based on recon data.
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The NAM is a good short range model, but unless the 18z GFS shifts significantly to the west ( which seems very unlikely now6 than I wouldnt really pay attention to this NAM run
Texaspirate11 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 26, 2021 4:45 pm
Tropical Storm Ida just named
Next!
But in all seriousness NOLA is about to be in some big trouble it looks like. I’m thinking there’s a good chance it’ll be a cat 3 at landfall somewhere around Houma.
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 26, 2021 4:50 pm
The NAM is a good short range model, but unless the 18z GFS shifts significantly to the west ( which seems very unlikely now6 than I wouldnt really pay attention to this NAM run
The NAM is especially bad in handling tropical systems. *do not use it. Mathematically, physically, it just wasn’t designed with tropics in mind.
Texaspirate11 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 26, 2021 4:45 pm
Tropical Storm Ida just named
Next!
But in all seriousness NOLA is about to be in some big trouble it looks like. I’m thinking there’s a good chance it’ll be a cat 3 at landfall somewhere around Houma.
Feel so badly for them. Evacuations will be called for. I hope the vulnerable get out
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