September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

[Ted]

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[Scott747]

I'd try and breakdown the 0z GFS run but it's just about impossible. One of the craziest runs I can remember in awhile.

Let's just say that something might try and organize in the BoC starting sometime next weekend.

[Pas_Bon]

I'd try and breakdown the 0z GFS run but it's just about impossible. One of the craziest runs I can remember in awhile.

Let's just say that something might try and organize in the BoC starting sometime next weekend.

Cliff’s notes: 0z GFS brings a hurricane inland near the Rio Grande, then it traverses the coast to Houston, then back down again offshore.

[weatherguy425]

I'd try and breakdown the 0z GFS run but it's just about impossible. One of the craziest runs I can remember in awhile.

Let's just say that something might try and organize in the BoC starting sometime next weekend.

Cliff’s notes: 0z GFS brings a hurricane inland near the Rio Grande, then it traverses the coast to Houston, then back down again offshore.

And the 06Z - lol - a stall off the border as trough passes north and rebuilding ridge eventually shoves it southwest into the northeast Mexican coast with a large moisture envelope still bring heavy rain to portions of the Texas coast.

Operational runs are silly at this point. But, the idea of development in the BOC this weekend has some weight.

[Cpv17]

The 0z Euro looks kinda interesting too.

[Scott747]

The Euro, GFS and CMC all have a similar setup with ridging and vorticity in the mid range down in the BoC, and enough to pull up the disturbance towards N Mex or S Tx. After that is where it starts getting a little sketchy and a little longer range to have any confidence.

Need a few more runs with some consistency with the globals before really buying into it but definitely beginning to be hard to ignore. Probably wouldn't be till mid week at the earliest that it would start getting a mention from the NHC.

[don]

Fwiw there's pretty good ensemble support from the GFS now.While the euro ensembles are not as enthusiastic about the potential system.

[Cpv17]

Fwiw there's pretty good ensemble support from the GFS now.While the euro ensembles are not as enthusiastic about the potential system.

Looks quite similar to Ida at this same stage. Even has some ensemble support for the central Gulf coast just like Ida did early on. Notice that run develops the center further north and look where it goes.

[TexasBreeze]

Till this system develops if it does, Larry is a neat one to look at with it's 60 nm eye and large structure. Imagine being in the center of it with a clear eye!

[don]

12Z ICON showing weak TC development into north Mexico/South Texas.

[DoctorMu]

99°F was the high today, Officially, the hottest day of the year in CLL.

What a bizarre weather year it has been. Mega snows in January and February with frozen tundra for a week and single digit lows.

57°F low in June. 7 Days in the 80s for highs in July.

We finally arrive at football season and September, and then are slammed with the hottest week of the year....and another week of searing heat lies ahead.

Hit 101 here. Run of the mill. Had many days hotter than today.

It’s still 90F at 8:55. Reminds me of DFW….

That is so unusual b/c Bryan-C/S should theoretically be hotter. I guess all the concrete is winning out.

You're in a microclimate/UHI about 4-5°F warmer than The Woodlands and Conroe.

[weatherguy425]

Ridging is a bit stronger is centered further south of the 12Z run of the GFS, but vorticity/TC are still there. Lots of data to go over the next 7-10 days.

Scratch that. Edit to add -

Weakness in the ridge is still there; system (or remnants) move northward just after landfall. It's going to be all about timing and orientation of the ridge's western side as it weakens.

[Stratton20]

weatherguy425 yeah even though on this run the gfs takes this into Mexico, it does get drawn northward and texas gets rain from it

[redneckweather]

The two things that will stand out when I look back over the June, July and August posts on this board for 2021.

1. Jason hit 100 degrees multiple times this summer when no else did.

2. Jason is getting a pool put in.

Looking for forward to the pool party when it is done!

[Cpv17]

It looks like the GEFS has a much stronger signal on the Pacific side..

[Texaspirate11]

Watching 91L is like watching paint dry
Im ready for that cold front mid September

[Cpv17]

DoctorMu & Stratton would like the 12z Euro

[Stratton20]

CPV17 what does it showno rain here in college station sucks,

[Cpv17]

This looks interesting:

[Cpv17]

CPV17 what does it showno rain here in college station sucks,

It has a bullseye of 17.4” just a few miles west of BCS.