September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

[Kingwood36]

I've seen this before,

shift, modify, shift, modify, shift, modify

We'll probably end up with a Cat 3 into Freeport....

I live in Freeport....hush that mouth!

[Iceresistance]

I've seen this before,

shift, modify, shift, modify, shift, modify

We'll probably end up with a Cat 3 into Freeport....

I live in Freeport....hush that mouth!

I live in Oklahoma, but I'm worried for Y'all down there, I have a friend who lives in Sweeny, TX & is watching the system as well . . .

[don]

Fwiw the 12z Euro has wind gust as high as 50+ mph as far north as the I-10 corridor in some localized areas.How far offshore or onshore the storm stays will have implications on how strong it may be able to become.A storm that stays offshore and rides the coast into the coastal bend region or further east.Could have enough time to possibly become a moderate tropical storm.

[Rhodesk75]

I've seen this before,

shift, modify, shift, modify, shift, modify

We'll probably end up with a Cat 3 into Freeport....

I live in Freeport....hush that mouth!

RIGHT!!!! I’m in LJ

[Stratton20]

Don even that would be a problem, maybe some localized power issues? Lots to digest over the next few days

[Cromagnum]

I've seen this before,

shift, modify, shift, modify, shift, modify

We'll probably end up with a Cat 3 into Freeport....

Environment doesn't support that kind of storm from everything I had seen so far.

[Texaspirate11]

Im sure advisories will go up by Saturday?

[don]

12z Euro ensembles are mostly agreeing with the operational run.

[Cpv17]

Could be another Golden Triangle flood special.

[Pas_Bon]

Im sure advisories will go up by Saturday?

Looks that way
SpaceCityWeather just issued Stage 2 Flood Alert (Their in-house grade) for Houston area.

CLOSE eyes on the weather.....as ya'll already do keep.

[djmike]

Could be another Golden Triangle flood special.

Nooooooooooooo. (I did think about that. )

[snowman65]

Could be another Golden Triangle flood special.

Nooooooooooooo. (I did think about that. )

I always think about that lol

[don]

Good discussion from HGX this afternoon.

.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Friday]...

Seeing some model consistency on the arrival of deepening tropical
moisture during the day on Sunday, and this should correspond to the
rising rain chances near the coast and coastal counties when the day
begins and then spreading inland as the day progresses. Consistency
starts to end after this with quite a large model variation in the potential
southwestern/western Gulf of Mexico tropical cyclone development and
its impacts heading into at least the first half of next week. There
will be some potential for locally heavy rain beginning Sunday night
as a low level speed convergence and upper level divergence pattern
sets up, and this potential could extend into much of the first half
of the week somewhere along parts of the Texas and/or Louisiana coasts
depending on where/when/if any tropical formation happens. Models have
generally been producing different rainfall totals at different locations
with almost every run, so confidence levels on what spots will see the
most rain remains low. Someone will see a lot of rain (rainfall rates
of 3+"/hour), potentially in a short period of time where any training
sets up as precipitable water values hover/persist close to 2.50 inches.

For this upcoming event, currently have rainfall totals of 5 to 8 inches
with locally higher amounts possible, but at this time it is extremely
important to keep in mind how uncertain and low confident this forecast
is since it remains unclear how this is all going to evolve. Stay updated
with the latest forecasts over the next couple of days as significant
changes are possible. 42

[Scott747]

Im sure advisories will go up by Saturday?

Unless some completely unexpected organization would occur I wouldn't expect any advisories to be initiated at the earliest until around 4 on Sunday if recon finds a classifiable system.

Always a chance in this new era that a PTC could be initiated before recon.

[Cpv17]

Good discussion from HGX this afternoon.

.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Friday]...

Seeing some model consistency on the arrival of deepening tropical
moisture during the day on Sunday, and this should correspond to the
rising rain chances near the coast and coastal counties when the day
begins and then spreading inland as the day progresses. Consistency
starts to end after this with quite a large model variation in the potential
southwestern/western Gulf of Mexico tropical cyclone development and
its impacts heading into at least the first half of next week. There
will be some potential for locally heavy rain beginning Sunday night
as a low level speed convergence and upper level divergence pattern
sets up, and this potential could extend into much of the first half
of the week somewhere along parts of the Texas and/or Louisiana coasts
depending on where/when/if any tropical formation happens. Models have
generally been producing different rainfall totals at different locations
with almost every run, so confidence levels on what spots will see the
most rain remains low. Someone will see a lot of rain (rainfall rates
of 3+"/hour), potentially in a short period of time where any training
sets up as precipitable water values hover/persist close to 2.50 inches.

For this upcoming event, currently have rainfall totals of 5 to 8 inches
with locally higher amounts possible, but at this time it is extremely
important to keep in mind how uncertain and low confident this forecast
is since it remains unclear how this is all going to evolve. Stay updated
with the latest forecasts over the next couple of days as significant
changes are possible. 42

I think it’s just going to depend if it moves inland more towards central Texas or if it goes more towards east Texas. Of course we’ll get a lot more if it goes more towards central Texas.

[Cpv17]

18z ICON track looks similar to the 12z Euro.

[Scott747]

18z GFS is coming in much stronger early on. TS between Veracruz and Tampico on Monday morning.

Strengthening quickly. Down to 998 early Monday afternoon.

995 Monday evening between Tampico and Brownsville.

991 moving n just offshore between Brownsville and Corpus early Tuesday morning.

988 offshore of Corpus moving n to nne.

984 offshore of Matagorda Bay still moving n to nne early Tuesday afternoon.

Makes landfall around Sargent late afternoon on Tuesday as a hurricane.

[don]

Wow the 18Z GFS sure took a turn...shows a Category 1 near Freeport

[Kingwood36]

Well I guess I'll be going grocery shopping tomorrow

[Scott747]

That run should perk things up for the NHC boys. Have to think an invest is imminent and get the hurricane models running.