September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Stratton20
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redneckweather your probably going to have to wait a good 7-10 days before we get any sort of “fall front” in here, models are hinting at a front in the day 9-10 window but that is far out
Kingwood36
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Finally! I have power! Been without I since 9 pm lastnight. Cut down 2 full tree's that fell..1 fell on my fence and the other missed my house by 6 ft..hell of a day! Glad it's over! Sorry but we are CLOSED for the rest of the season!
Rhodesk75
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Lake Jackson here…I’ll say this, Nick was **MUCH** worse than we were expecting. Actually, we got almost 100% OPPOSITE of what we expected. We were prepared for up to 15”-20” of rain and not much of a wind event—-WRONG!! Oh, it rained, but nothing like expected. No standing water anywhere this morning. Maybe in overgrown ditches that just hadn’t had culverts cleaned out to allow drainage. Bastrop Bayou was out of its banks in several areas in Angleton this morning, but that’s nothing new. But the WINDS….HOLY MOTHER OF NATURE, y’all…THE WINDS!! Lake Jackson, “The City of Enchantment” is hundreds & hundreds & hundreds of trees less enchanting today. The downed trees, blocked roads (OURS!), the roofs with trees through them, fences smashed by trees…I’ve never seen anything like it before. I was here for Alicia, Rita, Ike, Allison, Harvey…and many other TS and hurricanes and while there was definitely (obvious) damage with all of them, the destruction, uprooted trees, and debris mess with Nicholas is just insane!! We’re nearing 24 hours without power now and CenterPoint has informed the Mayor that it’s looking like a 3 day restore event. Rain was blowing into my chimney and flooding my living room, blew through the sunroof of my husbands truck and absolutely soaked the entire interior, we were prisoners of two trees across our neighborhood streets until after noon today. Then, we got a call from the RV storage facility in Angleton, where we keep our RV (P.S. that we’ve only just made the FIRST payment on in August ), that they had sustained significant damage and needed all of the owners to come assess their RV’s. Y’all, the roofs of each covered spot was peeled back like a tuna can, poles/beams/tin was crushing many of the roof ac’s or had crushed the roofs of the RV’s….then, there sat ours…storage roof gone, ground support beam nearly uprooted and leaning…without a single scratch…ready for her next adventure! THANK YOU, JESUS!!!
We don’t have any power and I don’t know how many days we can depend on this generator to keep 3 freezers and 2 refrigerators of groceries good, but that can all be replaced. I would like a good shower, a decent meal and some SLEEP!! And from this point forward, I’ll definitely plan for TWO categories above the prediction! Lol!
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DoctorMu
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djmike wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 2:44 pm Overall Im pleased with the outcome here in the Golden Triangle. I got 6.18” so far and still misty. No flooding. Sporadic outages but no damage. Heard transformers popping this morning but all have stopped now. Hopefully those that got damage are ok and prayers for them. Now…on to fall… whens the next possible front??
Good to hear. Just mist and coolish temps here. Am going to go water some of the back and drag the hose around.
Cpv17
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It would’ve been much worse for everyone had this storm went further northwest instead of hugging the coastline. Pretty crazy track.
TexasBreeze
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It could have been a real bad core event all day if it wasn't for shear and drier air degrading it through the day!
Cpv17
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TexasBreeze wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 6:15 pm It could have been a real bad core event all day if it wasn't for shear and drier air degrading it through the day!
Honestly, with the SST setup, had it had favorable environmental conditions, it could’ve became a major. Also, the center reformation Sunday evening gave it at least 12 less hours over water.
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DoctorMu
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More misty rain off and on with those tiny, iconic tropical droplets. Clouds are low and the radar is not picking up the rain. Amazing backside stuff. Nicholas had quite a few tricks up its sleeve, including that right turn on the coast once landfall was made.

lol, better turn off the hand sprinkler in the backyard!
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Texaspirate11
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We got many trees down. Street flooding and crazy winds but never lost power. Eye went over us around 3 am
7 inches in nassau bay. Kemah really took a hit
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djmike
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I needed that. After days of watching Nicholas, I was exhausted yesterday mentally. Took me a nap that lasted well into the night. Im guessing with it so quite in here many of you did the same. Lol. On to drier COOLER weather. ….unfortunately hurricane season is not over. Like Delta last year for Beaumont happened in early October. Have a great day everyone!
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
redneckweather
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The GFS has been showing a decent front around the 22nd as does the crazy Canadian. Looks like the Euro is showing it as well.
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sambucol
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redneckweather wrote: Wed Sep 15, 2021 7:39 am The GFS has been showing a decent front around the 22nd as does the crazy Canadian. Looks like the Euro is showing it as well.
How decent? What kind temps? I’m ready for cooler weather!
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Texaspirate11
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I'm ready for a real cold front to shut our hurricane season down
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Cpv17
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If a front is modeled over 5 days out, I wouldn’t really believe it. Get within that 5 day window then maybe.
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jasons2k
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The remnants of Nicholas look cutoff to me. That should mean higher rain chances for us as the high to the east builds back in.
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snowman65
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Always remember, and never forget...the first 3-4 fronts that models show each year never make it this far....so thetre's that...
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DoctorMu
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jasons2k wrote: Wed Sep 15, 2021 10:17 am The remnants of Nicholas look cutoff to me. That should mean higher rain chances for us as the high to the east builds back in.
Yeah, Nick's CoC is spinning between LC and Lafayette. We're still getting backside clouds and drizzle. Fine by me in mid September! Three sectors of our sprinkler system are back, but 2 are still down. I need watering season to be over...like now. Brown patch season awaits!
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jasons2k
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I need a few days of dry weather to get plaster/pebble in. That’s all. Gonna be tricky.
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 151005
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
505 AM CDT Wed Sep 15 2021

.SHORT TERM [Today Through Thursday Night]...

Center of Nicholas near the Sabine river north of Orange TX with
deep convection sheared off to the east and northeast. Across SETX
northerly flow in place with extensive cloud cover. Temperatures in
the lower 70s this morning. Some patchy light drizzle and fog will
be possible this morning. As we warm up today rain chances will
develop over the eastern areas where slightly deeper moisture and
some convergence will linger though offset by capping. Rain chances
look slim. Some breaks in the clouds can be expected mainly in the
afternoon and over the west. The center of Nicholas was forecast to
mosey very slowly east and then turn north although quite a few of
the short term guidance packages is at odds with this and take it
only slightly further east then stall and either wobble it
south/southwest/east/northeast. Admittedly the main area of
convection is expected to be east and northeast of the center for
today. With the upper trough having swept by to the north already it
may well be cutoff and just meander about on Thursday. So expecting
quiet weather across the region tonight with a return of lower cloud
decks. Thursday again with heating the possibility of some showers
beneath the cap. Again the greater chances should be over the
eastern 2/3rds of the region and fairly slim chances at that.
45

&&

.LONG TERM [Friday Through Wednesday]...

Drier air on the backside of the remnants of Nicholas continues to
hang out over the area through at least Friday night. This is when
surface high pressure develops over the eastern Gulf which brings a
return to onshore flow and turns the PW faucet (PW values 1.8"-2.0")
back on, so to speak. GFS/ECMWF are in agreement on moisture return
late Friday/early Saturday while the Canadian/NAM are much slower
(Sunday). Leaned towards the former pair of models, so PoPs become
noticeably higher over the weekend. Especially on Sunday where
there`s higher confidence on sufficient moisture in place to drive
diurnally driven showers/thunderstorms. This is also coincident with
a weak upper-level trough which grants us VIP access to numerous
shortwaves. Higher amounts of moisture (PW values 2.1"-2.3")
remain offshore, so rain showers will remain possible even in the
overnight hours with help from PVA. Our typical pattern of
showers/thunderstorms expanding northward throughout the day along
the seabreeze will continue into next week. Seasonal temperatures
will persist throughout the forecast period with afternoon
temperatures in the upper 80s/low 90s and overnight temperatures
in the 60s/70s.

Gonna go ahead and use the discussion about temperatures into a
segue to discuss everyone`s favorite two words after experiencing a
summer in Houston...."cold front". Early next week, global models
are in consensus of a deep upper-level trough swinging down into the
Western U.S. and develops a cutoff low over the Central Plains by
midweek. The question that remains to be answered is if this
trough is deep enough to drive a cold front down into SE Texas.
And the survey says.......we`re still uncertain, but there are at
least a couple of models (ECMWF/Canadian) that push a cold front
in towards the end of next week so don`t put a red "X" on the
board just yet. The GFS pushes a front in as well, but it`s
weaker and less progressive. It is definitely too early to set
this in stone, especially with successive model runs flipping back
and forward on the front actually making it here. All that being
said, climatologically speaking we usually get our first cold
front in mid-to-late September and the NBM has a sizable spread in
the lower quartile MinT values at the end of next week. Just
sayin`!

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Very minor changes planned. MVFR/IFR this morning with some rises in
CIGS 15-20z. VCSH for UTS and possibly CXO. MVFR this afternoon
mixed with at least a few hours of VFR possible though confidence on
how far east the erosion of the lower decks occurs is low. Low CIGS
return tonight.
45

&&

.MARINE...

The remnants of Nicholas continues to slowly move eastward leaving
moderate northerly to northwesterly winds in its wake. Winds will
gradually decrease throughout the day and fall below the caution
advisory by the late afternoon hours. Wave heights will steadily
decrease throughout the day as well with seas becomes 2 to 3 feet
by tonight. Going into the weekend, high pressure will develop
over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and return light to occasionally
moderate onshore flow to the waters. The resulting increased
moisture brings an increase in rain chances extending into next
week.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 89 69 88 70 93 / 10 0 10 10 10
Houston (IAH) 80 71 87 71 91 / 20 10 20 10 30
Galveston (GLS) 80 75 86 79 88 / 20 20 20 20 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 4 PM CDT this
afternoon for the following zones: Coastal waters from
Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal
waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters
from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60
NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60
NM.

&&

$$
TexasBreeze
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jasons2k wrote: Wed Sep 15, 2021 10:17 am The remnants of Nicholas look cutoff to me. That should mean higher rain chances for us as the high to the east builds back in.
The GFS has been shoving the remnant back towards Texas increasing rain chances by Friday.
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