Invest 92L Near the Yucatan

[sambucol]

When is the MJO supposed to turn positive and the shear dissipate?

The best place to go for an MJO update is the weekly MJO update link here:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... update.ppt

You'll need PowerPoint to view it. Basically, there's no sign of a true MJO for the next few weeks and probably not through the first week of September. It's weak and in the Asian region. Typically, an MJO signal takes a good 30 days to reach from there to the East Pacific. But since this one is weak, it probably won't make it. Shear, however, is steadily falling across the Tropics.

Ok. Thanks, Wxman57.

[srainhoutx]

ALTHOUGH THE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
SHOWING SOME ORGANIZATION ON SATELLITE...PRESSURES ARE NOT FALLING
AND THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE CIRCULATION. THIS
SYSTEM COULD GAIN SOME ADDITIONAL ORGANIZATION BEFORE MOVING OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE ON SATURDAY. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[srainhoutx]

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 071308
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1308 UTC SAT AUG 7 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922010) 20100807 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100807  1200   100808  0000   100808  1200   100809  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.3N  88.3W   18.0N  90.3W   18.9N  92.4W   19.7N  94.4W
BAMD    17.3N  88.3W   18.0N  90.3W   18.5N  92.2W   18.9N  94.3W
BAMM    17.3N  88.3W   18.3N  90.2W   19.0N  92.2W   19.8N  94.3W
LBAR    17.3N  88.3W   18.2N  90.5W   19.3N  92.7W   20.5N  94.9W
SHIP        25KTS          27KTS          32KTS          40KTS
DSHP        25KTS          26KTS          32KTS          41KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100809  1200   100810  1200   100811  1200   100812  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    20.7N  96.6W   22.7N 100.8W   24.1N 105.0W   24.7N 110.3W
BAMD    19.3N  96.5W   20.0N 101.0W   20.4N 106.1W   20.4N 112.1W
BAMM    20.6N  96.4W   22.3N 100.7W   22.9N 106.0W   22.5N 113.8W
LBAR    21.5N  97.2W   24.4N 101.4W   26.1N 104.8W   26.5N 108.6W
SHIP        49KTS          64KTS          72KTS          70KTS
DSHP        49KTS          30KTS          27KTS          28KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  17.3N LONCUR =  88.3W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR =  12KT
LATM12 =  16.7N LONM12 =  85.9W DIRM12 = 287DEG SPDM12 =  12KT
LATM24 =  15.6N LONM24 =  83.3W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  100NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM 

[srainhoutx]

A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15
MPH. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOR EXPECTED DUE TO PROXIMITY
TO LAND. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[biggerbyte]

Unlike Colin, this system pretty much has one route. Mexico will be it's last stop. Westward bound will be in order for any system in the gulf and Caribbean right now. Things are getting dry in these parts, slowly but surely, and some have been dry previous to. We need some rain.

[ticka1]

I thought the weather pattern was changing...

Need some rain other then the fly by shower.....

[srainhoutx]

NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_al922010.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201008081512
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END