Winter Long Range Discussion

[Cpv17]

I really hope El NINO makes a return next winter, i am over this La Nina ruining winter, ill take a wet pattern next week though, as long as we can stay away from the 80’s

The bad thing about El Niño though is that it’s difficult to get cold in our source region so we never really get any big Artic outbreaks in an El Niño. Just about every Artic outbreak we’ve had has came in a La Niña. But overall though I’d take an El Niño because we do have a better chance for snow with it because southern Pacific jet is more active and with the added precipitation it usually keeps our temps from torching. Just hard to get extreme cold in an El
Niño is the only downfall.

[Stratton20]

CPV17 hey id take that tradeoff, good news is the 12z GFS shows another front on monday, keeping us cool for a few days with a stormy pattern, dont think we will see a blow torch pattwrn ( hopefully)

[DoctorMu]

I really hope El NINO makes a return next winter, i am over this La Nina ruining winter, ill take a wet pattern next week though, as long as we can stay away from the 80’s

The bad thing about El Niño though is that it’s difficult to get cold in our source region so we never really get any big Artic outbreaks in an El Niño. Just about every Artic outbreak we’ve had has came in a La Niña. But overall though I’d take an El Niño because we do have a better chance for snow with it because southern Pacific jet is more active and with the added precipitation it usually keeps our temps from torching. Just hard to get extreme cold in an El
Niño is the only downfall.

Lots of overrun and cool/cold drizzle.

[DoctorMu]

It's Texas, so the wind is back today, this time out of the South. Crystal blue persuasion skies. Mid 60s. Just another day in paradise (No A/C, no sprinklers). A dry front Wed. night leading to cooler but sunny Thursday and Friday (highs in the 50s).

[Stratton20]

Hope we get some rain soon, man is it getting dry here

[Stratton20]

Ughhhh! I hate that the 00z GFS is showing this in fantasyland at hour 384, but this is the kind of setup we would want for any wintry precip here this winter, low pressure developing off the texas coast and cold air surging in from the north, dang fantasyland!!

[Stratton20]

Interesting at the end of the 12z Euro, shows a big dip in the jet or trough right over us

[Cpv17]

Interesting at the end of the 12z Euro, shows a big dip in the jet or trough right over us

We really need the pattern to slow down. Everything has been so progressive. The jet stream is racing a million mph!

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 well hope the Euro is on to something, what we need is ridging off the east coast, that should help to slow down these storm systems

[Stratton20]

The GFS is starting to show signs of another arctic blast around the 17th-18th , far out but we will see

[Iceresistance]

The GFS is starting to show signs of another arctic blast around the 17th-18th , far out but we will see

It's also strongly extended as well, with a 2nd wave on the 21st-22nd. (Very far out, but Yikes!)

[Stratton20]

Iceresistance yep saw that, hopefully this is the start of a trend and not just a one time model run

[Cpv17]

The GFS is starting to show signs of another arctic blast around the 17th-18th , far out but we will see

Well the GEFS does much up fairly well with the GFS for the same timeframe so that’s a good sign. The 500mb pattern in the long range looks nearly perfect.

[Iceresistance]

Iceresistance yep saw that, hopefully this is the start of a trend and not just a one time model run

It may be the one time run for this one, but it's a warning sign on things to come, the extreme cold is more likely in February. That cold may counter the Record Warm in December 2021

[Stratton20]

CPV17 yep , usually if the GFS showed that cold blast but not the ensembles I would take it with a huge grain of salt but since the GEFS is kind of in line with the operational GFS, that definitely deserves at least some attention

[Stratton20]

18z GFS is interesting with the potential strong cold front around the 16-17th, it shows over lapping moisture with temps in the mid 30’s all rain on this run, but not far from showing a wintry set up

[Iceresistance]

18z GFS is interesting with the potential strong cold front around the 16-17th, it shows over lapping moisture with temps in the mid 30’s all rain on this run, but not far from showing a wintry set up

This is similar to the 12z GFS run, this could get REALLY interesting

EDIT: Also, this cold blast could be self-sustaining for weeks since the MJO is moving very slowly.

[Cpv17]

18z GFS is interesting with the potential strong cold front around the 16-17th, it shows over lapping moisture with temps in the mid 30’s all rain on this run, but not far from showing a wintry set up

This is similar to the 12z GFS run, this could get REALLY interesting

EDIT: Also, this cold blast could be self-sustaining for weeks since the MJO is moving very slowly.

Hopefully the MJO will finally move into p8.

[Stratton20]

Iceresistance yep it could, still 10 days out, but the fact that the GFS has been advertising this the last few runs is definitely worth watching

[Iceresistance]

Iceresistance yep it could, still 10 days out, but the fact that the GFS has been advertising this the last few runs is definitely worth watching

GEFS is showing this too as well, there are at least 5-7 Members in the same general agreement on the 18z Run in the same general timeframe (January 20th to January 23rd)