Winter Long Range Discussion

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Cpv17
Posts: 5235
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

Brutal Artic attack on the 6z GFS. Like I’ve said, the ensembles have been hinting at it.
Kingwood36
Posts: 1592
Joined: Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:29 am
Location: Freeport
Contact:

Is it 300 plus out tho
Cpv17
Posts: 5235
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

Kingwood36 wrote: Tue Jan 11, 2022 8:09 am Is it 300 plus out tho
Yeah this is true but it has some merit to it so it’s not complete fantasy.
Kingwood36
Posts: 1592
Joined: Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:29 am
Location: Freeport
Contact:

Lol I'm just not biting. Gfs has showed this multiple times since December and it never works out. I'll pass till it gets within range
Cpv17
Posts: 5235
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

Kingwood36 wrote: Tue Jan 11, 2022 8:17 am Lol I'm just not biting. Gfs has showed this multiple times since December and it never works out. I'll pass till it gets within range
Never said it would happen. Just has a higher chance of happening than usual because it has ensemble support.
Iceresistance
Posts: 577
Joined: Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:48 pm
Location: Tecumseh, OK
Contact:

End of 0z GFS has snow for most of Texas (Yes, it also includes Houston)

6z GFS gave me February 2021 Flashbacks.
Kingwood36
Posts: 1592
Joined: Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:29 am
Location: Freeport
Contact:

Just a fantasy..it will be gone by the 12z
mcheer23
Pro Met
Pro Met
Posts: 530
Joined: Fri Jan 11, 2013 11:15 am
Location: Missouri City/ Sugar Land
Contact:

Kingwood36 wrote: Tue Jan 11, 2022 10:47 am Just a fantasy..it will be gone by the 12z
I'm shocked it stayed around for 2 straight runs, lol.
Stratton20
Posts: 4226
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

And the 12z GFS dropped it, this winter has been a joke at best, see yall next year when hopefully El Nino returns, im done with this near normal temp stuff
Kingwood36
Posts: 1592
Joined: Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:29 am
Location: Freeport
Contact:

Stratton20 wrote: Tue Jan 11, 2022 11:35 am And the 12z GFS dropped it, this winter has been a joke at best, see yall next year when hopefully El Nino returns, im done with this near normal temp stuff
Told ya lol
Stratton20
Posts: 4226
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

Kingwood36 yep this winter is a bust lol, but watch us say that and then we get another winter storm in february lol
Cpv17
Posts: 5235
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

Nothing really changed on the 12z. The upper air pattern is still there and has big potential.
Stratton20
Posts: 4226
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

CPV17 yeah but that rub of the GFS has “pushed” the bitter cold back in terms of time , thats not something we want to see in a model run, though the GFS still shows it, i suspect we are going to have some interesting model runs in the days going ahead
Cpv17
Posts: 5235
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

Stratton20 wrote: Tue Jan 11, 2022 12:05 pm CPV17 yeah but that rub of the GFS has “pushed” the bitter cold back in terms of time , thats not something we want to see in a model run, though the GFS still shows it, i suspect we are going to have some interesting model runs in the days going ahead
Pattern looks quite cold second half of this month. Combine that with what looks to be an active STJ. Blocking looks great near Alaska and Greenland. I’ll take it. Don’t pay too much attention to the changes in each operational run. That will drive you crazy.
Stratton20
Posts: 4226
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

Ah I gotcha, I guess I do get a little too fixated on the operational runs, but their is something interesting on the 12z GFS that happens at hour 228, GFS sniffing out some wintry mischief in the hill country
Attachments
129C43B7-BFDF-4306-8F28-721A05B081BF.png
Iceresistance
Posts: 577
Joined: Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:48 pm
Location: Tecumseh, OK
Contact:

Stratton20 wrote: Tue Jan 11, 2022 11:35 am And the 12z GFS dropped it, this winter has been a joke at best, see yall next year when hopefully El Nino returns, im done with this near normal temp stuff
No, it shifted north, that storm is still there.
Cpv17
Posts: 5235
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

Stratton20 wrote: Tue Jan 11, 2022 12:13 pm Ah I gotcha, I guess I do get a little too fixated on the operational runs, but their is something interesting on the 12z GFS that happens at hour 228, GFS sniffing out some wintry mischief in the hill country
Yep. I’m definitely intrigued with that timeframe right now.
Stratton20
Posts: 4226
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

CPV17 it has been showing this for the past few days, keeps us in the low 40’s with moisture around, hope we can trend colder with what the gfs is showing
Kingwood36
Posts: 1592
Joined: Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:29 am
Location: Freeport
Contact:

It's winter and I have flowers sprouting lol
Stratton20
Posts: 4226
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

This is a nice setup for cold air on the 12z Euro, blocking sets up over alaska and near Greenland, FWIW the 12z CMC is showing a similar setup as the euro
Attachments
A2E842CE-E551-481C-8357-16C1238570AE.png
7399D08F-1C6D-4F34-A843-55E921768FC4.png
Post Reply
  • Information
  • Who is online

    Users browsing this forum: Ahrefs [Bot], Bing [Bot] and 63 guests