Winter Long Range Discussion

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Wed Jan 12, 2022 1:32 pm This is a nice setup for cold air on the 12z Euro, blocking sets up over alaska and near Greenland, FWIW the 12z CMC is showing a similar setup as the euro
That definitely looks pretty good.
Stratton20
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CPV17 yep! And the fact that the euro isnt the only model showing this setup is a good thing or something to watch
Stratton20
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Tonights GFS run got really interesting
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Stratton20
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12z GEFS ensemble members for next friday
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Stratton20
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The difference between the 06z GFS and 06z GEFS for next friday is crazy, dont know why their is such a big difference
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Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Sat Jan 15, 2022 8:41 am The difference between the 06z GFS and 06z GEFS for next friday is crazy, dont know why their is such a big difference
Always go with the ensemble, especially this far out.
Stratton20
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Cpv17 I mean technically 6 days isnt that far out, but its weird to see the operational run that much “warmer” but fwiw 7 of the 20 GEFS members still show a potential wintery precip setup, also 00z Euro run is out
Iceresistance
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This may not happen since it's in the long range (18z GFS) but YIKES! :shock:

Image
Stratton20
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Iceresistance saw that, storms develops over texas at hour 294, way far out but this may be a signal that the pattern change that is about to occur could be really significant
Iceresistance
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Stratton20 wrote: Sat Jan 15, 2022 5:49 pm Iceresistance saw that, storms develops over texas at hour 294, way far out but this may be a signal that the pattern change that is about to occur could be really significant
I remembered seeing models that were similar to this last year, but it was pushed back to February, could this also repeat that? Only time will tell if that's true . . .

EDIT: I do want to mention that the PNA is expected to become Neutral at the end of this month.
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