January 2022

[Iceresistance]

57 doesn't believe the nam... cold rain

Well duh. It’s not showing temps in the 70’s so of course he doesn’t lol

The NAM Model is Notorious for showing the extreme side of weather events, especially Hurricanes.

[jerryh421]

57 doesn't believe the nam... cold rain

Well duh. It’s not showing temps in the 70’s so of course he doesn’t lol

The NAM Model is Notorious for showing the extreme side of weather events, especially Hurricanes.

From what I understand, the NAM is usually good with temps, especially in a cold air mass like this. Is this generally correct?

[TexasBreeze]

Latest 12z gfs is still a good sleet profile.

[Cpv17]

Well duh. It’s not showing temps in the 70’s so of course he doesn’t lol

The NAM Model is Notorious for showing the extreme side of weather events, especially Hurricanes.

From what I understand, the NAM is usually good with temps, especially in a cold air mass like this. Is this generally correct?

Correct.

[Stratton20]

12z GEFS is even more aggressive, this would be a winter storm if the gefs is correct

[jasons2k]

Almost always - in these shallow arctic setups - when the models are trending colder than the official forecast, the models win.

[tireman4]

Almost always - in these shallow arctic setups - when the models are trending colder than the official forecast, the models win.

Jason is spot on this....

[tireman4]

57 doesn't believe the nam... cold rain

Well duh. It’s not showing temps in the 70’s so of course he doesn’t lol

The NAM Model is Notorious for showing the extreme side of weather events, especially Hurricanes.

Actually the NAM is much better with normal day to day forecasting than Tropical. I have no idea why that is, the NAM is not the model folks laugh at like they during tropical season.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 181819
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1219 PM CST Tue Jan 18 2022

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

Didn`t make a lot of changes to the previous package as trends
appear to be on track. This morning`s BKN/OVC decks have mixed
out with onshore winds picking up/becoming gusty. Still expect-
int these winds to decrease this evening, Otherwise, there are
some concerns with the possibility of patchy fog/lower ceiling
heights tonight given the persistent/moderately strong WAA but
still counting on the onshore winds being elevated enough just
above the surface to keep CIGS/VIS from falling too much. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 407 AM CST Tue Jan 18 2022/...

LONG TERM [Thursday Through Tuesday]...

Enjoy the Tuesday and Wednesday warmup because it is going to feel like
winter again. Strong surface high pressure ridging into the state from
the north behind Wednesday evening`s cold front will help to significantly
cool our area down. We`ll start off Thursday morning with lows in the
30s/40s, and a tight pressure gradient will make it breezy inland and
windy near the coast. There will not be much warming during the day
with highs only in the 40s. As a shortwave/disturbance begins to work
its way into the state from the west, look for increasing rain chances
as the day progresses. The combination of falling temperatures Thursday
night (eventually close to or below freezing for much of the area by
sunrise Friday morning) and the state`s disturbance should support the
chance for some frozen precipitation beginning up north in the evening
and further to the south as the night progresses. At this same time
period, drier air will be working its way into the area from the north,
and this could dry parts of the area out before anything frozen manages
to reach the ground. Whatever does manage to develop should have minimal
to no impact to the area as no accumulations are anticipated. Confidence
right now is on the low side for this potential winter weather event,
so stay tuned.

Only a slight warmup on Friday is expected (at least it will not feel
as breezy/windy) as rain chances linger closer to the coast. All of
the area dries out Friday night, and a decrease in cloud cover will
help to drop overnight low temperatures that will range from the mid
20s well inland to an around 30 to low 30s range central to the upper
30s at the coast. A little warmup can be expected on Saturday (highs
in the lower 50s) followed by another cold night on Saturday night
(upper 20s to lower 30s inland to the lower 40s coast). The forecast
remains uncertain at the end of the weekend and on into the start of
next week in regards to when and where the next shortwave/disturbance
decides to move across the state. Area temperatures are currently expected
to be warm enough (it will still feel like winter) to keep any frozen
precip out of the forecast. Things can change, so stay tuned!

42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 73 60 73 36 43 / 0 0 10 20 30
Houston (IAH) 73 60 76 42 45 / 0 0 50 70 40
Galveston (GLS) 71 65 74 48 50 / 0 10 20 60 40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Low Water Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for the following
zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

&&

$$

[Stratton20]

Thursday night may possibly not be our only opportunity for some wintry mischief, looks like late next week the euro and gfs are beginning to sniff another disturbance out, we will see

[Iceresistance]

How is this not hyping anyone? Lol

[Iceresistance]

Well duh. It’s not showing temps in the 70’s so of course he doesn’t lol

The NAM Model is Notorious for showing the extreme side of weather events, especially Hurricanes.

Actually the NAM is much better with normal day to day forecasting than Tropical. I have no idea why that is, the NAM is not the model folks laugh at like they during tropical season.

The NAM does need to be watched anyways, it did accurately predict the strength of Dorian in 2019, even though that 57 (Heat Miser) does not trust the NAM very much.

[Stratton20]

iceresistance thats interesting! not sure how good the sref is tho

[Iceresistance]

OH MY GOODNESS!

[Kingwood36]

OH MY GOODNESS!

Don't know if I buy that or not

[Iceresistance]

OH MY GOODNESS!

Don't know if I buy that or not

I don't know, that kinda jumpscared me.

The SREF model is the Short Range Ensemble Forecast model, the model runs are similar to the GEFS lately.

On the Previous storm system that dumped snow over the Midwest & East Coast, it successfully predicted several inches of snow in Iowa & Missouri.

Edit to add: The odds of something like this is low, but not Zero, it would be wild if that forecast verified.

[jasons2k]

The trend is your friend…

[don]

We're starting to get in range of the HRRR now,and it looks pretty wet.It doesn't go out far enough yet to see how the storm ultimately unfolds.(The 546mb line is what i notice the models show with this event as roughly the boundary where the liquid precip starts to change over to frozen precip.The HRRR is more aggressive with the cold air advection than the global models and has the 546mb line entering the central counties by 12 noon Thursday. While the EURO and GFS doesn't show that line entering the central tier of counties (I-10 corridor) until midnight Thursday.Big difference.

[tireman4]

This will be an everchanging event I fear, Don. Stay tuned.

[don]

The 18Z NAM came in very aggressive...That would be a pretty significant storm if it verified.