January 2022

[Stratton20]

After seeing the 00z mesoscale model runs and the 00z GFS snow depth map, my confidence is around 60-70% that we will have a winter storm on our hands

[txsnowmaker]

40% chance of rain/snow mix per David Paul and latest NAM is “very snowy” he reported.

[don]

From HGX

Confidence is increasing that the area is going to get some rain mixed with sleet, snow and freezing rain. Temperatures though will struggle to fall below freezing so accumulations of wintry precipitation should be insignificant.

[Kingwood36]

Winter storm watch issued for Central texas...will we get one?

[Kingwood36]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT National Weather Service HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 550 AM CST Wed Jan 19 2022 TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313- 335>338-436>439-200000- Houston-Trinity-Madison-Walker-San Jacinto-Polk-Burleson-Brazos- Washington-Grimes-Montgomery-Northern Liberty-Colorado-Austin- Waller-Inland Harris-Chambers-Wharton-Fort Bend-Inland Jackson- Inland Matagorda-Inland Brazoria-Inland Galveston- Southern Liberty-Coastal Harris-Coastal Jackson-Coastal Matagorda- Coastal Brazoria-Coastal Galveston-Matagorda Islands- Brazoria Islands-Galveston Island-Bolivar Peninsula- Including the cities of Crockett, Trinity, Groveton, Madisonville, Huntsville, Shepherd, Coldspring, Livingston, Corrigan, Caldwell, Somerville, College Station, Bryan, Brenham, Navasota, Conroe, The Woodlands, Liberty, Cleveland, Dayton, Columbus, Eagle Lake, Weimar, Sealy, Bellville, Hempstead, Prairie View, Brookshire, Waller, Houston, Winnie, Mont Belvieu, Anahuac, Stowell, Old River-Winfree, El Campo, Wharton, Missouri City, Mission Bend, Sugar Land, Rosenberg, First Colony, Pecan Grove, Edna, Ganado, Bay City, Pearland, Alvin, Angleton, League City, Friendswood, Devers, Pasadena, Baytown, Palacios, Lake Jackson, Freeport, Clute, Texas City, Dickinson, La Marque, Surfside Beach, and Galveston 550 AM CST Wed Jan 19 2022 ...Risk of Wintry Precipitation Thursday Night through Friday Morning... A strong cold front will sweep through Southeast Texas this evening. Colder temperatures can be expected behind the front, and by Thursday evening and on into Thursday night readings at or below freezing are anticipated. Areas of rain developing Thursday night through early Friday morning could interact with the near freezing temperatures and transition into a wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet and maybe even snow. The main area of concern is generally near and to the south of a line from Brenham to Conroe to Goodrich. At this time, little to no accumulation of frozen precipitation is expected, but typical areas such as bridges and overpasses will be more susceptible for some accumulation. Driving could become treacherous or dangerous if these conditions materialize. If possible, stay off the roads. Conditions will improve on Friday as the near freezing early morning temperatures warm back up as the day progresses into the mid to upper 40s. Stay tuned for possible upgrades to watches or advisories. $$

[davidiowx]

I think that will be determined after model output and other data today. Doesn’t seem like it’s going to be anything to write home about, but that’s dangerous to say when these things are so unpredictable down here.

[TexasBreeze]

There is not much support for much north of Harris county! Maybe more to the south and west of here.

[Stratton20]

Im already prepared for getting nothing here in college station, looking like a total disappointment to me, latest model runs are very discouraging

[Kingwood36]

Im already prepared for getting nothing here in college station, looking like a total disappointment to me, latest model runs are very discouraging

Today is d-day for models if they are going all in or if they back off

[Kingwood36]

I'm suprised they issued a special weather statement and said mainly from a line from Brenham to Conroe to the south..I figured it would be more towards the north not south

[Kingwood36]

Winter storm watch issued for Corpus Christi...

[Stratton20]

Kingwood36 its looking like a D day for alot of us north of HW-5

[Kingwood36]

Winter weather Watches and special statements issues as of now..only one yet to bite is HGX

[tireman4]

Remember Kingwood, in times like these, it is better to be prudent before you move. I am sure the men and women at HGX are doing that. They have forgotten more than many of us know. I trust them implicitly

[Stratton20]

Kingwood36 what are those taned colored watches next to the winter storm watch?

[Kingwood36]

Remember Kingwood, in times like these, it is better to be prudent before you move. I am sure the men and women at HGX are doing that. They have forgotten more than many of us know. I trust them implicitly

Oh I agree 100% I'm sure they will get on board later today..they are usually the last ones to do so

[Kingwood36]

Kingwood36 what are those taned colored watches next to the winter storm watch?

Special weather statement this is what it says for the entire area

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT National Weather Service HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 550 AM CST Wed Jan 19 2022 TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313- 335>338-436>439-200000- Houston-Trinity-Madison-Walker-San Jacinto-Polk-Burleson-Brazos- Washington-Grimes-Montgomery-Northern Liberty-Colorado-Austin- Waller-Inland Harris-Chambers-Wharton-Fort Bend-Inland Jackson- Inland Matagorda-Inland Brazoria-Inland Galveston- Southern Liberty-Coastal Harris-Coastal Jackson-Coastal Matagorda- Coastal Brazoria-Coastal Galveston-Matagorda Islands- Brazoria Islands-Galveston Island-Bolivar Peninsula- Including the cities of Crockett, Trinity, Groveton, Madisonville, Huntsville, Shepherd, Coldspring, Livingston, Corrigan, Caldwell, Somerville, College Station, Bryan, Brenham, Navasota, Conroe, The Woodlands, Liberty, Cleveland, Dayton, Columbus, Eagle Lake, Weimar, Sealy, Bellville, Hempstead, Prairie View, Brookshire, Waller, Houston, Winnie, Mont Belvieu, Anahuac, Stowell, Old River-Winfree, El Campo, Wharton, Missouri City, Mission Bend, Sugar Land, Rosenberg, First Colony, Pecan Grove, Edna, Ganado, Bay City, Pearland, Alvin, Angleton, League City, Friendswood, Devers, Pasadena, Baytown, Palacios, Lake Jackson, Freeport, Clute, Texas City, Dickinson, La Marque, Surfside Beach, and Galveston 550 AM CST Wed Jan 19 2022

...Risk of Wintry Precipitation Thursday Night through Friday Morning... A strong cold front will sweep through Southeast Texas this evening. Colder temperatures can be expected behind the front, and by Thursday evening and on into Thursday night readings at or below freezing are anticipated. Areas of rain developing Thursday night through early Friday morning could interact with the near freezing temperatures and transition into a wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet and maybe even snow. The main area of concern is generally near and to the south of a line from Brenham to Conroe to Goodrich. At this time, little to no accumulation of frozen precipitation is expected, but typical areas such as bridges and overpasses will be more susceptible for some accumulation. Driving could become treacherous or dangerous if these conditions materialize. If possible, stay off the roads. Conditions will improve on Friday as the near freezing early morning temperatures warm back up as the day progresses into the mid to upper 40s. Stay tuned for possible upgrades to watches or advisories. $$

So from Brenham to Conroe to Goodrich and South of there..so I'm assuming this is what they mean

[don]

The 12Z HRRR came in decently wetter than its 6Z run(which was really dry) FWIW. Looking at the soundings it has a pretty small warm nose,and a layer of sub freezing air above the surface.So some of the precip its showing as just rain would probably be sleet or a mix of both.

[djmike]

Im not expecting anything really. Maybe a sleet pellet or a flake here and there but other than that, Just not seeing the confidence in models like previous winter weather events. Especially being a little over 24hrs out. Unless a big shift in models today, I dont see much happening. (In our parts).

[Kingwood36]

From Jeff Linder

Mixture of winter precipitation will be possible over much of SE TX Thursday night.

Forecast Changes:
Expansion of the potential of rain, freezing rain, and sleet across much of SE TX.

Discussion:
Strong cold front will move across SE TX this evening between 600pm and midnight. Cold modified arctic air mass will surge into the region with temperature falling quickly into the 40’s and then on into the 30’s for most areas by sunrise Thursday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms with the front will end and push offshore. Strong north winds of 25-35mph with gust to 40mph on Thursday will drive wind chills into the 10’s and 20’s over the area. Moisture lingers in the post frontal air mass and an upper level disturbance will approach from the west Thursday into Thursday night. This disturbance will yield lift across the cold air dome which will slowly deepen with time. Model profiles show a fairly stout warm layer above the ground on Thursday morning, but this layer cools and erodes into Thursday evening resulting in the potential for a transition of light rain to sleet or even a few flurries.

Main questions continue to be how quickly the surface freezing line can progress southward Thursday evening and how quickly does the moisture depart the area. The freezing line will progress southward Thursday evening, but how much it will overlap with falling precipitation is the key for any light accumulation amounts. Think areas along a north of a Wharton to Pearland to Liberty line may see a mixture and transition from rain to rain/sleet mix or light freezing rain. Trajectory of this cold air mass is more toward SC TX so expect the freezing line to advance quickly southward to our west over the coastal bend and even S TX while it will only slowly move southward over SE TX… it will likely be colder in Victoria and Corpus Christi than Houston on Thursday night.

Impacts:
It does not take much accumulation of freezing rain/drizzle to cause issues on bridges and overpasses, but very warm conditions today should help to mitigate accumulations on Thursday night as ground temperatures will likely only cool to the upper 30’s by that time additionally, surface temperatures only cool toward 31-35 which is generally marginal for ice formation on bridges and overpasses. The higher bridges and flyovers have the best ability to cool toward the air temperature and thus have the best potential for any light accumulations. Light accumulations (trace-.01) of an inch of ice may occur on elevated surface such as trees, powerlines, rooftops, and vehicles. Really not thinking there will be much accumulation as what falls will be light and surface temperatures likely very marginal.

Winter Storm Watches have been issued to the west and southwest of SE TX where the potential for ice accumulation is higher and temperatures 2-3 degrees colder. May see a winter weather advisory or winter storm watch for portions of SE TX (Matagorda Bay area) later today or early Thursday.

Monitor forecasts closely for changes…a reduction of surface temperatures 1-3 degrees over SE TX or precipitation lingering longer on Friday morning would result in higher potential for accumulations especially on bridges and overpasses