February 2022

[Kingwood36]

I'm not ruling out a sleet pellet like always down here but the trends are for North Texas

[Stratton20]

Kingwood36 not true..... 12z Euro does bring winter weather into western and NW counties in SE Texas, the GFS also shows some wintry weather for NW SE Texas counties, if anything the trend has been slightly south today, well your closer to the coast I think, yeah you may not get much of anything im afraid

[Cpv17]

I’m not sure I’d say the trends have been south today. Maybe on the Euro they have been but that’s about it. GFS trend today has very much been north.

[Iceresistance]

This is just insane, I'm having a very hard time believing this, & the storm's ceiling has yet to be known.

[Stratton20]

In confident we will see some wintry mischief in college station, but anything south of their likely wont see much of anything

[Cpv17]

In confident we will see some wintry mischief in college station, but anything south of their likely wont see much of anything

I’m not even sure College Station will see anything from what I’m seeing right now. The trough digs pretty far south but it doesn’t push far enough east before turning north.

[Stratton20]

CPV17 Im looking at the 18z GFS run and it does bring sleet/ freezing rain into my area, thats what it shows for me on weatherbell, but their still is time for change and we probably wont have a good idea on whats going to happen until monday, but even if we do get wintry precip, the worst should still stay well to the north of us

[txsnowmaker]

I’m not sure I’d say the trends have been south today. Maybe on the Euro they have been but that’s about it. GFS trend today has very much been north.

Couldn’t agree more.

[Cpv17]

CPV17 Im looking at the 18z GFS run and it does bring sleet/ freezing rain into my area, thats what it shows for me on weatherbell, but their still is time for change and we probably wont have a good idea on whats going to happen until monday, but even if we do get wintry precip, the worst should still stay well to the north of us

What we really need is for the trough to leave some energy back after the front pushes through.

[Stratton20]

CPV17 agreed, fingers crossed tonights model runs show something like that I also only think we might get some because I just watched a KHOU weather update and they showed the GFS, which did actually bring some wintry precip into oir NW counties

[walsean1]

CPV17 Im looking at the 18z GFS run and it does bring sleet/ freezing rain into my area, thats what it shows for me on weatherbell, but their still is time for change and we probably wont have a good idea on whats going to happen until monday, but even if we do get wintry precip, the worst should still stay well to the north of us

What we really need is for the trough to leave some energy back after the front pushes through.

We will know more Monday but even then look at the winter weather that was supposed to happen in the Texas valley that never really materialize. North Texas for sure is in the target area. We will need some sort of system to pass through once the front has passed which NWS Houston has mentioned in their discussion for Thursday night and Friday

[Stratton20]

FWIW the 18z EPS mean snowfall shifted south compared to its 12z run, interesting

[Stratton20]

00z GFS says some of SE Texas could still get wintry weather , id get some freezing rain/sleet on this run lol, also the 00z GEFS shifted noticeably south

[Andrew]

Not seeing much of a change today. It still looks like frozen precipitation will remain north and west of the region. Likely a pretty significant system for Central and North Texas with a lot of ice and sleet. More than likely just cold rain for most of us down here. The GFS still detaches some of the mid-level energy out west so we will need to keep an eye on that into the weekend but as it stands right now frozen precip doesn't seem like much of an issue for those of us in SE Texas. If temperatures drop quicker than anticipated I think the main concern would be freezing rain. Soundings show a very large warm nose as this cold air will remain very shallow (notice how far north 540 line stays). Still, with or without frozen precipitation we are likely looking at most of the region in the 20s Friday and Saturday morning so a hard freeze looks likely for most.

[Kingwood36]

Next

[walsean1]

Not seeing much of a change today. It still looks like frozen precipitation will remain north and west of the region. Likely a pretty significant system for Central and North Texas with a lot of ice and sleet. More than likely just cold rain for most of us down here. The GFS still detaches some of the mid-level energy out west so we will need to keep an eye on that into the weekend but as it stands right now frozen precip doesn't seem like much of an issue for those of us in SE Texas. If temperatures drop quicker than anticipated I think the main concern would be freezing rain. Soundings show a very large warm nose as this cold air will remain very shallow (notice how far north 540 line stays). Still, with or without frozen precipitation we are likely looking at most of the region in the 20s Friday and Saturday morning so a hard freeze looks likely for most.

Unless the freeze line drops further south, then all of the ice/snow issues should stay north. Thursday night into Friday morning maybe a chance but like Andre just said, not in the cards this time.

[Cpv17]

I believe the southeast ridge is what’s going to screw us over.

[txsnowmaker]

Not seeing much of a change today. It still looks like frozen precipitation will remain north and west of the region. Likely a pretty significant system for Central and North Texas with a lot of ice and sleet. More than likely just cold rain for most of us down here. The GFS still detaches some of the mid-level energy out west so we will need to keep an eye on that into the weekend but as it stands right now frozen precip doesn't seem like much of an issue for those of us in SE Texas. If temperatures drop quicker than anticipated I think the main concern would be freezing rain. Soundings show a very large warm nose as this cold air will remain very shallow (notice how far north 540 line stays). Still, with or without frozen precipitation we are likely looking at most of the region in the 20s Friday and Saturday morning so a hard freeze looks likely for most.

Unless the freeze line drops further south, then all of the ice/snow issues should stay north. Thursday night into Friday morning maybe a chance but like Andre just said, not in the cards this time.

Andre lol.

[Andrew]

Not seeing much of a change today. It still looks like frozen precipitation will remain north and west of the region. Likely a pretty significant system for Central and North Texas with a lot of ice and sleet. More than likely just cold rain for most of us down here. The GFS still detaches some of the mid-level energy out west so we will need to keep an eye on that into the weekend but as it stands right now frozen precip doesn't seem like much of an issue for those of us in SE Texas. If temperatures drop quicker than anticipated I think the main concern would be freezing rain. Soundings show a very large warm nose as this cold air will remain very shallow (notice how far north 540 line stays). Still, with or without frozen precipitation we are likely looking at most of the region in the 20s Friday and Saturday morning so a hard freeze looks likely for most.

Unless the freeze line drops further south, then all of the ice/snow issues should stay north. Thursday night into Friday morning maybe a chance but like Andre just said, not in the cards this time.

Interestingly enough the GFS has the freezing line approach the central part of the region by the middle of the day on Thursday but the ECMWF has a lot more moderate temperatures across the region. Either way, the strong warm nose aloft is going to melt most precipitation that falls leaving RA or FZRA as the two possible precipitation types. The GFS has temps at 5,000ft near 10C with everything between 3000ft and 10000ft remaining above freezing until later overnight. Something to keep an eye on but either way this could be a significant FZRA event for Central and North Texas with the GFS showing 1.5 inches of FZRA across the DFW region.

[Stratton20]

Looking like a boring typical miserable cold rain for SE Texas, Yawn, Next!