January 2022
What a beautiful day!! Even better tomorrow. Enjoy this weekend - it’s about as good as it gets around here.
-
- Site Admin
- Posts: 3438
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:46 pm
- Location: North-West Houston
- Contact:
GFS and other global models have shifted north with the surface low and more of Central SE Texas looks under the bullseye. GFS is showing a pretty good chunk of the region receiving a quick 2-3 inches. Obviously, we won't know the exact specifics until a couple of hours out but something to watch going into Monday.
For Your Infinite Source For All Things Weather Visit Our Facebook
Looks like a MesoLow may develop tomorrow, i wonder if they will issue a flash flood watch if the HRRR continues to show those qpf amounts.
FYI...The 06Z NAM 12km has shifted the more significant rainfall accumulations toward the Houston Metro area for Monday as compared to the 00Z run:
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
319 AM EST Mon Jan 31 2022
Day 1
Valid 12Z Mon Jan 31 2022 - 12Z Tue Feb 01 2022
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS TODAY AND TONIGHT...
There will be the potential for heavy to excessive rainfall over
portions of Texas as a rather potent mid level trough taps an
increasingly moisture rich atmosphere as it approaches the Gulf of
Mexico. Maintained the Slight Risk area with only minor
adjustments based on the latest WPCQPF and the
deterministic/ensemble guidance. The numerical guidance has been
pretty steady in depicting isolated maximum values in the 3 to 5+
inch range with enough ingredients to support some local 1 to 2
inch per hour rates closer to the coastline. That region has the
best overlap between the precipitable water values at or above
1.25 inches...moisture flux in the 1000 to 850 mb layer peaking at
nearly 2 standardized anomalies greater than climatology during
the late afternoon and early evening and best low level jet.
Flash flood guidance is generally in excess of 2.5 inches per hour
and 4 inches per 3 hours. Some rainfall rates may be enough to
challenge the hourly flash flood guidance...with urbanized
urbanized areas being more vulnerable to problems of runoff and
flash flooding. The potential for excessive rainfall will
gradually decrease from west to east as the upper system makes its
way out over the Gulf of Mexico.
Bann
Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
As of 4 am, the 06Z NAM 3km is a little closer to reality in my opinion as compared to the 06Z NAM 12km as of this time with respect to what they're each depicting vs. the current radar reflectivity...
Btw, the 06Z NAM 3km keeps the highest rainfall accumulations totals centered slightly off to the west of the Houston metro area...
Btw, the 06Z NAM 3km keeps the highest rainfall accumulations totals centered slightly off to the west of the Houston metro area...
-
- Information
-
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: Ahrefs [Bot], Amazon [Bot], Bing [Bot] and 69 guests