February 2022

[walsean1]

Just being curious, I was looking at models on pivotal weather and nothing stands out for winter precipitation for at least Houston this week. They all keep it up north and northeast Texas. So I don’t know where people are getting these models that show ice or snow for Houston especially when the local nets have shut these possibilities down. Please don’t post false or made up maps if it is not legitimate forecast that are reliable. I come to this board for legitimate source if or weather information, not hype.

Not sure what you’re talking about……

What I am referring to is a member posting map of the 0Z ICON showing a ice storm for Houston a couple of pages back. When I looked at the models this morning, none of the GFS, ECMFW, showed ice only for north and central Texas. Even if the models turn out to be correct, the ground will be too warm for anything to cause any issues

[Andrew]

Looks like the freezing mark will likely set up around the College Station region into Bastrop. Along and north of State Highway 21 looks like the best call at this point. It still looks like the warm nose won't get eroded until late in the day so freezing rain/ice pellets look like the most likely p-type once temps drop below freezing. Still likely a pretty decent event for the Hill Country into Northern Texas. Those across North Texas could see upwards of 1/4'' - 1/2'' of ice which would be borderline for significant impacts/power outages. Closer to home we will likely be looking at lows in the upper 20s Friday and possibly Saturday morning. Finally, something to keep an eye on is any residual moisture on Friday or Saturday as the shortwave trough ejects to the east. That could result in an isolated shower but model support still remains marginal at best.

[Kingwood36]

Just being curious, I was looking at models on pivotal weather and nothing stands out for winter precipitation for at least Houston this week. They all keep it up north and northeast Texas. So I don’t know where people are getting these models that show ice or snow for Houston especially when the local nets have shut these possibilities down. Please don’t post false or made up maps if it is not legitimate forecast that are reliable. I come to this board for legitimate source if or weather information, not hype.

Not sure what you’re talking about……

What I am referring to is a member posting map of the 0Z ICON showing a ice storm for Houston a couple of pages back. When I looked at the models this morning, none of the GFS, ECMFW, showed ice only for north and central Texas. Even if the models turn out to be correct, the ground will be too warm for anything to cause any issues

It's what this forum is for...to DISCUSS and show models...I see what the problem is here

[Stratton20]

Andrew do you think we could have any potential issues in college station? It does seem the global model’s do bring in some wintry weather as the NWS has bought in for my area, just curious as we are only 3 days or so out, just wanna be precautious fwiw

[Cpv17]

Just being curious, I was looking at models on pivotal weather and nothing stands out for winter precipitation for at least Houston this week. They all keep it up north and northeast Texas. So I don’t know where people are getting these models that show ice or snow for Houston especially when the local nets have shut these possibilities down. Please don’t post false or made up maps if it is not legitimate forecast that are reliable. I come to this board for legitimate source if or weather information, not hype.

Not sure what you’re talking about……

What I am referring to is a member posting map of the 0Z ICON showing a ice storm for Houston a couple of pages back. When I looked at the models this morning, none of the GFS, ECMFW, showed ice only for north and central Texas. Even if the models turn out to be correct, the ground will be too warm for anything to cause any issues

The ICON is a legitimate model and so far has handled this potential system well. Just because a model isn’t the GFS or the ECMWF doesn’t mean you discount it. There have been plenty of occasions where both of those models have been wrong. This is board open for discussion, which means we’re going to discuss several different potential outcomes.

[Stratton20]

The 06z ICON continues its trend, like CPV17 said the ICON is a good model, and it has been very consistent, of course the Euro and GFS are definitely better models, bu they both can be wrong, we are in the range where mesocale models plus the short range ICON probably will be more important to watch than the two global models

[cperk]

Just being curious, I was looking at models on pivotal weather and nothing stands out for winter precipitation for at least Houston this week. They all keep it up north and northeast Texas. So I don’t know where people are getting these models that show ice or snow for Houston especially when the local nets have shut these possibilities down. Please don’t post false or made up maps if it is not legitimate forecast that are reliable. I come to this board for legitimate source if or weather information, not hype.

I don't know of anyone on this forum that this posted a made up or false model many of the models posted on this board come from legitimate weather sites they are not altered by members now they be not be trusted models,but they are not false or made up.

[Philiput]

Just being curious, I was looking at models on pivotal weather and nothing stands out for winter precipitation for at least Houston this week. They all keep it up north and northeast Texas. So I don’t know where people are getting these models that show ice or snow for Houston especially when the local nets have shut these possibilities down. Please don’t post false or made up maps if it is not legitimate forecast that are reliable. I come to this board for legitimate source if or weather information, not hype.

I don't know of anyone on this forum that this posted a made up or false model many of the models posted on this board come from legitimate weather sites they are not altered by members now they be not be trusted models,but they are not false or made up.

I've watched this forum since the days at KHOU. Have almost never posted but enjoy the discussion. Key word being a discussion. Even if a model turns out incorrect it is good to have a discussion and maybe we might know why it was incorrect for the next time. If you are worried about people going crazy, they will anyways. I already got an email from my children school district yesterday morning about potential bad weather later in the week. Good discussion about different models or different aspects of life are a good thing and should never be shut down.

[Andrew]

Andrew do you think we could have any potential issues in college station? It does seem the global model’s do bring in some wintry weather as the NWS has bought in for my area, just curious as we are only 3 days or so out, just wanna be precautious fwiw

I think CLL will be on the border of winter precip. So something to keep an eye on

[walsean1]

Post from Larry Cosgrove this morning

https://twitter.com/larrycosgrove/statu ... 97857?s=21

[don]

Post from Larry Cosgrove this morning

https://twitter.com/larrycosgrove/statu ... 97857?s=21

Please stop....The main Globals models (GFS,EURO) are not the only models that meteorologist and the NWS use. In fact more weight is typically put in the mesoscale models once you get within 48 hours or less.I'm not saying at all that we are going to have winter storm impacts here.I've only been saying to stay weather aware as things are not set in stone.Ive been saying the same thing for several days now, we need to watch the cutoff low sitting to our west later this week.As we will have cold air already established over the area.With the Subtropical jet overhead.

[mcheer23]

RDPS continues to support some ice over SE Texas...interesting...remains somewhat of an outlier for now.

[don]

It still shows a impulse moving through Thursday night/Friday morning also,looks similar to the ICON fwiw.

[mcheer23]

Actually shows some pretty hefty Freezing Rain accumulations

[Stratton20]

Oof that would be nasty🥶

[mcheer23]

This is a close up of the ICON. Similar run to RDPS

[mcheer23]

Close up of new GFS......

[mcheer23]

Post from Larry Cosgrove this morning

https://twitter.com/larrycosgrove/statu ... 97857?s=21

Please stop....The main Globals models (GFS,EURO) are not the only models that meteorologist and the NWS use. In fact more weight is typically put in the mesoscale models once you get within 48 hours or less.I'm not saying at all that we are going to have winter storm impacts here.I've only been saying to stay weather aware as things are not set in stone.Ive been saying the same thing for several days now, we need to watch the cutoff low sitting to our west later this week.As we will have cold air already established over the area.With the Subtropical jet overhead.

GFS also has some lingering moisture across the area Friday afternoon...as don said...

[DoctorMu]

How accurate has the cmc been?

Usually, it struggles especially with being too aggressive with temps/winter wx.

FWIW, CMC nailed last February's winter storm in CLL and deep freeze.

[DoctorMu]

walsean1 not hyping what is posted, their are several models that show wintry precip getting into or close to SE Texas, no ones hyping anything, plus the NWS is calling for a frozen mix. in my area so what those models are showing is not fake

There will be probably be freezing rain, possible wintry mix in College Station, in the NOAA Houston forecast area.