February 2022

[Kingwood36]

Damn what happend to the precip? It's not going to make it here now after all those glorious model runs

[Stormlover2020]

Looks like dry air

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 031146
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
546 AM CST Thu Feb 3 2022

.AVIATION [12Z TAF ISSUANCE]...

IFR to MVFR cigs will remain through the end of the TAF period.
Surface cold front that moved across SE Texas during the overnight
hours was located over the coastal Gulf waters as of 5 AM CST
this morning. Rain chances will continue until tonight as the
850MB front moves through SE Texas. As temperatures continue to
decrease during the day today, expect precipitation to switch
from RA to a mix of RA, FZRA and PL. At this time, only mentioned
FZRAPL for CLL/UTS, but there is a slight chance for it for CXO,
IAH, SGR, and possibly HOU if it gets a bit colder than
forecasted. Rain will begin to subside tonight, with a slight
chance remaining over the southern parts of the region through
Friday morning. Strong northerly winds have developed in the wake
of the front and are likely going to remain 15-20 KTS with gusts
of 25-30 KTS through Friday.

AC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CST Thu Feb 3 2022/

SHORT TERM [Through Friday Night]...

Showers and isolated thunderstorms associated to a cold front will
continue to affect most of SE Texas today. For those who did receive
rain within the last 24 hrs, accumulations so far range between a
quarter of an inch to an inch with some isolated amounts of near an
inch and a half along the southern counties. As of 3 AM CST this
morning, the surface cold front has made it into the coastal Gulf
waters but the 850MB front is still making its way down, soon to be
approaching our northern counties. Expect rain chances to continue
for much of SE Texas throughout the day today as the 850MB front
makes it through the local area. Temperatures quickly descended
during the overnight hours behind the surface front, with College
Station and Huntsville already in the mid 30s. As temperatures
continue to decrease today in response to strong CAA, expect
precipitation to switch from rain to a mix of rain, freezing rain
and sleet/ice pellets. A Winter Weather Warning continues in effect
for Houston, Madison, Burleson and Brazos Counties through tonight.
Possible ice accumulations for these areas will be around an eighth
of an inch. For the rest of SE Texas, to exclude the coastal
counties and Barrier Islands, a Winter Weather Advisories are in
effect. Ice accumulations up to a tenth of an inch are possible over
these locations. Remember, difficult travel conditions are possible
and could impact the morning or evening commute. Be cautious when
driving over bridges and overpasses. Rain chances will subside
during the night hours, and any wintery mix still occuring should
be focused mainly over the southern half of the region. Continue
to monitor the latest forecast for your area.


Expect strong northerly winds today, with speeds ranging around 15
to 20 MPG with stronger gusts on occasion. For the Barrier Islands
and coastal Jackson and Matagorda Counties, winds will be stronger
and a Winds Advisory has been issued for those areas and will be in
effect through tonight. Temperatures tonight will continue to fall,
with lows likely to be in the low to upper 20s. Thus, a Hard Freeze
Warning was issued and will be in effect from this evening through
Friday morning. In addition, the strong gusty winds will bring down
wind chill values into the single digits to the teens. Therefore, a
Wind Chill Advisory was also issued and is in effect from this
evening to Friday morning. Keep in mind, the cold wind chills could
result in hypothermia if precautions are not taken. Make sure you
also take extra steps to protect plants, pets and livestock tonight.

Cold and breezy conditions expected Friday, with some lingering
showers mainly over the Gulf waters. Highs on Friday will only be in
the mid 30s to low 40s, therefore, make sure to continue to take
extra precaution if you plan to spend time outdoors. Temperatures
will once again fall into the low 20s to low 30s on Friday night,
but thankfully winds will be relaxing during the night. Though
another Hard Freeze Warning could be issued for some of the northern
and northwestern counties Friday night into Saturday morning, wind
chill values might remain just out of the Wind Chill Advisory
criteria. Regardless, we are still dealing with very cold
temperatures and extra precaution should continue to be taken.

For more information regarding the warnings and advisories for your
area, visit https://weather.gov/houston

AC

LONG TERM [Saturday Through Thursday]...

Strong bubble of high pressure will be over east Texas through the
weekend bringing dry and continued cool conditions. High
temperatures will be in the mid to upper 40s on Saturday, dip down
into mid to upper 20s Saturday night, then into the mid 50s on
Sunday. The high pressure begins to weaken and slide north late
Sunday into Monday as an upper level trough enters Texas. This
disturbance will swing through SE Texas Monday into Tuesday, but
don`t expect much if any precipitation from this system as PWATs
remain below 0.5". Some light rain showers may be possible off
the coast of Matagorda, but even then PoPs are only 10 to 20
percent.

High pressure returns late Tuesday into Wednesday continuing the
cool and dry conditions. Max temperatures will remain in the
upper 50s to mid 60s through the week with lows in the mid 30s to
mid 40s.

Fowler

MARINE...

The cold front has cleared out the fog in the Bays and near shore
waters, so the fog advisory has been allowed to expire. The
concern now turns to the strong northerly winds and high seas
developing in the wake of the cold front. Expect northerly winds
of 25 to 35kts this afternoon across the Gulf waters and
Matagorda Bay with gusts to 40 to 45kts through Friday morning.
These winds will make bay waters rough and build seas to 8 to 12
feet in the coastal waters. Gradual improvements are expected
through Friday into Saturday as high pressure builds overhead.
There is also the potential for some light freezing rain in the
Bays and near shore waters this evening into tonight, so boat
decks may become slippery. The persistent offshore flow will
bring slightly lower than normal low tides down to around 0.5 foot
below MLLW Thursday and Friday night.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 35 21 36 23 43 / 90 10 10 0 0
Houston (IAH) 45 28 41 29 49 / 80 30 10 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 50 32 42 35 47 / 70 30 30 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Hard Freeze Warning from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Friday
for the following zones: Austin...Brazos...Burleson...
Colorado...Grimes...Houston...Madison...Montgomery...San
Jacinto...Trinity...Walker...Waller...Washington.

Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for the
following zones: Brazos...Burleson...Houston...Madison.

Wind Chill Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Friday
for the following zones: Austin...Brazos...Burleson...
Colorado...Fort Bend...Grimes...Houston...Inland Harris...
Inland Jackson...Inland Matagorda...Madison...Montgomery...
Polk...San Jacinto...Trinity...Walker...Waller...
Washington...Wharton.

Winter Weather Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to midnight CST
tonight for the following zones: Montgomery...San Jacinto...
Trinity...Walker...Waller.

Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for the following
zones: Bolivar Peninsula...Coastal Jackson...Coastal
Matagorda...Galveston Island...Matagorda Islands.

Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to noon CST
Friday for the following zones: Coastal Harris...Inland
Brazoria...Inland Galveston...Inland Matagorda...Northern
Liberty.

Winter Weather Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to noon CST
Friday for the following zones: Fort Bend...Inland Harris...
Inland Jackson...Wharton.

Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to midnight CST
tonight for the following zones: Polk.

Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for the
following zones: Austin...Colorado...Grimes...Washington.

GM...Gale Warning until 6 PM CST Friday for the following zones:
Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX
out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX
out 20 NM...Matagorda Bay...Waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Friday for the following
zones: Galveston Bay.

&&

$$

[don]

From HGX

[Cromagnum]

Charlie Brown is running really fast at that football now. Will Lucy pull it?

[don]

Maybe,maybe not. It's now casting time. I would watch the radar and temp trends and keep an eye on the HRRR today.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Had a gut feeling we’d hit freezing 3-4 hours early.

32 with graupel in Weimar.

[tireman4]

Had a gut feeling we’d hit freezing 3-4 hours early.

32 with graupel in Weimar.

But you love Winter...

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Had a gut feeling we’d hit freezing 3-4 hours early.

32 with graupel in Weimar.

But you love Winter...

With a passion. I’ll take this 32 over 80, every time and on Sunday.

[Kingwood36]

Is everything moving east?

[DoctorMu]

So, so close. Snow in Caldwell, Cameron and Waco. Still rain and near freezing here. Literally within 15 mi.

[DoctorMu]

Freezing rain in Bryan.

[don]

Is everything moving east?

Yes,the big band of frozen precip over central and north Texas right now is the band that's suppose to move through later today.We'll have to watch and see if it dies out or not before getting here.

[don]

After looking at the 12z mesoscale models coming in, i expect the winter weather advisory to hold. As the models are slower to dissipate the line than they were in last nights 0z runs.

[mcheer23]

RDPS backed off south of I-10

[Stratton20]

33 in CS, transition to sleet/freezing rain should be occurring shortly

[DoctorMu]

33 in CS, transition to sleet/freezing rain should be occurring shortly

Lucy and the football so far. Just 15 miles away in Caldwell - mix and snow. 31°F

[sswinney]

Doesn’t seem to be drying up. We’re getting heavy rain right now in League City/Dickinson area. The radar doesn’t seem to be getting lighter either.

[Kingwood36]

We are wrapping everything here at work..sucks when you work at a water treatment plant and u are soaking wet out in this wind lol

[mcheer23]

14z HRRR