February 2022

[Stratton20]

I am not posting this for hype, and hope I can get an opinion from a pro met, but this is 9 days out and surprisingly quite a few 18z GEFS members at this range are sniffing out something?Again I know its far out, but maybe a signal for something?

[don]

It's associated with a strong and deep trough models are showing mid month.Could be anything from a severe weather setup to a winter storm depending on if we have any arctic air available.Something to watch for sure.

[Stratton20]

fwiw the 00z ICON does show some moisture available when the trough passes through, with perhaps some light snow on the backside as it passes by

[don]

0Z ICON

[don]

The 0Z GFS and 0Z CMC get close to showing a snow event fwiw.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 091204
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
604 AM CST Wed Feb 9 2022

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

High pressure continues to dominate, keeping skies clear and VFR
conditions through the TAF period. SW winds should pick up a bit
after sunrise (5-10kts), becoming light and VRB in the evening
and overnight. Clear skies will allow temperatures to cool towards
the dewpoint at some locations, developing patchy fog possible
tonight (After 10z Thursday). Guidance seems to be too aggressive
given the dry conditions across SE Texas. Therefore, have only
included a minimal VIS reduction (BR) near coastal terminals &
KSGR where moisture is higher.
03


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 444 AM CST Wed Feb 9 2022/...



.SHORT TERM [Today Through Thursday Night]...

A weak, dry cold front near central TX will briefly pass through our
northern counties this morning. Aside from some high clouds, no
impacts are expected. High pressure will once again dominate across
the region, allowing for calm weather to continue through the short
term. W/SW winds will remain mostly light through the day. Clear
skies will help warm high temperatures into the upper 60s and near
70s. Lows will be marginally warmer, with temperatures in the 30s
and 40s overnight.

High pressure should continue to dominate into Thursday, with winds
remaining light throughout the day. Highs should continue to warm,
rising into the 70s throughout most of SE Texas. By Thursday
evening, another weak shortwave will pass over our CWA. Paired with
increasing moisture from onshore flow, some high clouds may develop
along the coast Thursday night. Lows will continue to warm, only
falling into the 40s Thursday night.

03


.LONG TERM [Friday Through Wednesday]...

Today (February 9th) is National Pizza Day, so I`m going to spice
things up a bit! See if you can spot all of the puns sprinkled in
below...hopefully they won`t be too cheesy.

Pleasant weather continues into Friday with mostly sunny skies,
but we will have above normal temperatures with highs in the low
70s. With the flow aloft becoming southwesterly ahead of an
approaching mid/upper level trough, I trended temperatures a
couple of degrees above guidance. Al-dough, coastal locations will
remain near seasonal with highs in the mid 60s. The next cold
front is still on tap to push through on Saturday. GFS/NAM/ECMWF
have clustered around a Saturday morning FROPA, so Saturday`s high
temperatures have been nudged below guidance. Speaking of the
models, they have trended drier today with PWATs remaining
generally lower than 0.9". Closer to the coast, PWATs will range
from 0.9" to 1.1". All that being said, I`m still keeping in 20%
PoPs for Saturday. Breezy northerly winds will follow in the wake
of the front along with much colder air. Low temperatures return
back into the low 30s on Saturday night for northern locations and
mid to upper 30s elsewhere. Sunday will remain on the cool side
as well with highs in the mid to upper 50s and lows in the upper
30s. Enjoy this slice of colder daytime temperatures while you can
though.

Surface high pressure slides east of Southeast Texas on late Monday
and coincides with the return of ridging aloft. This will cause a
quick rise in temperatures with highs in the upper 60s on Monday and
the low 70s on Tuesday. WAA and moisture advection will persist into
midweek. On Tuesday, a deep upper-level trough will dig down into
the Southwestern CONUS and introduces southwesterly flow aloft. This
places us in the pipeline for shortwaves embedded in the flow. By
early Wednesday, we`ll have enough moisture in place for PVA to work
with and develop rain showers across the area. Additionally, a round
of sea fog is possible beginning on Wednesday as a result of the
increase in moisture as well.

Stepping back to that trough...as it works its way eastward over the
week, it will induce lee cyclogenesis which looks to be the source
of a late week cold front. With surface low pressure developing near
the Panhandles on Wednesday, WAA will strengthen. While it won`t
quite feel like we`re in the oven, it`ll be fairly warm for this
time of year with highs likely reaching the mid 70s. FROPA timing is
a bit beyond the long term period at this point, but in case you
knead to know, current model trends are pointing towards Thursday
with plenty of rainfall expected as it passes through. The strength
of this front isn`t exactly a pizza cake either...the lower/upper
quartile split for MaxT and MinT values is ~20-25 degrees! This
will be something to keep an eye on.

Batiste


.MARINE...

With surface high pressure overhead, light winds and low seas will
continue to prevail into Saturday when a cold front will push
through. Small chance of rain showers with this frontal passage, but
the main impacts will be moderate to strong northerly winds and
increasing seas in the wake of the front. Small Craft Advisories
will be needed Saturday afternoon through Sunday. Winds and seas
gradually subside through Sunday. Onshore flow returns by late
Monday/early Tuesday as surface high pressure slides eastward. The
onshore flow steadily increases moisture through midweek, which will
likely lead to another round of sea fog Wednesday/Thursday.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 69 36 70 39 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 69 38 70 40 72 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 62 49 64 49 64 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$


AVIATION...Brokamp

[mcheer23]

New EURO model shows temps near 90 in south texas.
Upper 70s to about 80 locally.

[Stratton20]

Heck no, Euro is on something strong!

[mcheer23]

Heck no, Euro is on something strong!

Very possible we will have temps near 80 next Thursday... Depends on the speed of the front.

[tireman4]

00
FXUS64 KHGX 091747
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1147 AM CST Wed Feb 9 2022

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

VFR conditions prevail as high pressure remains over the area
bringing clear skies. Westerly winds between 5 and 10 knots today
will becoming light and variable tonight, then more southwesterly
tomorrow. Guidance is picking up on some low fog potential for
areas south of I-10. Should be fairly dry, so not expecting
anything more than some patchy ground fog. Put in a few hours of 4
to 6 mile visibilities at LBX, SGR, and HOU late tonight. Any fog
that does form will quickly dissipate by sunrise tomorrow.

Fowler

[don]

Late next weeks storm system sure looks potent.As for right now we look to stay mainly in the warm sector of the storm.We would need a large shift south in the storm track to get anything wintry out of the system.Regardless it will be interesting to see how it unfolds.

[jasons2k]

New EURO model shows temps near 90 in south texas.
Upper 70s to about 80 locally.

Spring is coming…

[Stratton20]

Yup winter is over lol

[Kingwood36]

Yup winter is over lol

What winter?!?!!?lol a cpl of cold days and a few sleet pellets( or different in you're case) but this winter has sucked

[Ptarmigan]

Winter has not ended yet.

[Cpv17]

Late next weeks storm system sure looks potent.As for right now we look to stay mainly in the warm sector of the storm.We would need a large shift south in the storm track to get anything wintry out of the system.Regardless it will be interesting to see how it unfolds.

It doesn’t really look like much for us at the current time. The GFS and Euro both have less than an inch for most of us throughout the end of their runs.

[jasons2k]

Winter has not ended yet.

I dunno. We may not have another freeze this winter. It will be much harder after this weekend’s system and so far my lowest forecast temp is 34.

[Stratton20]

That late week system doesn't look good for us, dont see much rain out of it, i suspect this board will be quiet as crickets for the foreseeable future, nothing interesting showing up in the models right now, that dreaded SE Ridge looks to keep storm systems passing us by well to the north unfortunately

[Cpv17]

That late week system doesn't look good for us, dont see much rain out of it, i suspect this board will be quiet as crickets for the foreseeable future, nothing interesting showing up in the models right now, that dreaded SE Ridge looks to keep storm systems passing us by well to the north unfortunately

Well the latest Euro doesn’t look too bad for rain. Much better chances in Louisiana though but the GFS is definitely crickets for southeast TX.

[redneckweather]

Strong signs of Spring will start to appear over the next 2 weeks in Southeast Texas. I wouldn't be surprised if a few bluebonnets have already poked out. The sooner we get February behind us the better.