February 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Stratton20
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CPV17 yep, that SE Ridge is probably gonna screw ye though, just hope we can avoid the 80’s at least for a while longer, I am not ready for warm temperatures
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don
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Cpv17 wrote: Wed Feb 09, 2022 7:23 pm
don wrote: Wed Feb 09, 2022 2:41 pm Late next weeks storm system sure looks potent.As for right now we look to stay mainly in the warm sector of the storm.We would need a large shift south in the storm track to get anything wintry out of the system.Regardless it will be interesting to see how it unfolds.
It doesn’t really look like much for us at the current time. The GFS and Euro both have less than an inch for most of us throughout the end of their runs.
I know, that's why i mentioned the northerly storm track the models show.With a track that far north there would be issues breaking the cap down here.
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jasons2k
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don wrote: Thu Feb 10, 2022 10:04 am
Cpv17 wrote: Wed Feb 09, 2022 7:23 pm
don wrote: Wed Feb 09, 2022 2:41 pm Late next weeks storm system sure looks potent.As for right now we look to stay mainly in the warm sector of the storm.We would need a large shift south in the storm track to get anything wintry out of the system.Regardless it will be interesting to see how it unfolds.
It doesn’t really look like much for us at the current time. The GFS and Euro both have less than an inch for most of us throughout the end of their runs.
I know, that's why i mentioned the northerly storm track the models show.With a track that far north there would be issues breaking the cap down here.
I'm concerned the transition to a late-Springlike pattern will be quick and before long we will be complaining about the cap and lack of rain.
Stratton20
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Fwiw the 12z Euro shows more moisture to work with as the system for valentines day moves through, profuces a rain/snow mix for central texas
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 101730
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1130 AM CST Thu Feb 10 2022

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

VFR throughout for all but LBX and GLS. Light/VRB winds until
tomorrow, when a more decided southwesterly wind of 5 to 10 kts
emerges. Could get gusty at times in the afternoon.

Meanwhile, at the coast, overnight fog expected again tonight at
LBX and GLS. Forecast is close to persistence for fog as
environment is pretty similar. Left SGR out of the fog party for
now, but an alternate scenario is for fog to crop up here as well.
Keep an eye on future forecast cycles here if confidence
increases.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 609 AM CST Thu Feb 10 2022/...



.SHORT TERM [Today Through Friday Night]...

Currently, patchy to areas of fog have begun to develop across
portions of our coastal counties and some patchy, dense fog across
the Pineywoods area (Conroe, Livingston, Crockett) early this
morning. This fog should begin to clear after sunrise.

High pressure should continue to dominate, keeping benign conditions
across SE Texas today and into Friday. A surface high over the
western Gulf will keep light W/S winds today into tonight. High
clouds will move across our CWA early in the morning, then later
scatter out during the day. Highs should keep warming, rising into
the 70s throughout our area. Lows will cool into the 40s overnight.
With light, onshore winds and temperatures nearing the dewpoint,
patchy to areas of fog remains possible along areas south of Conroe
late tonight through Friday morning.

The pressure gradient will tighten ahead of an approaching cold
front, bringing moderate S/SW winds throughout SE Texas by Friday
afternoon. Mostly clear skies should allow for decent radiational
heating, and in effect, raise high temperatures towards the mid 70s
across our CWA. By Friday night, winds should become light once
again. Clear skies will allow temperatures to cool into the mid 40s
overnight. Low temperatures should near the dewpoint again, with
patchy fog possible along the coast Friday night. Cloud cover will
develop late Friday night just ahead of the approaching cold
front.
03


.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Thursday]...

Opa! FROPA! The incoming cold front will push through Southeast
Texas on Saturday morning and bring along with it a slight chance of
rain. Model guidance is still hovering PWATs generally between 0.9"-
1.0", which is fairly close to the 75th percentile (1.05"). With
moisture convergence along the frontal boundary, rain showers are a
definite possibility especially for locations closer to the coast.
Rain chances come to an end by Saturday afternoon as drier air
funnels in behind the front with strong surface high pressure
building in. Now this front won`t be strong enough to knock
temperatures down throughout the day, but Saturday will still be
fairly cool with highs in the upper 50s/low 60s. These are a tad bit
below NBM guidance, but even then some models are showing even
cooler temperatures for Saturday`s highs. A light freeze is expected
on Saturday night for Conroe and locations northward as lows dip
down into the low 30s. Elsewhere, expect lows in the mid to upper
30s.

On Sunday, high temperatures top out in the low 60s. Usually we see
the coldest temperatures on the second night following a cold front,
and that would be the case if surface high pressure wasn`t on the
express lane outta here. Surface high pressure quickly moves
eastward on Sunday night cutting off CAA and returning onshore flow,
so temperatures will be about 6-8 degrees warmer compared to
Saturday night. Look for this trend to continue as ridging aloft
returns by early Monday leading to quite the warming trend through
midweek. Buckle up for the temperature roller coaster cause we`re
going for a ride! Highs will reach the upper 60s by Monday and
the low 70s by Tuesday...and it doesn`t stop there. Before we get
to that though, let`s talk more about Tuesday. This is when a deep
mid/upper level trough will dig down into the southwestern CONUS.
By Wednesday, our flow aloft will have shifted to southwesterly
allowing for increased WAA. Also remember that our moisture will
still be on the rise with the persistent onshore flow. This is
likely to result in two things: sea fog and rain.

Water temperatures in the nearshore waters are in the low 50s, and
with the cold front over the weekend they likely won`t get any
higher. By early Wednesday, dew points will reach the upper 50s and
continue to climb into the low 60s through Thursday. Resultingly,
the potential for sea fog is definitely there. As for the rain,
PWATs will exceed 1.0" by early Wednesday. The southwesterly flow
aloft places Southeast Texas in prime position for shortwaves
embedded in the flow to push our way. With increasing PVA as the
trough approaches, rain showers could develop as early as Wednesday
morning. This trough will also induce lee cyclogenesis on Wednesday
with developing surface low pressure near the Texas/Oklahoma
panhandles. With a tightening pressure gradient, WAA will strengthen
as well. Even though its quite a ways out, I felt comfortable
nudging temperatures up above guidance to reflect highs in the mid
70s for Wednesday. Rain and sea fog will remain possible until our
next cold front (associated with the area of low pressure) pushes
through on Thursday.

Timing of the next front looks iffy, which isn`t surprising with it
being a week out. The Canadian shows an early Thursday FROPA whereas
the GFS/ECMWF actually agree for once with late Thursday FROPA. Went
with NBM deterministic for Thursday`s temperatures due to the
uncertainty of the timing, but I do want to point out the variance
since we talked about this yesterday. The difference between the
lower and upper quartiles for MaxT/MinT values for Thursday is now
ONLY ~15-18 degrees. Suffice to say...things are still quite
uncertain, but for what it`s worth there is a general downward trend
in temperatures late next week.

Batiste


.MARINE...

Favorable marine conditions will continue into Saturday with lights
winds and low seas prevailing thanks to surface high pressure
overhead. A cold front will push through the waters on Saturday.
Rain showers will be possible both ahead of and along the frontal
boundary, but the main impacts will be moderate to strong northerly
winds and building seas. Small Craft Advisories will be needed
Saturday afternoon through Sunday as a result. Winds and seas
gradually subside throughout the day on Sunday. Onshore flow returns
by Monday as surface high pressure slides out to the east. The
onshore flow will continue to steadily increase both moisture and
temperatures through the middle of next week, which could lead to
another round of sea fog for Wednesday/Thursday with cool water
temperatures persisting.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 40 74 45 59 32 / 0 0 10 10 0
Houston (IAH) 41 73 46 62 36 / 0 0 10 20 0
Galveston (GLS) 49 65 51 60 42 / 0 0 10 20 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM...Batiste
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Batiste
TexasBreeze
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The recent chatter nowadays seems to favor looking forward to storm and warm air season coming for the southern plains with any snow way up north. February thaw in full force! Unfortunately down here cap season tends to rule the roost.
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DoctorMu
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TBH, this has been a good, relatively sunny winter after the prolonged humidity and Fall into December.

Keep in mind that severe season comes earlier and earlier. While cap is likely over Houston, it could go either way up near CLL.
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DoctorMu
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Moisture coming in next Tuesday and Wednesday. Just enjoying the dry air and low dewpoints while they last!

Dead weeds. No A/C. No sprinklers on.

Rain early Saturday with the FROPA but should clear quickly.
Stratton20
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18z Euro still shows a rain/snow mix saturday for central texas, SE Texas looks unlikely to get anything more than some scattered showers though
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sambucol
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Stratton20 wrote: Thu Feb 10, 2022 7:52 pm 18z Euro still shows a rain/snow mix saturday for central texas, SE Texas looks unlikely to get anything more than some scattered showers though
What do the temps look like for SETX?
Stratton20
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Sambucol upper 40’s to low 50’s, also this is one model, some others aren't showing much moisture at all, even if it happens it will likely be more of a novelty
Stratton20
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06z GFS picking up a potentially strong disturbance next weekend, friday/saturday timeframe, we will see
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mcheer23
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High temp tomorrow might be in the late morning hours...falling into the upper 40's and low 50's in the afternoon...
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 111212
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
612 AM CST Fri Feb 11 2022

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Areas of patchy to dense fog have developed across some of our
southern terminals overnight and will continue to bring IFR to
LIFR VIS into this morning (clearing by 15z today). As the
pressure gradient tightens, winds will become moderate across our
northern TAF sites (KCLL and KUTS) this afternoon, later becoming
light once again overnight. Another round of fog is likely
tonight, though its duration will be cut short by an approaching
cold front from the NW. This front should enter the Brazos Valley
around 08z Saturday, making it`s way offshore by 12z. Stratiform
showers, low CIGS (MVFR to IFR), and strong northerly winds will
develop in the wake of the FROPA.
03




&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 423 AM CST Fri Feb 11 2022/...



.SHORT TERM [Through Saturday Night]...

Patchy to areas of fog have developed across our SW counties early
this morning. Light winds and clear skies will allow this fog to
continue to develop up until sunrise, clearing out shortly
thereafter.

Today, the pressure gradient will tighten ahead of an approaching
cold front, bringing moderate S/SW winds throughout SE Texas by this
afternoon. Clear skies and warm air advection from the SW will
enhance daytime heating, with high temperatures reaching the mid 70s
across our area. As winds calm into the evening, fog will once again
be possible across the coastal plains overnight, though it`s
development will be limited by the approaching cold front. This
front will move into the Brazos valley late tonight, moving offshore
by Saturday morning. Low temperatures will depend on how quick this
cold front moves through SE Texas. Lows are currently forecasted to
be in the 50s across SE Texas, though if the front moves in quicker,
we may see temperatures fall into the 40s.

This cold front will also bring stratiform rain and overcast
conditions across our area throughout Saturday, with these showers
moving offshore Saturday evening. Strong northerly winds will
develop throughout SE Texas Saturday morning. Highs will be in the
50s, though temperatures could go higher if cloud cover clears
quicker. As high pressure sets in saturday evening, winds will
become moderate as skies clear out. Paired with cold air advection
from the north, lows will drop into the 30s Saturday night, falling
below freezing across our northern counties. 03


.LONG TERM [Sunday through Friday]...

Dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures are
expected through mid-week. Rain and storm chances return late
Wednesday into the end of the workweek.

Ridging aloft builds in over the Southwest CONUS, with a sfc high
pressure centered over South Texas by Sunday. Light northerly sfc
winds and clear skies will allow for temperatures to climb from
the upper 50s to low 60s. Sfc high pressure centered to our south,
will quickly move eastward on Sunday night, resulting in onshore
flow through the night. This will result in overnight lows a few
degrees warmer than the previous night, but still cold. Lows will
dip into the 30s inland and in the 40s along the islands.

Sfc high to our east will continue to dominate the weather
pattern Monday and Tuesday, keeping our region under a consistent
southerly flow. Temperatures will gradually warm into the low 70s
by Tuesday. It will also be breezy late on Tuesday as pressure
gradient tightens in response to a mid to upper low moving over
the Pacific Northwest and a lee-cyclogenesis developing over the
Southern Rockies. This low pressure system over the Rockies is the
one that we will continue to monitor for the remainder of the
long-term period.

By Wednesday, southwesterly flow aloft and persistent south flow
at the surface will allow for efficient warm air advection and
hence, chance for showers and an increased potential for fog.
Highs will mainly be in the mid 70s. A warm front will lift into
our region, brining showers and isolated thunderstorms through the
day.

Attention then turns into late Wednesday night into Thursday as
the aforementioned upper-level low and associated surface boundary
moves over the region. Latest model runs are in better agreement
with the phase and amplitude of this system. With increasing
forcing aloft and steep low to mid level lapse rates, showers and
thunderstorms are expected in the wake of the front. Cooler and
drier conditions will filter in behind the front.


.MARINE....

High pressure over the western Gulf will continue to bring light
onshore flow and low seas through Friday night. A strong cold front
will push through the coastal waters early Saturday morning,
bringing strong offshore flow and elevated seas behind the boundary.
Isolated to scattered showers are expected along and behind the
front during the day on Saturday. Gale-force winds and building seas
up to 9 ft will be possible late Saturday afternoon and evening. A
Gale Watch is in effect through this period. Winds and seas will
slowly improve during the day on Sunday. Light to moderate onshore
winds resume by Monday, becoming moderate to strong at times. With
persistent warm southerly flow, sea fog will be possible Tuesday
night into Wednesday. Caution flags and/or Small Craft Advisories
may be needed at times through the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 74 49 53 31 62 / 0 10 30 0 0
Houston (IAH) 74 50 55 35 61 / 0 0 50 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 64 54 56 42 56 / 0 0 50 10 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for
the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport
to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

SHORT TERM...03/Cady
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...Brokamp
MARINE...05
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sambucol
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mcheer23 wrote: Fri Feb 11, 2022 10:58 am High temp tomorrow might be in the late morning hours...falling into the upper 40's and low 50's in the afternoon...
Sounds great! Are we going to have freezing temps tomorrow or Sunday night?
Cpv17
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Overall it looks like the weather is gonna be very boring around here for the next week or two. Storm track looks to be well to the north of us. Surprise surprise.
Stratton20
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Cpv17 yep its looking that way, yawn!😴😴
Stratton20
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18z GFS, maybe some light snow up around Huntsville / college station? Its been hinting at this the past few runs , if it does happen, maybe a light dusting to an inch, likely a novelty, just something interesting though
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jasons2k
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sambucol wrote: Fri Feb 11, 2022 12:30 pm
mcheer23 wrote: Fri Feb 11, 2022 10:58 am High temp tomorrow might be in the late morning hours...falling into the upper 40's and low 50's in the afternoon...
Sounds great! Are we going to have freezing temps tomorrow or Sunday night?
Not down there. My forecast low tomorrow night has been lowered to 32°F. Gonna be close. But at this point, it doesn't matter - the damage is done. Just ready for the last freeze to pass so I can get on with my cleanup and re-planting.

Last two afternoons have been perfect for a run - at least for me.
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jasons2k
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This weather is just nasty. Awful. Yuck.
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