February 2022

[don]

12Z CMC...
Its early but im looking at two things that may allow the cold air to come in quicker and more aggressive than the winter storm earlier this month.

1. The placement of the high looks to be in a better position this time.Instead of being to our northeast like the last time,models have the high sitting to our north/northwest in the central plains.This is important because part of the reason we were saved from getting significant icing was the Ozarks/Ouachita effect.Since the arctic air was spilling in from the northeast of us the mountains helped to slow down the progression of cold air over east Texas.That doesn't look to be the case this time due to the placement of the high.The main thing that will slow down the cold air advection would be the SE ridge.While the last time we had both the SE ridge and quachita effect slowing down the arctic air.
2. Earlier in the month there wasn't a lot of snowpack north of us, which allowed the air to modify more.Looks like this time the snowpack will be much greater in the plains and Rockies than with the last storm.

[Iceresistance]

Oh Jeez

[djmike]

So far looks like Beaumont is left out if it all again. Lol

[Kingwood36]

Thing is will it be cold enough for anything to fall? 2 times I was put under a winter weather advisory and we got nothing..well maybe 1 sleet pellet lol but it was all rain

[Stratton20]

Kingwood36 might be a different story this time, wit the snowpack up north greater than what it was a month ago , that arctic air will be less modified

[Cpv17]

So far looks like Beaumont is left out if it all again. Lol

Too close to the southeast ridge.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 171802
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1202 PM CST Thu Feb 17 2022

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

Drier air is funneling into Southeast Texas following the passage
of a pre-frontal trough. Lingering MVFR ceilings will gradually
improve to VFR over the next few hours. The cold air and gustier
winds will move in this afternoon once the cold front pushes
through the area. On visible satellite, the cold front is easily
noticeable along the leading edge of the overcast cloud deck in
North Texas. Current METARs within this cloud deck point to a
mixture of IFR/MVFR cloud ceilings. Model trends are point towards
only CXO and northward being impacted by MVFR ceilings this
afternoon, but there is a possibility that they could extend
further south into the Houston metro area by the evening hours.
Winds will switch to northwesterly following the passage of the
cold front and expect the gusty winds to persist into the
overnight hours. As dry air continues to funnel in and surface
high pressure approaches, VFR conditions return overnight. Winds
will be on a decreasing trend throughout Friday as a result, but
we`ll still have lingering upper-level clouds throughout the day
especially for our northern sites.

Batiste

[walsean1]

This is crazy how it was looking like winter was over after the last cold snap but how quickly forecast can change. I saw Channel 11 David Paul showing the viewers that during the Feb 28-March 3 period, we could see an Arctic airmass drive Al the way down to our region. The forecast will change a lot and we will see. Even with the threat of a Winter storm in our region, we shall see.

[Stratton20]

Im taking the 12z Euro run and flushing it down the toilet 🗑 what a garbage run, no arctic air and the ridge has too much of an influence, luckily it is an outlier right now

[don]

Yep its unlikely that the front will stall like the EURO is showing.That arctic high looks strong with very shallow arctic air that should be able to move in at the surface underneath the 500mb high(SE ridge).

[mcheer23]

Up to moderate

[don]

Wow very interesting...their confidence is growing.

[Cpv17]

The latest 6-10 day and 8-14 day forecasts issued by the CPC is a thing of beauty!!!

[tireman4]

Here we go.......

[Cpv17]

Im taking the 12z Euro run and flushing it down the toilet 🗑 what a garbage run, no arctic air and the ridge has too much of an influence, luckily it is an outlier right now

The Euro did the same thing with the last cold outbreak earlier this month. Looked promising in the 7-10 day range and then slowly started losing it. It doesn’t handle shallow cold Artic airmasses well whatsoever. It gets them right initially then loses it. If we’re lucky it might start to pick back up on it within 3 days but I wouldn’t really count on it. Lots of times it can’t even initialize temperatures correctly so how’s it supposed to get something right 4, 5, 6 days out when it can’t even get present time temps right.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 remember when the euro suggested no arctic blast last february? man did that age like sour milk

[Stratton20]

18z GFS develops a winter storm

[Kingwood36]

18z GFS develops a winter storm

Not here

[Cpv17]

18z GFS develops a winter storm

Not here

Long ways out still. Key takeaways is that it’s still showing a storm system coming in with cold.

[DoctorMu]

Up to moderate

Well, that escalated quickly.

Even in this front the cold is overperforming. We've dropped 25°F and tanking faster than the Brooklyn Nets (Knicks decades of irrelevance almost forgotten) in the last 2 hours.

Maybe a measly 0.1 inch, but we had rain earlier in the week. Everything is brown anyway.

18z GFS on board with another Hwy 1*5 special: