February 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Stratton20
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Bring on the cold! Ill take it over 80’s any day of the week!🙂
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Ptarmigan
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It is still winter. It can even get cold into March and even April.
Cpv17
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This might be about the biggest forecast bust I’ve seen. I thought for sure they would lower the forecast temps today but nope it still hasn’t happened. They’re 100% going with the global models over the mesoscale models. Time will tell but I’m already telling everyone at work and in my family that it’s going to be a lot colder than what’s currently forecasted.
Stratton20
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Cpv17 just saw a post from Pow Ponder today and he said the Euro is running 15-20 degrees too warm compared to current temps behind the front up north, definitely going to be way colder than forecasted
Kingwood36
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High's in the 50s and 60s and lows in the 40s and upper 30s for my area isn't that cold lol..looks like another normal cold front
Cpv17
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Kingwood36 wrote: Mon Feb 21, 2022 7:51 pm High's in the 50s and 60s and lows in the 40s and upper 30s for my area isn't that cold lol..looks like another normal cold front
Yeah but you’re smart enough (I hope) not to believe that.
Stratton20
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Kingwood36 considering that the Euro is already way too warm, and this front is looking more potent, id definitely be ready for way colder conditions than that
Cpv17
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0z HRRR now has the front coming through Wednesday morning.
kyzsl51
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I just want it be cool to cold....I love winter weather and wearing sweaters etc....we lost December and it will be hot starting from May for 6 months lol
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jasons2k
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This is my “official” forecast. May re-post on Friday to verify.
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Stratton20
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Things could get slightly interesting up in my neck of the woods, 00z NAM has my area around 31-32 degrees with some moisture around, this front means business and i really think the global models are useless at this point if they are underestimating the cold air this poorly
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Cpv17
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Yep! Models definitely got even more interesting tonight.
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sambucol
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Cpv17 wrote: Mon Feb 21, 2022 9:28 pm Yep! Models definitely got even more interesting tonight.
Is the cold front going to make it to the coast?
Cpv17
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sambucol wrote: Mon Feb 21, 2022 9:45 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Mon Feb 21, 2022 9:28 pm Yep! Models definitely got even more interesting tonight.
Is the cold front going to make it to the coast?
According to the mesoscale models, yes.
Stratton20
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Heres a better view of the NAM , man this would be nasty if this model is right, heck even some of our NW Counties are on the border of this potential event🥶🥶
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walsean1
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Here is a tweet from ABC 13 David Tillman hinting at the models not handling the shallow Cold Air.

https://twitter.com/tillmanweather/stat ... 53992?s=21
Cpv17
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There’s going to be a pretty big temp gradient from west to east across our viewing area when this front comes through. This could be one of those cases where Victoria might be colder than Houston.
Cpv17
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Latest guidance has the front now pushing through late tonight into early tomorrow morning. Tomorrow looks like a cold day all day.
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don
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Yep HGX is going to bust big time if they don't update the forecast today.They're still going with the global models instead of the mesoscale models...They've been doing this for years with these shallow arctic air masses.
Stratton20
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Yep the NAM has me in the 30’s all day long, big time bust incoming
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