February 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
mcheer23
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18z HRRR keeps most of SE TX in the 30s and 40s tomorrow
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sambucol
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mcheer23 wrote: Tue Feb 22, 2022 2:09 pm 18z HRRR keeps most of SE TX in the 30s and 40s tomorrow
Will SETX have freezing temps?
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jasons2k
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This is gonna bust. This is fed on my Outlook banner brought to you by foreca.com.....
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Andrew
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Pretty amazing how far off the global models were with the stalling of this front. Instead of being in the upper 70s / low 80s tomorrow, most locations will be 30-40 degrees colder with temps in the 40-50s during the late morning and struggling to get any warmer than that during the afternoon. The globals still say return flow will occur briefly on Thursday before the reinforcing cold front pushes everything through, but some of the mesoscale models indicate that won't happen and we stay on the cold side of things through the rest of the week.
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jasons2k
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Andrew wrote: Tue Feb 22, 2022 4:07 pm Pretty amazing how far off the global models were with the stalling of this front. Instead of being in the upper 70s / low 80s tomorrow, most locations will be 30-40 degrees colder with temps in the 40-50s during the late morning and struggling to get any warmer than that during the afternoon. The globals still say return flow will occur briefly on Thursday before the reinforcing cold front pushes everything through, but some of the mesoscale models indicate that won't happen and we stay on the cold side of things through the rest of the week.
This is precisely why during tropical season we preach “don’t hug the models!!”

The same applies to winter storms as well.

Old-fashioned good forecasting and rules of thumb would prevent so much uncertainty in the “forecasts”….
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DoctorMu
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Andrew wrote: Tue Feb 22, 2022 4:07 pm Pretty amazing how far off the global models were with the stalling of this front. Instead of being in the upper 70s / low 80s tomorrow, most locations will be 30-40 degrees colder with temps in the 40-50s during the late morning and struggling to get any warmer than that during the afternoon. The globals still say return flow will occur briefly on Thursday before the reinforcing cold front pushes everything through, but some of the mesoscale models indicate that won't happen and we stay on the cold side of things through the rest of the week.
Folks. The front is already through CLL. Getting colder by the minute. Overperforming as expected...and I wouldn't not be surprised to see the front barrel to the coast well ahead of schedule.

The advection here has started.
Stratton20
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Doctormu Yep alreadt starting to feel the temps drop, will be interesting to see how far we drop tonight, then with the moisture moving in tommorow, could get interesting potentially
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DoctorMu
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The cold front is nearing Bellville - Hempstead - Magnolia now.
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DoctorMu
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Stratton20 wrote: Tue Feb 22, 2022 5:29 pm Doctormu Yep alreadt starting to feel the temps drop, will be interesting to see how far we drop tonight, then with the moisture moving in tommorow, could get interesting potentially
High of 81°F

I'm calling a low of 38°F.

We could stay in the 30s all day tomorrow after sunrise.

The high for tomorrow will be at midnight - mid 40s.
Stratton20
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DoctorMu from 81 to being in the 30’s all day potentially, only in Texas!😆😆
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