March 2022

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 yeah i saw that, not gonna be a good day, hopefully nothing serious happens

[DoctorMu]

HGX is taking it seriously, they never add severe thunderstorms to the forecast grids this far in advance.

From there afternoon discussion just released.

Severe weather event looking more likely for the area on Monday.

PWAT increasing going into Monday and will be dealing with strong
dynamics ahead of the cold front and dryline on Monday with the cap
eroding as the day goes on. Very favorable conditions for severe
weather arise over SETX with instability at a premium (thanks to the
very strong WAA-will probably need a wind advisory as well for
Monday) with very high shear. This far out the shear is probably
'smoothed out' and when the time comes will likely be much more
focused and higher. Have gone ahead and added severe wording to
Monday. The front of course is getting hung up with the upper low
slowing and the dryline makes an appearance this far east. After the
storms Monday expect some sort of residual boundary/boundaries over
the area as a focus for more storms though most likely with a
diminished shear profile but more likely to favor slow
moving/backbuilding-ish rainfall threat Monday night/Tuesday morning
before eventually the deep dry air sweeps through off the Mexican
Plateau.

Yeah, you don't want to see "it's probably going to be even worse than it looks now" messaging.

[DoctorMu]

Boy im really hoping this severe weather event on monday is a huge bust, we dont need any of that here

College Station might be in the bullseye.

Going into to modify insurance policy on our house tomorrow. Could need a new roof on Tuesday.

[captainbarbossa19]

There’s a huge difference between the Euro and GFS. GFS is pretty much crickets, while the Euro has 1-2” over a good part of southeast TX. The GFS has higher amounts towards the Golden Triangle and into LA. The Euro has huge totals towards central and north TX.

Yeah what's weird is that now the GFS shows me getting more rain than the Euro. I don't know who to route for anymore. Haha!

[Stratton20]

DoctorMu i live and share an apartment with a roomate, im kinda lucky as its a 5 story apartment and im not on the top floor, so damage should be minimal, but i really hope we dont get any serious damage on campus though

[Ptarmigan]

There are massive wildfires around Carbon. The town may have burned down.

https://twitter.com/Fox4Weather/status/ ... 6636354584

[txbear]

There are massive wildfires around Carbon. The town may have burned down.

https://twitter.com/Fox4Weather/status/ ... 6636354584

Pretty sure I'm smelling the smoke and a tinge of color against the moon because of that complex and other fires. Big Country and surrounding areas are tinderbox dry.

Abilene had a bit of an emergency yesterday due to fire that ignited on the northwest side near the Air Force Base. I believe they had an evacuation order temporarily for a portion of the city. Crazy.

[Cromagnum]

Strong smell of smoke all the way down in Brazoria County today.

[don]

From HGX this morning regarding Monday/Tuesday

Monday and Tuesday... The main weather concern in the long term
period will be Monday and Tuesday with the potential for severe
weather and heavy rainfall across parts of the region. A strong
closed upper-low will develop over the Four Corners, while a sfc
low develops over western TX and moves eastward into the Southern
Plains. Latest deterministic and ensemble means show a decent
agreement with the phase/timing of this system, but some
divergence still persist in terms of strength/intensity.
Southeast TX will be positioned in the warm sector with steep low
to mid level lapse rates (around 8C/km), strong deep layer shear
on the nose of a southwesterly low-level jet around 50 to 60
knots. In other words, the environment will be conducive for
strong to severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening. SPC
highlights well this risk on the Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook with
15 to 30 percent of probability of severe weather for Southeast
Texas. Dynamics also look favorable for an increasing risk for
locally heavy rainfall, mainly Monday night into Tuesday. As the
aforementioned upper-low moves northeastward into the Central/High
Plains Monday night into Tuesday, some residual/outflow
boundaries may favor slow moving or training convection into early
Tuesday. Will continue to monitor this period. Details on
placement of the heaviest precipitation and specific threats will
be monitored closely in the next couple of days.

[tireman4]

There are massive wildfires around Carbon. The town may have burned down.

https://twitter.com/Fox4Weather/status/ ... 6636354584

Pretty sure I'm smelling the smoke and a tinge of color against the moon because of that complex and other fires. Big Country and surrounding areas are tinderbox dry.

Abilene had a bit of an emergency yesterday due to fire that ignited on the northwest side near the Air Force Base. I believe they had an evacuation order temporarily for a portion of the city. Crazy.

When I was going to school up there (84/85), I have driven and spent some time in Carbon. Very small town.

[Cpv17]

From HGX this morning regarding Monday/Tuesday

Monday and Tuesday... The main weather concern in the long term
period will be Monday and Tuesday with the potential for severe
weather and heavy rainfall across parts of the region. A strong
closed upper-low will develop over the Four Corners, while a sfc
low develops over western TX and moves eastward into the Southern
Plains. Latest deterministic and ensemble means show a decent
agreement with the phase/timing of this system, but some
divergence still persist in terms of strength/intensity.
Southeast TX will be positioned in the warm sector with steep low
to mid level lapse rates (around 8C/km), strong deep layer shear
on the nose of a southwesterly low-level jet around 50 to 60
knots. In other words, the environment will be conducive for
strong to severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening. SPC
highlights well this risk on the Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook with
15 to 30 percent of probability of severe weather for Southeast
Texas. Dynamics also look favorable for an increasing risk for
locally heavy rainfall, mainly Monday night into Tuesday. As the
aforementioned upper-low moves northeastward into the Central/High
Plains Monday night into Tuesday, some residual/outflow
boundaries may favor slow moving or training convection into early
Tuesday. Will continue to monitor this period. Details on
placement of the heaviest precipitation and specific threats will
be monitored closely in the next couple of days.

I bet most of it will be north of us. It looked more promising a few days ago. Hope I’m wrong. Everyone could use a couple inches.

[txbear]

There are massive wildfires around Carbon. The town may have burned down.

https://twitter.com/Fox4Weather/status/ ... 6636354584

Pretty sure I'm smelling the smoke and a tinge of color against the moon because of that complex and other fires. Big Country and surrounding areas are tinderbox dry.

Abilene had a bit of an emergency yesterday due to fire that ignited on the northwest side near the Air Force Base. I believe they had an evacuation order temporarily for a portion of the city. Crazy.

When I was going to school up there (84/85), I have driven and spent some time in Carbon. Very small town.

A dot in the road, but there are certainly people who live there and really feel for them. I believe the fire made its way down Hwy 6 towards Gorman as well.

Logged many miles from I-20 down Hwy 6, and know that entire region well. Tough to see it as dry as it is and burning up.

[don]

From HGX this morning regarding Monday/Tuesday

Monday and Tuesday... The main weather concern in the long term
period will be Monday and Tuesday with the potential for severe
weather and heavy rainfall across parts of the region. A strong
closed upper-low will develop over the Four Corners, while a sfc
low develops over western TX and moves eastward into the Southern
Plains. Latest deterministic and ensemble means show a decent
agreement with the phase/timing of this system, but some
divergence still persist in terms of strength/intensity.
Southeast TX will be positioned in the warm sector with steep low
to mid level lapse rates (around 8C/km), strong deep layer shear
on the nose of a southwesterly low-level jet around 50 to 60
knots. In other words, the environment will be conducive for
strong to severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening. SPC
highlights well this risk on the Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook with
15 to 30 percent of probability of severe weather for Southeast
Texas. Dynamics also look favorable for an increasing risk for
locally heavy rainfall, mainly Monday night into Tuesday. As the
aforementioned upper-low moves northeastward into the Central/High
Plains Monday night into Tuesday, some residual/outflow
boundaries may favor slow moving or training convection into early
Tuesday. Will continue to monitor this period. Details on
placement of the heaviest precipitation and specific threats will
be monitored closely in the next couple of days.

I bet most of it will be north of us. It looked more promising a few days ago. Hope I’m wrong. Everyone could use a couple inches.

As far as heavy rain goes that may be the case.As far as severe weather not so much.Its important to keep in mind the area of high qpf around the surface low will not be the primary area of severe weather.Its the areas to the southeast of the surface low in the warm sector.The lighter qpf that you see across the eastern half of the state is not necessarily a good thing.That hints that the global models may be seeing an environment of fast moving thunderstorm clusters and discreet cells.But the global models resolutions are not high enough to see the finer details.With these strong sheared environments models also sometimes underestimate the training of fast moving cells you can get over the same areas,which allows the qpf to add up. We saw that happen in January with the localized tornado outbreak.Where some areas received as much as 4-8+ inches of rain,while others saw nothing.

The northern 2/3rds of SE Texas look to have the greatest chance of seeing supercells.While the coastal counties may not get too much precip until the squall line or MCS overnight moves through. As the cap will be stronger the more south you go due to the SW flow aloft.

Monday afternoon will pose the greatest threat for discreet supercells posing a large hail and tornado threat.While Monday night/Tuesday morning will pose a greater risk of localized heavy rain.With a slow moving squall line or MCS moving through the area.Primary threat would be straight line winds with the overnight system.The mesoscale models will be the ones to watch over the next few days.

[Kingwood36]

Anyone know if this wind is suppose to die down tomorrow?

[mcheer23]

12z EURO rainfall amounts....

[don]

I notice models are coming in more south and vigorous with the second surface low that develops over south Texas and moves over us overnight Monday. Bringing in a slow moving MCS as the frontal boundary temporally stalls out,needs to be watched.12Z EURO shows a big uptake in precip totals.

[Stratton20]

Pow ponder said on his video today that their could be a moderate risk or a 4/5 on the severe weather threat issued

[Cpv17]

Pow ponder said on his video today that their could be a moderate risk or a 4/5 on the severe weather threat issued

I’ll have to watch that either when I get a break at work or when I get off. His channel is my favorite!

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 yeah hes so good! He breaks everything down in a way that even non weather “nerds” can understand haha

[don]

From HGX this afternoon.

The deep trough out west becomes a strong closed upper level low
Monday morning developing a surface low across the Southern Plains.
This system will begin to produce showers and thunderstorms across
Southeast Texas Monday afternoon and continue until the associated
cold front moves through Tuesday morning. The thunderstorms will not
only have the potential for strong to severe weather (CAPE values
over 2000 J/kg, mid-level lapse rates over 7 C/km, and high
effective shear are all favorable for severe thunderstorm
formation), but also locally heavy rainfall is also a possibility
due to the potential for training storms. SPC has placed most of the
region in a 15% chance for Severe Weather on Monday with areas north
of Conroe in a 30% chance. Exact details on the timing and location
of the severe weather potential will come into better view over the
weekend, so be sure to monitor the forecast in the coming days.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=1