Agreed Don. Yes this looks to be an intense event. My FB post earlier to let friends, family, and co-workers to be weather aware: An epic Saturday today "Chamber of Commence" weather day with highs in the 70s, light winds, sunny skies, and rare humidity in the teens and 20s. As good as it gets and peaceful but time to be weather aware:
Tomrrow is a weather change and much concern for Monday into Tuesday morning. From this afternoon's AFD from the Houston-Galveston NWS:
Tornadoes look to be the main hazard Monday and with the shear have some concerns that these will be fast moving and possibly longer lived tornadoes. Hail and damaging winds a concern but likely not nearly as high a concern.
March 2022
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Iceresistance
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Yeah, it's looking really ugly.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 19, 2022 9:08 pm iceresistance i definitely suspect a moderate risk could be issued tomorrow
I'm going to get storms as well, but not Supercells, yet, a High Risk is not out of the question if this trends even more scary.
Central & Southern Texas may get the Enhanced &/or Moderate if the other mesoscale models generally follow the 0z HRRR.
0Z 3K NAM showing discreet cells Monday night ahead of the MCS.
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captainbarbossa19
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Stratton20
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Yeah this would be bad, i remember visiting my grandparents a few years ago and we had a severe thunderstorm at midnight that produced a tornado near lufkin, that was such a scary experience
Looks like the SPC shifted the threat further back south and west more towards our area now. I bet a moderate risk will be issued tomorrow.
There is also a hatched area for the possibility of strong tornadoes.The WPC has also issued a Moderate Risk for flash flooding.
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Sun Mar 20 2022
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TEXAS
HILL COUNTRY AREA EASTWARD TO THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREA/SABINE
RIVER VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms appear likely to occur across an area centered over
eastern Texas and into western Louisiana starting Monday afternoon.
...Synopsis...
An upper trough moving across the western U.S. will shift into the
Plains states Monday, flanked on either side by pronounced ridging.
By the end of the period, the trough should extend from the eastern
Dakotas to western Texas.
At the surface, low pressure should shift out of New Mexico and
across western portions of Texas through the day, accompanied by a
trailing cold front, and a preceding dryline. By the end of the
period, expect the low to lie in the vicinity of eastern Oklahoma,
with a cold front trailing southward to the lower Texas Coast.
...Central/eastern Texas and vicinity...
A fairly substantial severe weather event remains evident from
roughly central Texas eastward, though some model guidance
indicating a slightly slower progression of synoptic features
supports a southward and westward shift to the overall area.
Otherwise, southerly/southeasterly low-level flow ahead of the
advancing system will allow Gulf air to advection inland across the
eastern half of Texas through the day. While warm-advection-induced
precipitation/thunderstorms will be ongoing early -- particularly
across Oklahoma and North Texas, heating of the moistening boundary
layer to the southwest of the cloud cover combined with steep lapse
rates aloft will result in moderate destabilization.
Expect thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon across central
Texas near the dryline, while other/ongoing storms farther east
become increasingly surface-based as the boundary layer warms. With
very strong mid-level southwesterlies (70 to 90 kt) spreading across
the southern Plains atop the low-level southerlies/southeasterlies,
shear will support supercells. Large hail is expected with the
initial dryline storms, along with potential for locally damaging
winds. Tornado potential is forecast to increase into the evening
and overnight, as convection moves eastward across Texas and
boundary-layer moistening continues. A few strong tornadoes will be
possible through the evening and into the overnight hours
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Sun Mar 20 2022
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TEXAS
HILL COUNTRY AREA EASTWARD TO THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREA/SABINE
RIVER VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms appear likely to occur across an area centered over
eastern Texas and into western Louisiana starting Monday afternoon.
...Synopsis...
An upper trough moving across the western U.S. will shift into the
Plains states Monday, flanked on either side by pronounced ridging.
By the end of the period, the trough should extend from the eastern
Dakotas to western Texas.
At the surface, low pressure should shift out of New Mexico and
across western portions of Texas through the day, accompanied by a
trailing cold front, and a preceding dryline. By the end of the
period, expect the low to lie in the vicinity of eastern Oklahoma,
with a cold front trailing southward to the lower Texas Coast.
...Central/eastern Texas and vicinity...
A fairly substantial severe weather event remains evident from
roughly central Texas eastward, though some model guidance
indicating a slightly slower progression of synoptic features
supports a southward and westward shift to the overall area.
Otherwise, southerly/southeasterly low-level flow ahead of the
advancing system will allow Gulf air to advection inland across the
eastern half of Texas through the day. While warm-advection-induced
precipitation/thunderstorms will be ongoing early -- particularly
across Oklahoma and North Texas, heating of the moistening boundary
layer to the southwest of the cloud cover combined with steep lapse
rates aloft will result in moderate destabilization.
Expect thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon across central
Texas near the dryline, while other/ongoing storms farther east
become increasingly surface-based as the boundary layer warms. With
very strong mid-level southwesterlies (70 to 90 kt) spreading across
the southern Plains atop the low-level southerlies/southeasterlies,
shear will support supercells. Large hail is expected with the
initial dryline storms, along with potential for locally damaging
winds. Tornado potential is forecast to increase into the evening
and overnight, as convection moves eastward across Texas and
boundary-layer moistening continues. A few strong tornadoes will be
possible through the evening and into the overnight hours
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.From HGX
SHORT TERM [Today Through Monday Night]
A very active period of weather is on its way as we close out the
weekend and begin the upcoming week, as the approach of a vigorous
upper level trough and associated surface low/cold frontal boundary
will bring both convective and hydrologic threats to SE TX. The
previously dominant surface high over the South Central CONUS will
continue to track eastward during the day today, bringing about a
return to onshore winds that will gradually strengthen as a
deepening lee cyclone tightens the synoptic pressure gradient. As
a result, moisture availability will increase rapidly as the
aforementioned surface low slowly drags a surface cold frontal
boundary towards the area. Not much change to the temperature
forecast today with most locations seeing highs in the mid/upper
70s. However, by tonight, widespread cloud cover will inhibit
diurnal cooling, resulting in lows in the 50s/near 60 as winds
increase to around 10-20 mph. Surface dew points will experience a
steady rise as well, reaching the 50s/60s by late this evening.
The expected synoptic pattern on Monday remains supportive of the
possibility of both severe storms and flash flooding for most of SE
TX, though guidance indicates most favorable conditions in areas
along and north of the I-10 corridor. By Monday morning, an
amplified mid/upper level trough will sit just west of the area and
will push slowly eastward during the day. As this occurs, a robust
low-level jet of around 60-70 kts overhead will provide both strong
moisture transport (total PW values in excess of 1.5 in) and
contribute to deep shear supportive of supercell development.
Although convective development may be hampered slightly by
increasing cloud cover overhead, parameter space remains otherwise
supportive by Monday afternoon with mid-level lapse rates exceeding
7 degC/km, effective layer shear of up to 70 knots, and 0-3km SRH
values of 400-500 m^2/s^2. As a result, all severe threats will be
possible with any strong storms that develop with strong wind gusts,
large hail, and tornadoes all possible through Monday afternoon and
into the evening. As touched upon previously, the threats are most
apparent along and north of the I-10 corridor given the expected
positioning of the trough axis and low-level jet. By late afternoon,
CAMs have started to indicate a linear/MCS convective mode, though
the exact timing and strength of this feature will become clearer in
the coming 24 hours. Regardless, all residents of SE TX should
remain aware of the forecast and have a plan in place for actions to
take in the event of a warning.
Convection will continue to organize along the frontal boundary
itself as it slowly pushes into the area during the
evening/overnight hours of Monday. As this occurs, global synoptic
models show a split jet pattern aloft, providing robust upper-level
divergence supportive of potential heavy rain. As the front slowly
advances towards the coast, there is a possibility that training
cells will develop though the exact location that this will occur
remains uncertain at this time. As a result, there remains a broad
flash threat across the area, with rainfall totals of 3-5" (and
locally higher amounts) possible. Those with travel plans on Monday
evening should pay close attention to local road conditions and
remain up to date with the forecast and any potential watches and/or
warnings that may be issued.
Cady
.LONG TERM [Tuesday through Saturday Night]...
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing by
Tuesday morning as the main upper level low slowly slides east-
northeast into the Central Plains/MS Valley. Dynamics/forcing still
look moderate to strong for portions of Southeast TX by early
Tuesday with a strong diffluence zone aloft and several shortwaves
at mid-levels. While severe weather risk should diminish early in
the morning, a flooding risk will still be possible, mainly along
and east of I-45. Hazards should gradually diminish over the morning
hours from west to east as the associated cold front moves through.
SHORT TERM [Today Through Monday Night]
A very active period of weather is on its way as we close out the
weekend and begin the upcoming week, as the approach of a vigorous
upper level trough and associated surface low/cold frontal boundary
will bring both convective and hydrologic threats to SE TX. The
previously dominant surface high over the South Central CONUS will
continue to track eastward during the day today, bringing about a
return to onshore winds that will gradually strengthen as a
deepening lee cyclone tightens the synoptic pressure gradient. As
a result, moisture availability will increase rapidly as the
aforementioned surface low slowly drags a surface cold frontal
boundary towards the area. Not much change to the temperature
forecast today with most locations seeing highs in the mid/upper
70s. However, by tonight, widespread cloud cover will inhibit
diurnal cooling, resulting in lows in the 50s/near 60 as winds
increase to around 10-20 mph. Surface dew points will experience a
steady rise as well, reaching the 50s/60s by late this evening.
The expected synoptic pattern on Monday remains supportive of the
possibility of both severe storms and flash flooding for most of SE
TX, though guidance indicates most favorable conditions in areas
along and north of the I-10 corridor. By Monday morning, an
amplified mid/upper level trough will sit just west of the area and
will push slowly eastward during the day. As this occurs, a robust
low-level jet of around 60-70 kts overhead will provide both strong
moisture transport (total PW values in excess of 1.5 in) and
contribute to deep shear supportive of supercell development.
Although convective development may be hampered slightly by
increasing cloud cover overhead, parameter space remains otherwise
supportive by Monday afternoon with mid-level lapse rates exceeding
7 degC/km, effective layer shear of up to 70 knots, and 0-3km SRH
values of 400-500 m^2/s^2. As a result, all severe threats will be
possible with any strong storms that develop with strong wind gusts,
large hail, and tornadoes all possible through Monday afternoon and
into the evening. As touched upon previously, the threats are most
apparent along and north of the I-10 corridor given the expected
positioning of the trough axis and low-level jet. By late afternoon,
CAMs have started to indicate a linear/MCS convective mode, though
the exact timing and strength of this feature will become clearer in
the coming 24 hours. Regardless, all residents of SE TX should
remain aware of the forecast and have a plan in place for actions to
take in the event of a warning.
Convection will continue to organize along the frontal boundary
itself as it slowly pushes into the area during the
evening/overnight hours of Monday. As this occurs, global synoptic
models show a split jet pattern aloft, providing robust upper-level
divergence supportive of potential heavy rain. As the front slowly
advances towards the coast, there is a possibility that training
cells will develop though the exact location that this will occur
remains uncertain at this time. As a result, there remains a broad
flash threat across the area, with rainfall totals of 3-5" (and
locally higher amounts) possible. Those with travel plans on Monday
evening should pay close attention to local road conditions and
remain up to date with the forecast and any potential watches and/or
warnings that may be issued.
Cady
.LONG TERM [Tuesday through Saturday Night]...
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing by
Tuesday morning as the main upper level low slowly slides east-
northeast into the Central Plains/MS Valley. Dynamics/forcing still
look moderate to strong for portions of Southeast TX by early
Tuesday with a strong diffluence zone aloft and several shortwaves
at mid-levels. While severe weather risk should diminish early in
the morning, a flooding risk will still be possible, mainly along
and east of I-45. Hazards should gradually diminish over the morning
hours from west to east as the associated cold front moves through.
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The 12Z HRRR is concerning ,it shows the MCS stalled over the area all night and still continuing at the end of its run Tuesday morning.Has some areas getting 7+ inches locally.HGX also posted some useful info this morning on Tornado development.
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Stratton20
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- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
I am becoming very concerned about the tornado threat, Pow ponder just showed the latest hrrr which had tornado parametervalues near 10 around austin which is the highest it goes on the scale, that is extremely worrisome to see
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Iceresistance
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9z SREF has a 75% STP in Eastern Texas, Houston is 45-60%
I can't recall the last time (if ever) Houston had a significant tornado potential that high.
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Iceresistance
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Iceresistance
- Posts: 577
- Joined: Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:48 pm
- Location: Tecumseh, OK
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A very dangerous situation is very possible for Southern Texas, Louisiana & Mississippi over the next 2 days. (Those 2 days)
The only way that this busts is if the storm mode is very messy, it's our only hope to avoid a nasty outbreak.
This is going to be an overnight event too which is gonna be worse.
The Enhanced risk has been expanded...
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Sun Mar 20 2022
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail, damaging
wind gusts, and several tornadoes are expected across portions of
central and eastern Texas, beginning Monday afternoon and lasting
through much of the night. A couple of strong tornadoes are
possible.
...Synopsis...
A deep upper trough over the West will move eastward into the
central/southern Great Plains region on Monday. As this occurs, a
surface low is forecast to move eastward from eastern NM toward
portions of the OK/TX Red River vicinity by Monday evening. A warm
front initially running from central TX into the northwest Gulf of
Mexico will move northward through the day in response to the
surface low.
...Central/eastern TX and vicinity...
An active severe thunderstorm event is possible across parts of
central and eastern TX, with a risk for all severe hazards,
including the potential for very large hail and a couple strong
tornadoes.
Initially elevated convection will likely blossom across parts of
north TX and southern OK later Monday morning into early afternoon,
within a strengthening warm-advection regime north of the warm
front. Uncertainties remain regarding the extent to which this
convection will impede the northward movement of the warm front
through the day. However, with an increasing low-level jet (50+ kt
at 850 mb), strong low-level moisture transport will continue, and
some convection may become rooted near/at the surface within a
strongly sheared environment. Any supercells or bowing structures
that can be maintained in this warm-advection regime will pose at
least an isolated threat for all severe hazards by early-mid
afternoon.
Meanwhile, further south into central TX, widely scattered
thunderstorm development is possible along the dryline by late
afternoon. Moderate instability (MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg) and ample
deep-layer shear will support supercells, with an initial threat of
potentially very large hail. As these storms mature and move into an
environment of increasing low-level shear, a few tornadoes will be
possible, with a conditional strong-tornado threat with any
supercells that are sustained into the evening.
An increasingly linear convective mode is expected to evolve with
time by Monday night across eastern TX into southern AR and western
LA. While the expected line-parallel flow is not ideal for a
widespread damaging wind threat, at least scattered damaging gusts
are possible given the strength of the low/midlevel flow. Strong
low-level shear will also support a tornado threat with any
mesovortices or embedded supercells.
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In Tomball. Well, now I am petrified! Please, when you have something happening in your area, will you PLEASE share where your area is so we know? I will only have access via my cell and your are doesn't show up.
A bazillion thanks!
A bazillion thanks!
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Iceresistance
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You can see the location below the username, I'm in Central Oklahoma. (Likely the very first Oklahoman here?)