March 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Wed Mar 23, 2022 6:00 pm Agreed, rain is fine, but hoping for no severe weather if that system comes to fruition, ofc its far out but worth watching, but man see images from the damage in eastern parts of new orleans is just absolutely heartbreaking
I’m fine with severe weather as long as there’s no fatalities or anything other than very minor damage.
Stratton20
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Cpv17 I mean its cool but i only like it if its in a non populated are, though watching the lightning display from those supercells was amazing
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Wed Mar 23, 2022 8:15 pm Cpv17 I mean its cool but i only like it if its in a non populated are, though watching the lightning display from those supercells was amazing
I like experiencing it. Gives me a big adrenaline rush.
Stratton20
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Cpv17 I definitely get that, it is pretty cool watching severe thunderstorms in action, just not when they are over populated areas
Iceresistance
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Stratton20 wrote: Wed Mar 23, 2022 8:58 pm Cpv17 I definitely get that, it is pretty cool watching severe thunderstorms in action, just not when they are over populated areas
Yes, the storms drive me crazy, especially the Lightning
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This is just wild

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tireman4
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00
FXUS64 KHGX 251652
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1152 AM CDT Fri Mar 25 2022


.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

No issues for this package even with high pressure moving out to
the east. Light W to NW winds are expected become light/variable
overnight and then shift to the S and SE tomorrow. Will maintain
VFR for almost all sites with only a brief mention of patchy fog
at LBX early tomorrow morning. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 402 AM CDT Fri Mar 25 2022/...

SHORT TERM [Today Through Saturday Night]...

Reinforcing cold air, light winds, and clear skies during the
overnight hours will cool temperatures down into the low 40s by
sunrise and mid 30s for our northernmost counties. High pressure
will remain overhead, so we can expect mostly clear skies and
daytime highs to reach the low 80s inland and upper 70s along the
coast. Dry air will still be in place as RH dips into the teens
and low 20s today, so elevated fire weather conditions still
remain, but wind and wind gusts should be substantially lower than
we saw yesterday. Tonight will be fairly similar to what we`ve
seen the past few days. Clear skies will lead to efficient cooling
as temps drop into the upper 40s north of I-10 and the Houston
Metro area and the low 50s elsewhere. Some guidance is hinting at
patchy fog for our southwestern counties as temps approach the
dewpoint, but should fog develop, it`ll dissipate after sunrise.

By tomorrow, high pressure will begin to slowly push east and
gentle to moderate onshore flow gradually resumes by mid
afternoon. Daytime high creeps up a few degrees and into the low
to mid 80s while overnight lows reach the mid 50s. Confidence is
higher for fog development tomorrow night as dewpoints climb due
to the return of onshore flow.

LONG TERM [Sunday Through Friday]...

Sunday opens with a surface high continuing to take shape over the
Gulf of Mexico, which means the onshore winds that started to emerge
earlier in the weekend should become better established.
Ridging will be in place in the lower atmosphere, while the mid-
level pattern is still in a transition as the slow-moving upper
trough finally moves east and gives way to a ridge.

As stacked ridging becomes more the dominant feature over the
Northwest Gulf, high temperatures in the 80s should become more
widespread, with the warm spots reaching into the middle 80s each
day in the first half of next week. The NBM distribution suggests
even a 1-in-5 to 1-in-4 chance of seeing some 90 degree highs well
inland. I`m not ready to go that far with a deterministic forecast
yet - much of the guidance suggests some very subtle shortwave
troughs rippling through this mid-level ridge. And while it`s not
going to bring rain chances, it could increase cloudiness just
enough to keep temps from really cranking up. Buuuutttt...if that
doesn`t materialize and the ridge is more dominant than
modeled...yeah, we could definitely push 90 in the hot spots.

Meanwhile, for overnight lows, as the pressure gradient tightens
between the Gulf high and a developing surface low Monday night when
the next upper trough begins to drop off the Rockies, we`ll see
onshore winds strengthen through the early week. This will boost
humidity, raising the temperature floor and eventually we`ll likely
see nocturnal stratus develop as the humid, less dense Gulf air
rides up over the sable nocturnal boundary layer. Lows Sunday
morning will already show this upward trend with most of the area in
the 50s (perhaps a few 40s in Houston County, and around 60 degrees
right on the Gulf). But we`ll see that upward trend continue, with
widespread lows higher than 60 in place by Monday night/Tuesday
morning.

Finally, as we head into the midweek, we`ll see the impact of the
aforementioned upper trough and its accompanying surface low. Very
strong consensus in the guidance that we`ll see a midweek cold
front, and another shot at showers and storms ahead of and along the
boundary. Will we see another round of severe weather? Well, it`s
certainly on the table, but right now signs are mixed on the level
of the threat. We`ll have a strong wind profile both at low levels
(60 knot winds at 850 mb!) and aloft, along with ample boundary
layer moisture from the stout onshore low level flow.

Once question will be timing - some guidance brings a pre-frontal
trough through early on Wednesday morning, giving us our best
surface convergence before instability has a chance to build, and
spoiling potential when the front itself rolls through. In fact, our
peak SBCAPE values in the NBM right now don`t even really exceed 500
J/Kg. But if this happens several hours later - not an unreasonable
timing slip by any means at this range - and suddenly we`re looking
at storms popping off at the diurnal peak. There may be some hint of
this in the Euro ensembles, as the EFI for the CAPE-Shear parameter
space exceeds 0.5 from Galveston Bay northeast into northwest
Louisiana. That`s not necessarily a ringing endorsement of severe
weather potential, but I`ve got to conclude that it`s at least still
on the table.

Additionally, we`ll want to keep an eye on the orientation of the
upper trough. Last night, there was a strong split between a neutral
(or even slightly negatively-tilted) trough which could be more
supportive of stronger storms, and a positively-tilted trough, which
would likely build a strong cap over all but the northeasternmost
portion of the forecast area. Tonight, it seems like things have
trended a little more towards a more cappy environment, but again,
it`s no slam dunk. This is less an evolution towards shutting the
door, and more that the guidance is in better agreement in giving
the trough more of a neutral tilt just to our east, a little too
late for severe storms here. But, just like the timing in the
surface features mentioned above, it would take very little change
in this timing to thrust us into a much more supportive environment
for stronger storms.

Given all this, it`s probably no surprise that the new SPC Day 4-8
outlook puts the main threat area well north/northwest of us on
Tuesday, scraping just northeast of us and onto the east on
Wednesday, leaving us just barely out of their 15 percent contour.
This is pretty reasonable, and also a little close for my tastes.
If the forecast is perfect, we should largely watch the strongest
storms from a distance as that outlook plays out. If the swiss
cheese lines up a little differently...anyway, no need to kick into
high gear over the severe threat at this point, but make sure to
check in with us for the latest every so often, just to see if
anything has changed.

MARINE...

Winds have become light across the waters tonight, accompanied by
falling seas as the pressure gradient across the area becomes loose.
Expect winds to be light and variable for much of the day, generally
becoming more onshore overnight into the weekend thanks to
strengthening high pressure to the east. Though light, and fairly
variable at first, the onshore flow will strengthen into early next
week. As the winds increase, seas will also build.

The pressure gradient looks to get quite tight early next week while
the surface high to the east attempts to hold tight and a new
surface low spins up in the lee of the Rockies. By Tuesday, winds
are likely to rise into SCEC territory, and perhaps above the
advisory threshold as a cold front approaches the region

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 82 48 83 54 84 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 82 49 83 55 82 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 75 61 74 63 75 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...99
Aviation/Marine...99
Stratton20
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Hope the next storm system stays well to the north of us, this beautiful stretch of nice weather can continue!😄
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DoctorMu
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Yesterday was perfect. Today is a little too warm for my taste. But at least it's dry and not humid.

Because it won't be soon enough...
Cpv17
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DoctorMu wrote: Fri Mar 25, 2022 1:47 pm Yesterday was perfect. Today is a little too warm for my taste. But at least it's dry and not humid.

Because it won't be soon enough...
I agree, although yesterday was slightly too windy for my taste but temp wise yesterday was perfect. Now today it’s the opposite lol the winds are good for me now but the temps a bit too warm. Not going to complain though!
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jasons2k
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I’ve gotten up to 86 today. Getting up there.
Cpv17
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jasons2k wrote: Fri Mar 25, 2022 3:38 pm I’ve gotten up to 86 today. Getting up there.
Don’t you live in The Woodlands? Or is that a Conroe address where you are?
Cpv17
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I see channel 13 has a 60% chance of rain for Wednesday. Not sure what model they’re looking at cuz I don’t really see anything around southeast TX next week.
Stratton20
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Good lets keep it that way!
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Fri Mar 25, 2022 7:14 pm Good lets keep it that way!
I think up there where you are there’s a much better chance for some rain and storms on Wednesday compared to the rest of us.
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jasons2k
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Cpv17 wrote: Fri Mar 25, 2022 4:40 pm
jasons2k wrote: Fri Mar 25, 2022 3:38 pm I’ve gotten up to 86 today. Getting up there.
Don’t you live in The Woodlands? Or is that a Conroe address where you are?
It's a Spring address, very close to The Woodlands. A lot of The Woodlands has a Spring address according to the post office. My office is in The Woodlands just a couple of miles away, and it has a Spring or Woodlands address (they seem to be interchangeable at that location).

I actually got up to 87 after my post. I saw some other nearby stations in the same range. Gonna be a nice weekend for baseball and yard work!
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jasons2k
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Cpv17 wrote: Fri Mar 25, 2022 6:42 pm I see channel 13 has a 60% chance of rain for Wednesday. Not sure what model they’re looking at cuz I don’t really see anything around southeast TX next week.
NWS has 80% here on Wednesday with the front.

It got to 88.5°F here today. The warmth cometh.
Stratton20
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Not looking forward to the blast furnace in summer! Man next winter cant get here soon enough!🤣🤣
Iceresistance
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Very Broad Slight Risk to end March

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Stratton20
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Eh im not concerned with this really, maybe up towards the dallas area, but. im expecting just some general storms in our area and SE Texas, this will not be an outbreak ( hopefully) like last time, the less severe weather the better!
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