April 2022
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4248
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
NWS has a 90% chance of heavy rain for me in CS, Monday-warly Tuesday morning
I really don’t see any model that supports much rain south of I-10. Maybe the WRF model but that’s it.cperk wrote: ↑Sun Apr 24, 2022 1:09 pmCp17 Wharton is at 90% Monday night.Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sun Apr 24, 2022 12:59 pmYeah that would be good for y’all north of 10. Looks like I’ll have to wait till May 2nd/3rd for some action. But I don’t have much faith In that happening since it’s 8 or so days out.captainbarbossa19 wrote: ↑Sun Apr 24, 2022 12:45 pm
Dang! I hope this verifies. For me, this would probably be the biggest rain event of the year so far.
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captainbarbossa19
- Posts: 401
- Joined: Mon Jun 28, 2021 2:50 pm
- Location: Starkville, MS
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Still a little early to know yet, but the Euro is showing another decent chance of storms for us on this upcoming Saturday. If we get storms tomorrow, this could be the start of a much more active pattern. We need to get rain to fall first though.
Euro doubled down this afternoon on their QPF amounts. 
Locally, that is. South of I-10 still looks sparser for rainfall, but maybe still an inch or so..
Locally, that is. South of I-10 still looks sparser for rainfall, but maybe still an inch or so..
I watered today. That should clinch it. 
Fingers crossed. There's still a lot of mid-level dry air on GOES. Moisture is starting to explode near Del Rio and San Angelo.
Fingers crossed. There's still a lot of mid-level dry air on GOES. Moisture is starting to explode near Del Rio and San Angelo.
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4248
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
DoctorMu Euro has a bullseye of near 5 inches over CS, fingers crossed!
0z HRRR looks much better for widespread rain tomorrow. Very nice to see!
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captainbarbossa19
- Posts: 401
- Joined: Mon Jun 28, 2021 2:50 pm
- Location: Starkville, MS
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I just hope it's wrong about the rain dying east of Houston. It shows my area getting 0.25 or less, but has not been doing great with the storms out west today, so I am hoping it will be wrong!
From HGX
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^I hope that's right. The air looks pretty stable this am and that's a pretty broken line of showers to our NW.
12Z HRRR,Storms are not suppose to really get going until this afternoon with the heating of the day, and a disturbance moving into SE Texas from our west.The disturbance is currently in the hill country at the moment.New cells are already starting develop to our west.
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4248
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
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Thus Line of storms spells huge bust potential
Looks good to me. A nice soaking coming.
We're seeing that daytime heating backfill now. Not robust yet, but hey it's wet!
I think we're seeing some jet stream divergence now. Welcome back from La Nina.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
703 AM CDT Mon Apr 25 2022
.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
Mainly MVFR conditions remain in place across the area ahead of
the approach of a surface cold front during the day today. The
boundary, along with widespread showers and storms that develop
along it, will progress slowly to the south-southeast towards the
coast from mid-morning through the evening. Have opted to main
trend of initial VCSH/VCTS wording with TEMPO groups highlighting
the best time for more widespread/stronger storms. This should be
around 16-21Z at CLL/UTS, 18-01Z at IAH/CXO/SGR/HOU, and around
00-03Z at LBX/GLS. Some strong wind gusts may accompany any
stronger storms that impact terminals. Coverage should generally
decrease as the line advances towards the coast where the
environment will be less supportive of development. Maintained
VCSH wording into the evening with lingering showers possible
behind the departing boundary. MVFR to IFR cigs prevail in the
wake of the front.
Cady
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 421 AM CDT Mon Apr 25 2022/...
.SHORT TERM [Today Through Tuesday Night]...
A pattern shift arrives today as a surface cold front slowly moves
through the area, bringing with it widespread showers and storms
that at times could produce locally heavy downpours. As of 0330 CDT,
the frontal boundary sits south of the DFW Metroplex along a line
roughly extending from Temple northeastward to Corsicana. Meanwhile,
a few isolated streamer showers have continued to develop along the
coast, and as a result have maintained slight chance PoPs in the
morning package given hires model depictions of this trend
persisting. The surface boundary will continue to slowly advance
southward over the next several hours, reaching the College Station
area by mid-morning.
Environmental conditions ahead of the front`s arrival will support
the possibility of some locally heavy rainfall as it slowly advances
through the Houston metro area by late afternoon. Onshore winds
continue to supply the area with relatively abundant low-level
moisture, with latest global model runs showing total PW values
reaching as high as 1.75 in to the north of the I-10 corridor by
early afternoon. In addition, SBCAPE values are expected to reach
around 2000 J/kg ahead of the advancing boundary, while forecast
soundings indicate a fairly well-saturated column. Aloft, we remain
within the right rear quadrant of a 300mb jet streak, which should
provide sufficient upper-level divergence. Given the favorable
conditions in place, widespread showers and storms should develop
along/ahead of the advancing front, generally moving through the
Brazos Valley during the late morning to early afternoon, the
Houston metro area during the afternoon hours, and the coastal zones
during the late afternoon/evening. CAM solutions remain in
relatively good agreement with fropa/precipitation timing, with all
HREF members indicating the potential for some storms within the
developing line to produce periods of heavy rain. Areal QPF forecast
remains generally unchanged with the highest totals focused along
and north of the I-10 corridor, where 1-2 inches of rain should
fall. However, 00Z HREF LPMM QPF continues to show pockets of
locally higher totals in this area, where some locations could
receive 3-4 inches of rain. This could result in some street
flooding, so those with travel plans today should pay close
attention to local road conditions and the latest forecast.
Should see a fairly tight gradient of high temps today as most
locations across the Houston metro and southward should still have
the chance to experience significant diurnal heating prior to the
fropa, resulting in highs in the mid 80s. Across the northern zones,
where the front will move through earlier, highs may only top out in
the mid to upper 70s. Overnight, as northeast winds develop behind
the departing front, lows will drop into the 60s/upper 50s.
Tomorrow, some shower/storm activity may still linger near the coast
through the morning as the front continues to depart offshore.
Otherwise, we should see a brief return to more pleasant conditions
as offshore winds allow for cooler and drier air to filter into the
area. Daytime highs will drop into the low/mid 70s, while most
locations will see lows in the 50s/lower 60s. By the evening,
surface dew points should also experience a considerable drop into
the 50s at most locations.
Cady
.LONG TERM [through Sunday Night]...
Sfc high pressure over the Central Plains/MS Valley will slide
eastward by mid-week, resulting in onshore winds over Southeast TX.
This pattern will gradually increase low-level moisture and
temperatures. Sfc dewpoint values will range from the 50s (far
northern Counties) to the 60s (southern/coastal Counties). Highs
will generally be in the from the upper 70s and 80s.
As mid-level ridging shifts eastward, an influx of WAA will begin to
surge north from South TX on Thursday. PWs increase around 1.1-1.5"
during this time-frame; thus, spotty showers will be possible.
Thursday is also shaping up to be warm as 850mb temperatures rise
into the 15 to 18 degrees C. This gradual warm up will continue into
the weekend with above normal temperatures.
A strong upper-level trough develops over the Pacific Northwest and
strengthens over the High/Central Plains by Saturday. The associated
sfc cold front will possibly move near the region next weekend.
Model solutions are in better agreement in the evolution and
strength of this closed low and bring the associated sfc cold
front north of TX. The region will remain in the developing warm
sector with increasing WAA and Gulf moisture. In terms of
accumulations, confidence remains low given wide differences
between models. With that being said, have kept PoPs up to 20
percent until higher confidence arrives later this week. For now,
look for warm temperatures and chances of precipitation heading
into the weekend.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
703 AM CDT Mon Apr 25 2022
.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
Mainly MVFR conditions remain in place across the area ahead of
the approach of a surface cold front during the day today. The
boundary, along with widespread showers and storms that develop
along it, will progress slowly to the south-southeast towards the
coast from mid-morning through the evening. Have opted to main
trend of initial VCSH/VCTS wording with TEMPO groups highlighting
the best time for more widespread/stronger storms. This should be
around 16-21Z at CLL/UTS, 18-01Z at IAH/CXO/SGR/HOU, and around
00-03Z at LBX/GLS. Some strong wind gusts may accompany any
stronger storms that impact terminals. Coverage should generally
decrease as the line advances towards the coast where the
environment will be less supportive of development. Maintained
VCSH wording into the evening with lingering showers possible
behind the departing boundary. MVFR to IFR cigs prevail in the
wake of the front.
Cady
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 421 AM CDT Mon Apr 25 2022/...
.SHORT TERM [Today Through Tuesday Night]...
A pattern shift arrives today as a surface cold front slowly moves
through the area, bringing with it widespread showers and storms
that at times could produce locally heavy downpours. As of 0330 CDT,
the frontal boundary sits south of the DFW Metroplex along a line
roughly extending from Temple northeastward to Corsicana. Meanwhile,
a few isolated streamer showers have continued to develop along the
coast, and as a result have maintained slight chance PoPs in the
morning package given hires model depictions of this trend
persisting. The surface boundary will continue to slowly advance
southward over the next several hours, reaching the College Station
area by mid-morning.
Environmental conditions ahead of the front`s arrival will support
the possibility of some locally heavy rainfall as it slowly advances
through the Houston metro area by late afternoon. Onshore winds
continue to supply the area with relatively abundant low-level
moisture, with latest global model runs showing total PW values
reaching as high as 1.75 in to the north of the I-10 corridor by
early afternoon. In addition, SBCAPE values are expected to reach
around 2000 J/kg ahead of the advancing boundary, while forecast
soundings indicate a fairly well-saturated column. Aloft, we remain
within the right rear quadrant of a 300mb jet streak, which should
provide sufficient upper-level divergence. Given the favorable
conditions in place, widespread showers and storms should develop
along/ahead of the advancing front, generally moving through the
Brazos Valley during the late morning to early afternoon, the
Houston metro area during the afternoon hours, and the coastal zones
during the late afternoon/evening. CAM solutions remain in
relatively good agreement with fropa/precipitation timing, with all
HREF members indicating the potential for some storms within the
developing line to produce periods of heavy rain. Areal QPF forecast
remains generally unchanged with the highest totals focused along
and north of the I-10 corridor, where 1-2 inches of rain should
fall. However, 00Z HREF LPMM QPF continues to show pockets of
locally higher totals in this area, where some locations could
receive 3-4 inches of rain. This could result in some street
flooding, so those with travel plans today should pay close
attention to local road conditions and the latest forecast.
Should see a fairly tight gradient of high temps today as most
locations across the Houston metro and southward should still have
the chance to experience significant diurnal heating prior to the
fropa, resulting in highs in the mid 80s. Across the northern zones,
where the front will move through earlier, highs may only top out in
the mid to upper 70s. Overnight, as northeast winds develop behind
the departing front, lows will drop into the 60s/upper 50s.
Tomorrow, some shower/storm activity may still linger near the coast
through the morning as the front continues to depart offshore.
Otherwise, we should see a brief return to more pleasant conditions
as offshore winds allow for cooler and drier air to filter into the
area. Daytime highs will drop into the low/mid 70s, while most
locations will see lows in the 50s/lower 60s. By the evening,
surface dew points should also experience a considerable drop into
the 50s at most locations.
Cady
.LONG TERM [through Sunday Night]...
Sfc high pressure over the Central Plains/MS Valley will slide
eastward by mid-week, resulting in onshore winds over Southeast TX.
This pattern will gradually increase low-level moisture and
temperatures. Sfc dewpoint values will range from the 50s (far
northern Counties) to the 60s (southern/coastal Counties). Highs
will generally be in the from the upper 70s and 80s.
As mid-level ridging shifts eastward, an influx of WAA will begin to
surge north from South TX on Thursday. PWs increase around 1.1-1.5"
during this time-frame; thus, spotty showers will be possible.
Thursday is also shaping up to be warm as 850mb temperatures rise
into the 15 to 18 degrees C. This gradual warm up will continue into
the weekend with above normal temperatures.
A strong upper-level trough develops over the Pacific Northwest and
strengthens over the High/Central Plains by Saturday. The associated
sfc cold front will possibly move near the region next weekend.
Model solutions are in better agreement in the evolution and
strength of this closed low and bring the associated sfc cold
front north of TX. The region will remain in the developing warm
sector with increasing WAA and Gulf moisture. In terms of
accumulations, confidence remains low given wide differences
between models. With that being said, have kept PoPs up to 20
percent until higher confidence arrives later this week. For now,
look for warm temperatures and chances of precipitation heading
into the weekend.
Not holding my breath for anything later. That line is far to the north like usual.
Feasting is better than famine.
Props to the models for prog-ing the SJT divergence ripping through the cap.
Hoping as the line moves south your lawns in the HOU area get a soaking.
Props to the models for prog-ing the SJT divergence ripping through the cap.
Hoping as the line moves south your lawns in the HOU area get a soaking.
Looks like a good soaking creeping my way from the north into Beaumont shortly. I wasnt holding my breath but we may actually get more than 3 drops today. Woohoo! Ill try to send it your way houston. Lol
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Not sure why some are saying "bust" forecast looks on track to me.
Last edited by don on Mon Apr 25, 2022 12:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.