May 2022

[captainbarbossa19]

...and the heat goes on...

https://youtu.be/bS3O5zg290k


Some good news. It appears after today (heat index of 106°F+) that the dewpoint will moderate and we will stay in the mid 90s instead of upper 90s. Unfortunately, less of a breeze. Also, there is potential for the ridge to break down this weekend and a SW may pay us a visit. GFS is picking this up...and the Canadian, sees it as a front dragging behind a Midwest low. Then, next week, as predicted, the ridge rebuilds.

I think 20% is being a bit conservative for Saturday, but they are probably waiting for the Euro to come on board at this point. There will be some ridging next week but it is not nearly as strong compared to the ridging between Wednesday and Friday. One thing I am noticing is that we are starting to have more frequent rain events compared to a month ago. Rain events are now occurring every 7-10 days for most of the area compared to 14+. I read from a pro met that they believe ridging this summer will be most dominant over the western US this summer. In 2011, drought was centered over the Southern Plains and the Gulf Coast. This year, drought conditions are most dominant over the western US. The pro met said that there will be ridging at times over the central US, but the semi-permanent location will be over the western US.

[Stratton20]

Let the tropical system fantasy runs of the GFS begin 18z GFS with a weak depression off the florida coast around hour 336, gotta love the GFS with its phantom runs, though they are quite entertaining to look at

[Cpv17]

I wouldn’t count on any rain happening anytime soon for most of us. Any rain the models are showing that’s more than 3 days out will just fade away as it gets closer. We’re stuck in a very unfavorable feedback pattern and the sky high SOI doesn’t bode well for rain at all.

[DoctorMu]

...and the heat goes on...

https://youtu.be/bS3O5zg290k


Some good news. It appears after today (heat index of 106°F+) that the dewpoint will moderate and we will stay in the mid 90s instead of upper 90s. Unfortunately, less of a breeze. Also, there is potential for the ridge to break down this weekend and a SW may pay us a visit. GFS is picking this up...and the Canadian, sees it as a front dragging behind a Midwest low. Then, next week, as predicted, the ridge rebuilds.

I think 20% is being a bit conservative for Saturday, but they are probably waiting for the Euro to come on board at this point. There will be some ridging next week but it is not nearly as strong compared to the ridging between Wednesday and Friday. One thing I am noticing is that we are starting to have more frequent rain events compared to a month ago. Rain events are now occurring every 7-10 days for most of the area compared to 14+. I read from a pro met that they believe ridging this summer will be most dominant over the western US this summer. In 2011, drought was centered over the Southern Plains and the Gulf Coast. This year, drought conditions are most dominant over the western US. The pro met said that there will be ridging at times over the central US, but the semi-permanent location will be over the western US.

I agree. It's early. The HOU office tends to be very conservative with their prediction. Too much so in the winter, which limits prep time...and they don't focus during severe season like DFW does. We got pretty lucky with the CLL - Madisonville - Crocket tornado.


The good news here is it only made it to 94°F today. The DP is still about 73°, but there is a brisk SE breeze 17 G25

The lows Wed and Thurs night are 67°F, so some drier air is poised to mix in at the surface.

There's some action near De Rio, but any precip must be verga in Texas, although there are showers on the Mexican side.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... &length=24


Current NWS prog features some isolated seabreeze shower this weekend. We'll see.

[DoctorMu]

QPF forecasts look pretty brutal except GFS for the next 10-14 days.

NWS Climate Prediction Center forecasts for 8-14 days out look grim.

[captainbarbossa19]

Waiting for the 12z Euro, but Saturday looks rather encouraging right now for rain, especially for areas just east of Houston. I would say coverage for the Houston area total is about 30% now, but areas east are probably about 50-60%.

[Stratton20]

12z GEFS 10 days out but is starting to sniff out some tropical mischief in the southern caribbean, if anything does form it will be weak and likely get pulled to the NE out to sea or florida , would be interesting though to see if we can get another May system to form

[DoctorMu]

Waiting for the 12z Euro, but Saturday looks rather encouraging right now for rain, especially for areas just east of Houston. I would say coverage for the Houston area total is about 30% now, but areas east are probably about 50-60%.

The trend is your friend on the GFS and Ensemble models for 10 days out. Not sure about this weekend. Maybe in HOU and E just N of I-10

[don]

"Crossing Fingers" LOL.

[Iceresistance]

"Crossing Fingers" LOL.
gfs_z500a_us_40.pngecmwf_z500a_us_65.png

Anything from the Ensembles? The GEFS is hinting supercellular activity (Chances of it for now)

CAPE right now is ridiculous, Mesoanalysis had CAPE levels over 6000 in Oklahoma, but there's nothing that could tap into the extremely unstable atmosphere.

[DoctorMu]

GFS sniffing out its first fantasy tropical system in the eastern Gulf around May 24-25.

[Stratton20]

DoctorMu Cat 1 hurricane into the florida. panhandle on that run, gotta love the GFS long range

[Iceresistance]

Daily SOI is at 40 again.

[Iceresistance]

GFS sniffing out its first fantasy tropical system in the eastern Gulf around May 24-25.

There's an extremely powerful CCKW that is coming this way, Doc V has some good tweets on the CCKW.

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1 ... 1548620800

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1 ... 6847651840

[tireman4]

XUS64 KHGX 110847
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
347 AM CDT Wed May 11 2022

.SHORT TERM [Through Thursday Night]...

Have some cloud debris passing overhead from earlier storms in west
Tx. These, and some sct/bkn stratus underneath, should scatter out
this morning. Otherwise...same old story. Mid level ridging keeps
dry conditions and above normal temps in place. 47

.LONG TERM [Friday Through Wednesday]...

"Rinse and repeat" continues to be the story as little change to
the synoptic pattern is anticipated surging the extended period.
Unseasonably warm and humid conditions with little to no
precipitation remain in the forecast through at least the early
part of next week as mid/upper ridging continues to remain solidly
in place over the Central CONUS. Surface high pressure will drift
back into the Central Gulf by Friday, allowing for a more
persistent onshore wind to redevelop. This will aid in moisture
transport, as total PWs surge back to around 1.5 in by the
overnight hours. That being said, global models indicate the best
moisture availability to our east as a series of midlevel
shortwaves move through the area on Saturday and Sunday. As a
result, PoP values remain fairly marginal across the area with
20-30% values still in the forecast to the east of the I-45
corridor. A few isolated showers and storms will be possible, but
a (likely much welcomed) widespread precipitation event is not
expected.

The main headline otherwise continues to be persistent
unseasonable heat with highs reaching around 7-10 degrees above
normal values for mid-May each day. In general, highs near the
coast will reach the upper 80s to near 90 while inland regions
reach the mid/upper 90s. Enhanced upper ridging heading into next
week will push temperatures to near 100 across the Brazos Valley
while values remain in the upper 90s across the Greater Houston
area. As we`ve been messaging lately, heat safety actions continue
to remain vital. Continue to remain hydrated, avoid strenuous
outdoor activity during the hottest parts of the day, and wear
always look before you lock! Early season heat events such as this
one pose the additional risk of impacting us before we`ve become
more acclimated to the summer heat, so taking proper precautions
remains very important.

Cady

&&

.AVIATION [06Z TAF Update]...

Intermittent bkn MVFR cigs should scatter/lift into VFR territory by
mid morning. S/SE winds will increase in the mid morning hours as
well, but speeds should be a touch lower than yesterday. Rinse &
repeat tonight. With lighter winds in place, SREF is hinting at the
possibility of some patchy fog north of the I-10 corridor in the 9-
13z timeframe. 47

&&

.MARINE...

Winds have weakened below caution thresholds this evening, and
will continue to diminish during the day today as a surface high
approaches from the east. By Friday, winds and seas begin to
increase once again as the surface high drifts back towards the
Central Gulf. Winds may approach caution thresholds during the
weekend, but should remain below caution levels through the end of
the weekend. Some isolated showers and storms may be possible on
Saturday as a disturbance approaches the area.

Cady

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 93 70 94 68 95 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 91 70 93 70 95 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 87 78 86 78 88 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...47
LONG TERM...Cady
AVIATION...47
MARINE...Cady

[Stratton20]

The GEFS is continuing to hint at some early season development around the 20th-22nd timeframe, far out but their is a signal, looks like the western caribbean could be a place to watch, likely will be weak and most likely wont pose a threat to the GOM. That is “IF” something even develops at all

[DoctorMu]

GFS sniffing out its first fantasy tropical system in the eastern Gulf around May 24-25.

There's an extremely powerful CCKW that is coming this way, Doc V has some good tweets on the CCKW.

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1 ... 1548620800

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1 ... 6847651840

Ruh roh. Open season for TCs?

[DoctorMu]

It *May* be time for that trip to Minnesota.

"unseasonable heat with highs reaching around 7-10 degrees above
normal values for mid-May each day. In general, highs near the
coast will reach the upper 80s to near 90 while inland regions
reach the mid/upper 90s. Enhanced upper ridging heading into next
week will push temperatures to near 100 across the Brazos Valley"

Also, cranking up the fire on the GoM 'cane incubator.

[Cpv17]

The latest CPC forecast is offering some hope for rain around the 20th through 24th.

[Stratton20]

Thankfully we are still in early may, other wise this would spell trouble if it was august or september thats a lot of upward rising motion on the GFS