Long range model discussion
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The GFS has a strong Hurricane in May in the GoM, the SSTs are fit for something like this!
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The 12z GFS has a 969mb hurricane sitting south of the Texas/Louisiana coastline 5/28.
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cperk thats borderline cat 3 ,it is so far pit but it has been showing up quite a bit on the GFS runs, their is some ensemble support for development around the 20th timeframe, though if we get something to develop, i highly doupt it would be as strong as what the GFS shows, though a favorable phase of the MJO and a CCKW will be passing through around the 20-24th time frame, definitely could kick start something
Yeah May hurricanes are rare only 4 have been recorded with hurricane Able in 1951 being the strongest at a category3.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu May 12, 2022 1:18 pm cperk thats borderline cat 3 ,it is so far pit but it has been showing up quite a bit on the GFS runs, their is some ensemble support for development around the 20th timeframe, though if we get something to develop, i highly doupt it would be as strong as what the GFS shows, though a favorable phase of the MJO and a CCKW will be passing through around the 20-24th time frame, definitely could kick start something
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- captainbarbossa19
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The 12z Euro has a ridge develop over the Great Lakes and east coast in about a week. If something tries to develop to our south, we would likely be in a favorable position for impact.
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Don’t be too surprised if we see something form over in the EPAC and cross over into the SW Caribbean or BOC. Whatever forms would most likely remain very weak.
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Cpv17 I think what the GFS and ensembles are picking up on is that tropical wave that came off from africa, thats what i think is what they are suggesting could develop as it gets into the southern caribbean
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