Long range model discussion

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Cpv17
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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Cpv17 » Fri May 13, 2022 11:41 pm

Stratton20 wrote:
Fri May 13, 2022 11:38 pm
Cpv17 Lets hope not! Its already bad enough in west texas
Where I live we’re right on the border between severe and extreme drought. Luckily you guys up there have had some decent rains lately but it won’t take long before my area spreads north.

Stratton20
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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Stratton20 » Fri May 13, 2022 11:55 pm

Cpv17 I hate to say it but it might take a weak tropical system (or at least the remnant moisture from one) to put a good dent in drought conditions out their

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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Stratton20 » Sat May 14, 2022 11:26 am

Whatever forms in the caribbean (if anything at all) will not be a threat to us at all, this is likely an eastern gulf threat if anything does form

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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Stratton20 » Sat May 14, 2022 2:17 pm

12z EPS, a few more members are showing something now, some take whatever forms north into the eastern gulf while some take it into the BOC, definitely will be an interesting week ahead
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Stratton20
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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Stratton20 » Mon May 16, 2022 1:22 pm

12z Euro, tries to develope a weak system in the BOC, on this run ridging pretty much keeps it confined to the BOC, but something to watch, EPS ensembles come out in an hour, will be interesting to see what those show
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Stormlover2020
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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Stormlover2020 » Mon May 16, 2022 2:29 pm

Stratton20 wrote:
Sat May 14, 2022 11:26 am
Whatever forms in the caribbean (if anything at all) will not be a threat to us at all, this is likely an eastern gulf threat if anything does form

Never say it will never be a threat to us, we don’t even know where it would form if something did form.

Stratton20
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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Stratton20 » Mon May 16, 2022 2:36 pm

Stormlocer2020 I should say * likely wont be a threat * lots can change, but even if something forms and thats even if it survices land interaction and shear, the steering pattern doesnt look favorable for a Texas landfall

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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Stormlover2020 » Mon May 16, 2022 3:06 pm

Nobody knows 10 days away, all depends where ridge is at, doesn’t matter would just be rain

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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Stratton20 » Mon May 16, 2022 3:10 pm

StormLover2020 you are right, I do expect changes in the forecast, even a weak sloppy system can cause problems

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Re: Long range model discussion

Post by Stormlover2020 » Tue May 17, 2022 5:00 pm

Gfs is caving

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