Long range model discussion

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Cpv17
Posts: 5234
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

Stratton20 wrote: Sat May 14, 2022 12:38 am Cpv17 Lets hope not! Its already bad enough in west texas
Where I live we’re right on the border between severe and extreme drought. Luckily you guys up there have had some decent rains lately but it won’t take long before my area spreads north.
Stratton20
Posts: 4226
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

Cpv17 I hate to say it but it might take a weak tropical system (or at least the remnant moisture from one) to put a good dent in drought conditions out their
Stratton20
Posts: 4226
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

Whatever forms in the caribbean (if anything at all) will not be a threat to us at all, this is likely an eastern gulf threat if anything does form
Stratton20
Posts: 4226
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

12z EPS, a few more members are showing something now, some take whatever forms north into the eastern gulf while some take it into the BOC, definitely will be an interesting week ahead
Attachments
D4C10C01-A342-4723-913F-861FC480ECFA.png
Stratton20
Posts: 4226
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

12z Euro, tries to develope a weak system in the BOC, on this run ridging pretty much keeps it confined to the BOC, but something to watch, EPS ensembles come out in an hour, will be interesting to see what those show
Attachments
69F27CCE-823F-49E2-862B-26A130DE3D8C.png
Stormlover2020
Posts: 457
Joined: Mon Jun 01, 2020 6:04 pm
Contact:

Stratton20 wrote: Sat May 14, 2022 12:26 pm Whatever forms in the caribbean (if anything at all) will not be a threat to us at all, this is likely an eastern gulf threat if anything does form

Never say it will never be a threat to us, we don’t even know where it would form if something did form.
Stratton20
Posts: 4226
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

Stormlocer2020 I should say * likely wont be a threat * lots can change, but even if something forms and thats even if it survices land interaction and shear, the steering pattern doesnt look favorable for a Texas landfall
Stormlover2020
Posts: 457
Joined: Mon Jun 01, 2020 6:04 pm
Contact:

Nobody knows 10 days away, all depends where ridge is at, doesn’t matter would just be rain
Stratton20
Posts: 4226
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

StormLover2020 you are right, I do expect changes in the forecast, even a weak sloppy system can cause problems
Cpv17
Posts: 5234
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

I think eventually we’ll get something to form in the western Caribbean but I don’t think it’s going to be from this. Look for something maybe in the second week of June.
TexasBreeze
Posts: 942
Joined: Sun Sep 26, 2010 4:46 pm
Location: NW Houston, TX
Contact:

Looks like the gfs is going to produce a tropical system every run and the tracks everywhere in the Gulf. Phantom systems since the time is always very late in the model.
Stratton20
Posts: 4226
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

I wouldnt worry about the GFS, most model guidance buries whatever tries to form into central america, though you can never say 100% that it cant get into the gulf so ill just keep a weary eye just in case something changes , the background environment is not very favorable yet, but even a weak sloppy system can be a prolific rain maker
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5648
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

I haven't been over to S2K yet, but there's a lot of gyre conversation around, focusing on the Bay of Campeche and western Caribbean.
Stratton20
Posts: 4226
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

DoctorMU based on what im seeing, their are a few EPS and GEFS members that do try to get something going in the BOC, but most keep whatever tries to form near central america
Cpv17
Posts: 5234
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

If anything comes of this, it’ll probably be in the EPAC.
Cpv17
Posts: 5234
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

Interesting read for anyone that wants to read it.

https://currently.att.yahoo.com/news/ba ... 53675.html
Stratton20
Posts: 4226
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

Cpv17 I saw that, definitely could be scary
Stratton20
Posts: 4226
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

12z CMC sniffing out a weak area of low pressure next weekend? Could be from the tropical wave in the S.Caribbean, created a GIF to show this
Attachments
gem_z500_mslp_watl_fh24-240.gif
Cpv17
Posts: 5234
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

Long range EPS and GEFS are in agreement that we might need to watch the western Caribbean in the first week of June.
Post Reply
  • Information
  • Who is online

    Users browsing this forum: Ahrefs [Bot] and 68 guests