May 2022

[don]

Yep Euro looks very good.With some areas getting 8+ inches of rain. The GFS is also just as wet if not more, it just has the placement of heaviest qpf further northwest of us.Even with dry grounds though flash flooding could be a problem next week for some, if the trends continue.These kinds of rains could be a drought buster.Remember qpf amounts and locations will change, so its important not to focus on the exact amounts and locations this far out.Just note the overall pattern the models are showing next week is a classic setup for heavy rain and severe weather in the state during Spring.

[Stratton20]

Definitely will be interesting to watch the trends in terms of rainfall amounts, definitely cant wait! My backyard is parched

[jasons2k]

Me likey Euro.

[Cpv17]

The WPC is really cutting back on rain totals south of I-10. They have the highest rain totals in far northeastern Texas.

[captainbarbossa19]

The WPC is really cutting back on rain totals south of I-10. They have the highest rain totals in far northeastern Texas.

They are not always right. Both the GFS and Euro show most areas in SE Texas picking up at least 2 inches.

[Cpv17]

The WPC is really cutting back on rain totals south of I-10. They have the highest rain totals in far northeastern Texas.

They are not always right. Both the GFS and Euro show most areas in SE Texas picking up at least 2 inches.

They aren’t really matching up with what the op runs show. Maybe they’re going by what the ensembles show.

[captainbarbossa19]

The WPC is really cutting back on rain totals south of I-10. They have the highest rain totals in far northeastern Texas.

They are not always right. Both the GFS and Euro show most areas in SE Texas picking up at least 2 inches.

They aren’t really matching up with what the op runs show. Maybe they’re going by what the ensembles show.

Yep. That's it, but they are leaning towards the GFS ensembles which I don't necessarily agree with. EPS shows 2-3 inches of rain widespread.

[Cpv17]

They are not always right. Both the GFS and Euro show most areas in SE Texas picking up at least 2 inches.

They aren’t really matching up with what the op runs show. Maybe they’re going by what the ensembles show.

Yep. That's it, but they are leaning towards the GFS ensembles which I don't necessarily agree with. EPS shows 2-3 inches of rain widespread.

After looking at the GEFS, you’re absolutely right. It looks like a mirror image of what the WPC is saying.

[DoctorMu]

The consensus is 2-5 inches across models and ensembles. Glorious. Hope it happens. Plants and soil are drying out.

A welcome pattern change.

[Cromagnum]

My area is bone dry, and even with all this coming, those maps have a donut over most of Brazoria County anyways...

[Cpv17]

My area is bone dry, and even with all this coming, those maps have a donut over most of Brazoria County anyways...

I agree. This looks mainly north of I-10 once again and areas that need it the most might miss out on a lot of it once again .

[captainbarbossa19]

My area is bone dry, and even with all this coming, those maps have a donut over most of Brazoria County anyways...

I agree. This looks mainly north of I-10 once again and areas that need it the most might miss out on a lot of it once again .

12z HRRR shows a line progressing all the way to the coast Sunday morning. Most areas receive 1-2 inches with the heavier storms.

[captainbarbossa19]

12z Euro is trending a lot wetter compared to 0z so far.

[jasons2k]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
302 PM CDT Fri May 20 2022

.SHORT TERM [Through Saturday Night]...
Large scale lift associated with ewd moving mid level trof across
the Big Bend area is generating a few returns on radar to our
west. Though overall atmos conditions don`t appear real favorable
for much in the way of precip coverage in our CWA, still don`t
want to completely discount the outlying ECMWF soln depicting some
late aftn & evng shra/tstms around the Brazos Valley should late
daytime heating work its magic erode cap enough to see a few more
cells develop than what the majority of guidance has been
advertising. Threw in some lowish POPs there and will keep an eye
on trends in the coming hours. Also tossed in some low POPs
elsewhere to cover any iso shra/sprinkles overnight as the
weakening disturbance passes through.

Otherwise, look for increasing cloudiness and warm conditions
overnight. Will let the wind advsy expire at 6pm. Speeds should
be falling below criteria around then...though still remain breezy
for a good portion of the night. This should keep temps from
falling much, and suspect we`ll see some record high mins
challenged at some locations.

Another breezy, warm day on tap Saturday. Probably won`t see much
if any precip during the day. But, heading into the evening hours
a cold front and probable band of shra/tstms will be approaching
northern parts of the region in the 8-11pm timeframe. Not much in
the way of shear, but instability from aftn heating and subtle
diffluence aloft may allow a few strong to iso severe cells to sag
into our northern tier of counties before the loss of instability
during the overnight hours (SPC has penciled in a slight risk
there in their Day 2 Outlook). The front should very slowly edge
southward thru the night, and assuming no significant mesoscale or
cold pool forcing, be situated somewhere around a Liberty-Edna
line toward sunrise Sunday. 47

&&

.Long Term[Sunday through Friday night]...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be likely throughout the
day on Sunday as the aforementioned cold front stalls near the
coast. Models are still indicating PWATS of 1.5-1.7" across the
region with weak shear and weak capping. With ample moisture and a
deep warm cloud layer in forecast soundings, these storms will be
efficient rain producers. Currently WPC has areas along and west
of I-45 under a marginal risk for excessive rain on Sunday, with
brief periods of heavy downpours being the primary hazard from
these storms.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms should continue into next
week as the frontal boundary lifts back to the north while a
subtropical jet enters the region on Monday evening. Though the
aforementioned boundary won`t make it very far, as an upper level
trough over the Rockies/Four corners will dig into the southern
plains, causing the boundary to stall once again on Tuesday and
sag back into SE Texas on Wednesday afternoon. Strong diffluence
aloft from this trough, paired with a strong embedded shortwave
and a 40 kt 850mb jet will provide favorable conditions for the
development of heavy rainfall across the region, particularly
along our northernmost counties. PWATS across the region peak near
1.8- 2.0" on Tuesday, with model soundings again indicating weak
shear, weak capping, high moisture, and a deep warm cloud layer.
WPC current has our northern counties under a slight risk of
excessive rain for Tuesday/Tuesday night.

With cloudy skies and plenty of rain, temperatures throughout much
of next week will be a tad cooler, with highs in the mid to upper
80s throughout the region. Rain chances should taper off on Thursday
as the boundary pushes offshore, with skies clearing as high
pressure builds over SE Texas. 03

&&

.Marine...
Southerly winds and seas will flirt with advisory levels across
all water into this weekend, then dropping to caution levels on
Saturday ahead of a cold front. This cold front will stall near
the coastline on Sunday, bringing showers and thunderstorms across
the Gulf waters. Winds may briefly back to the E/NE depending on
where the front stalls. This stalled front will lift to the north
on Monday, with showers and thunderstorms continuing throughout
much of next week. Winds will flirt with advisory levels Monday
night and into Tuesday as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of
another upper level disturbance. 03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 78 96 67 82 70 / 20 20 60 50 20
Houston (IAH) 80 93 74 86 72 / 20 10 50 70 30
Galveston (GLS) 81 89 80 86 78 / 20 10 30 60 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for the following
zones: Austin...Brazos...Burleson...Coastal
Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...Fort
Bend...Grimes...Inland Jackson...Inland
Matagorda...Madison...Matagorda
Islands...Waller...Washington...Wharton.

High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for the following
zones: Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria Islands...Galveston
Island...Matagorda Islands.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Saturday for the following
zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda
Bay...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX
from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX
from 20 to 60 NM.

[Cpv17]

The WPC only has 1-2” south of I-10 lol joke. That will almost do nothing to help the drought.

[jasons2k]

The WPC only has 1-2” south of I-10 lol joke. That will almost do nothing to help the drought.

I think that will change. Keep watching…

[Cpv17]

The WPC only has 1-2” south of I-10 lol joke. That will almost do nothing to help the drought.

I think that will change. Keep watching…

I definitely will. What I find interesting is this…. Tropical mischief maybe?

[captainbarbossa19]

The WPC only has 1-2” south of I-10 lol joke. That will almost do nothing to help the drought.

I think that will change. Keep watching…

0z HRRR has most areas receiving 1-2 inches on Sunday morning including Wharton, Matagorda, and Brazoria Counties. The WPC is not always right and quite honestly, the odds of us getting more rain rather than less are much higher this time compared to about the past 6 months. If you don't get much Sunday, there are additional high likelihoods of rain on Tuesday and Wednesday.

[Ptarmigan]

The WPC only has 1-2” south of I-10 lol joke. That will almost do nothing to help the drought.

Better than no rain.

[jasons2k]

The WPC only has 1-2” south of I-10 lol joke. That will almost do nothing to help the drought.

I think that will change. Keep watching…

0z HRRR has most areas receiving 1-2 inches on Sunday morning including Wharton, Matagorda, and Brazoria Counties. The WPC is not always right and quite honestly, the odds of us getting more rain rather than less are much higher this time compared to about the past 6 months. If you don't get much Sunday, there are additional high likelihoods of rain on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Yep. I think next week will be wet.