Long range model discussion

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 yep looks like the environment might be more favorable, will have to watch and “sea”

[Stratton20]

12z GEFS, the 29th-1st time period we may need to watch for a potential spin up

[Stratton20]

00z Euro tries to spin up some tropical mischief around day 10, we will see

[Stratton20]

12z Euro has a weak depression/storm in the BOC late next weekend, 12z EPS starting to sniff out as well

[Cpv17]

Mid to late June we may need to watch the tropics.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 yep GEFS and GEPS agree with that

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 yep GEFS and GEPS agree with that

It’s appearing to me that the western Gulf may be open for business in about 2 weeks from now.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 what are you seeing that may indicate that?

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 what are you seeing that may indicate that?

Long range ensembles are hinting at possible ridging developing over the southeast which would push any tc towards the western Gulf. Latest CPC 3-4 week forecast agrees with this as well.



At the same timeframe the GEFS is showing this:

[Stratton20]

Interesting! Guess we will see how this evolves over the next 10-12 days

[Stratton20]

12z GEFS now inside of 10 days, definitely a growing signal, could be another CAG setup

[Cpv17]

12z GEFS now inside of 10 days, definitely a growing signal, could be another CAG setup

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 even the latest operational GFS is starting to show something

[Stratton20]

Even the operational 12z CMC is starting to show. hints at development in the gulf on days 8/9

[Cpv17]

Latest ECMWF seasonal forecast shows an ACE of 225 but it looks much more active for the eastern Gulf than the western Gulf which pretty much agrees with other forecasts I’ve seen as well. I’m not really high on Texas this year having any major tropical impacts if I’m being completely honest but long range seasonal forecasts can often be wrong so we’ll see what happens.

[don]

Even the operational 12z CMC is starting to show. hints at development in the gulf on days 8/9

12z CMC actually shows a tropical storm heading towards the middle or upper Texas coast fwiw.GEFS have also been fairly consistent on showing something around that time frame.Middle to late month may be interesting in the gulf, something to watch over the next week will be to see if models start to trend more or not towards TC development.

[Stratton20]

Don definitely, will say though thats pretty sheared TC on the CMC run, whatever may try to form could be lopsided

[don]

Don definitely, will say though thats pretty sheared TC on the CMC run, whatever may try to form could be lopsided

That's normal and expected though, most storms developing in June will be weak and sheared lopsided storms.Usually you need to be on the right side of the storm to get decent rain from these kind of systems.The western half of the storm will be completely dry sometimes. (Nicholas last year as an example)

[Stratton20]

Don true I didnt get much from Nicholas , will see if models trend toward this, though will say the operational GFS has been a but wonky to start the hurricane season, with the GEFS being aggressive somewhat, euro should be interesting, talk about a strong signal on the 12 z EPS

[Cpv17]

Usually the Euro/EPS is fairly conservative especially in the long range so if it’s even hinting at anything that should at least raise an eyebrow.

The GFS/GEFS does a better job usually in the longer range of sniffing things out but sometimes it’s too aggressive.