Long range model discussion
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Don I will admit Im a little surprised they have a moderate zone in that area, operational models arent showing much and even the ensembles have back off quite a bit
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Cpv17 wait too soon to say that, depends on the orientation of the ridge
I’m talking about for next week. GFS has been showing two systems. One next week and one in fantasyland.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 08, 2022 1:56 pm Cpv17 wait too soon to say that, depends on the orientation of the ridge
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CPV17 ah yeah next week, definitely would get wwuashed to that south, man we need that ridge to breakdown, i am not going to enjoy the next 10 days at or above 100 lol
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CPV17 ah yeah next week, definitely would get wwuashed to that south, man we need that ridge to breakdown, i am not going to enjoy the next 10 days at or above 100 lol
Joe B thinks thinks the eastern Gulf and the rest of the southeast coast will have 10 storms and the rest of the Gulf from New Orleans on down to Mexico just 4 storms. Quite a difference.
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Joe has always been eastern
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FWIW the 12Z ICON for the first time now shows the disturbance in the NW Caribbean the GFS has been developing late next week.It also shows the tropical storm off the Carolinas that the GFS has been developing.Thats a little support for the GFS now, lets see if the CMC and EURO pick up on anything.
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Ive seen alot of crazy long range GFS runs but tonights 00z run takes the cake, stalls a category 4 just offshore the texas coast for several days with hurricane force winds along the coast, just fantasyland, though it does start development this phantom storm in the caribbean at hour 192 so its starting development time frame isnt too far out
- captainbarbossa19
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12z Euro is showing something weak in the GOM by day 10.
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- captainbarbossa19
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12z Euro has a system developing in the Caribbean by days 9 and 10. Looks the ridge starts to flatten out over us about that time too. I think that development is quite possible due to anomalous westerlies in the MDR and Caribbean.
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