June 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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captainbarbossa19
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don wrote: Wed Jun 22, 2022 12:20 pm Sure does look good indeed, it also shows the low level vorticity some of the other models have been picking up on.But keeps it partially inland riding the coast of Louisiana and moving west into Texas which helps to enhance rainfall with the stalled frontal boundary.
I just looked and due to all the rain/clouds, the GFS only has our highs in the 80s most of next week. That seems hard to believe! However, I am thinking now that this weekend may not be quite as hot as projected a few days ago. I am thinking now right around 100 instead of 105+ for most areas.
Cromagnum
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captainbarbossa19 wrote: Wed Jun 22, 2022 12:40 pm
don wrote: Wed Jun 22, 2022 12:20 pm Sure does look good indeed, it also shows the low level vorticity some of the other models have been picking up on.But keeps it partially inland riding the coast of Louisiana and moving west into Texas which helps to enhance rainfall with the stalled frontal boundary.
I just looked and due to all the rain/clouds, the GFS only has our highs in the 80s most of next week. That seems hard to believe! However, I am thinking now that this weekend may not be quite as hot as projected a few days ago. I am thinking now right around 100 instead of 105+ for most areas.
Image
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captainbarbossa19
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Cromagnum wrote: Wed Jun 22, 2022 12:47 pm
captainbarbossa19 wrote: Wed Jun 22, 2022 12:40 pm
don wrote: Wed Jun 22, 2022 12:20 pm Sure does look good indeed, it also shows the low level vorticity some of the other models have been picking up on.But keeps it partially inland riding the coast of Louisiana and moving west into Texas which helps to enhance rainfall with the stalled frontal boundary.
I just looked and due to all the rain/clouds, the GFS only has our highs in the 80s most of next week. That seems hard to believe! However, I am thinking now that this weekend may not be quite as hot as projected a few days ago. I am thinking now right around 100 instead of 105+ for most areas.
Image
Then we have an accord. :)
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tireman4
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00
FXUS64 KHGX 221742
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1242 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

VFR conditions should prevail through the duration of the TAF
period A few isolated showers continue to linger near the coast
with activity expected to pick up over the next 1-3 hours as the
sea breeze moves inland. Isolated showers and storms will
continue through around 00Z around and south of the Houston metro,
after which activity will diminish with the loss of daytime
heating. Light to moderate south to south-southwest winds continue
through the afternoon with winds becoming light and variable
overnight. Some patchy fog may develop to the southwest of the
metro area overnight but impacts should be limited.

Cady

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 619 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022/...

.SHORT TERM [Today through Thursday Night]...

Currently.... Sfc obs and satellite imagery show patchy fog and few
to scattered low clouds developing along and west of the I-45
corridor. Fog and/or stratus will quickly dissipate/lift shortly
after daybreak. Isolated showers are also developing and moving
along the coastal zones. Expect this activity to continue through 7-
8AM.

Today... Similar weather pattern is expected today with hot and
humid conditions and isolated showers and thunderstorms developing
inland in the afternoon. Mid to upper level ridge centered over the
ArkLaTex remains strong and will continue to expand over TX today.
Sfc high pressure over the northern Gulf coast will shift westward
into the Upper TX coast throughout the day, providing efficient WAA
into the region. With that being said, isolated convection can be
expected inland with the seabreeze. Highs will once again climb from
the low 90s along the coast to near 101 degrees across our
northwestern counties. With low sfc dewpoint values throughout the
day (from 60s to low 70s; afternoon heat indices will range from 102
to 107 degrees.

Thursday... Ridging will continue to move westward into TX in the
next few days, providing more subsidence into the region. However, a
few fast-moving ripples/shortwaves will attempt to ride along the
southeastern periphery of the mid/upper ridge on Thursday. With
moderate low to mid level moisture and instability; a few showers
and storms will be possible, mainly north of I-10. In terms of
temperatures, it will be even hotter. Highs from the upper 90s to
near 102 degrees are expected. Overnight lows from the upper 70s to
mid 80s.

05


.LONG TERM [Friday Through Wednesday]...

Persistent high pressure overhead will keep Southeast Texas hot with
minimal rain chances. Daytime highs will flirt with triple digits
near 100-102 degF on Friday through Sunday for inland locations and
upper 90s closer to the coast. Southwesterly flow aloft will bring
in a drier airmass, which will mix down to the surface each
afternoon and help significantly lower dewpoints. These lower
dewpoints should keep us short of Heat Advisory criteria, but a few
isolated areas of 103 degF cannot be ruled out this weekend.
Overnight lows will struggle to recover and reach the upper 70s
outside of urban locations, near 80 across the Houston Metro area,
and low 80s along the coast.

Fortunately, global models are still predicting a front to push
through our area on Monday and lingering near the coast on Tuesday,
but exact timing remains uncertain. Therefore, kept rain chances
near 20-30% for Monday and Tuesday. Cloud cover should increase
early next week from this front which should help cool daytime highs
a few degrees. Inland locations will reach the upper 90s and coastal
areas will reach the mid 90s. Overnight lows will still hover in the
upper 70s to low 80s across Southeast Texas.

Lenninger


.MARINE...

Light to moderate onshore flow will persist through most of the
week. Swell will begin to subside this afternoon and seas will hover
near 2 feet through the weekend.

Lenninger

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 76 102 75 102 78 / 20 10 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 77 100 77 102 79 / 20 20 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 81 95 82 96 84 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...Lenninger
AVIATION...Cady
MARINE...Lenninger
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djmike
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Im need to frame that QPF! That looks awesome!! If we can just survive the next few days of 101-105. Its gonna be brutal.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Stratton20
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12z Euro has the weak low moving in between Corpus and Madagorda Bay, not much rain on that run though, also their are now a few GEFS members now show potential development of the low ( if it stays off shore ) just off of our coast next week FWIW, granted only about 6 or so members of the 31 show any sort of development, but its something to watch as that front stalls out next week
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captainbarbossa19
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Stratton20 wrote: Wed Jun 22, 2022 2:23 pm 12z Euro has the weak low moving in between Corpus and Madagorda Bay, not much rain on that run though, also their are now a few GEFS members now show potential development of the low ( if it stays off shore ) just off of our coast next week FWIW, granted only about 6 or so members of the 31 show any sort of development, but its something to watch as that front stalls out next week
The rotation tightens up as it moves closer to the shore. No doubt from land frictional forces. I question the lack of rain from such a system since it is tightening not breaking up.
Stratton20
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captainbarbossa19 yeag with the front stalled that will squeeze out the tropical moisture combined with potential low pressure developing in the gulf, that euro rainfall forecast is very surprising, of course if this low stays over water and does develop those rainfall projections would go up by alot
Cromagnum
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Had a nice little cell near my neighborhood but it passed on down the street from our house and flipped us the bird as it went on by.
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DoctorMu
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Yeah, a sight for sore eyes. Please, no Lucy on this QPF!

Image

CMC, Euro, even Ensembles leaning toward a wetter solution. Fingers crossed the trend is our friend.

Image
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DoctorMu
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don wrote: Wed Jun 22, 2022 12:20 pm Sure does look good indeed, it also shows the low level vorticity some of the other models have been picking up on.But keeps it partially inland riding the coast of Louisiana and moving west into Texas which helps to enhance rainfall with the stalled frontal boundary.
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ajurcat
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Fairbanks N Houston at White Oak Bayou just got 2/10 of an inch. It's amazing how the grass and plants perked up!
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jasons2k
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Just got teased again with a lot of thunder, gusty winds, but ultimately had only a few sprinkles again from a dying cell.
JDsGN
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Far Northwest Cypress (290 and 99) has hit the jackpot this week a couple times. 1.2" on Monday evening and .75 yesterday. I wasn't home when it happened yesterday but went through some good rains in Webster/League city on the way down to Galveston and saw storms towards downtown as we drove back.
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djmike
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Hows the Low looking for next week? Moisture increase? Hopefully majority of the state will benefit.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Stratton20
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djmike looking like just a rain maker which is good haha! However still cant discount the possibility the low tracks over water and possibly develops, there are a cluster of GEFS (06z run) members off the texas coast that do develop the low into a weak depression/storm
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don
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12Z ICON with a tropical storm landfall around Freeport.
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Stratton20
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Don that looks very similar to where Imelda came in( at least on this run)
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 231129
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
629 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

No significant aviation concern is anticipated as high pressure
continues to dominate the region. Isolated to scattered showers
and storms will be possible across KIAH, KCXO and KUTS terminals
this afternoon. For now, have only included VCSH given low
confidence in specific timing and coverage. Light and variable
winds will transition to the south-southeast in the afternoon
around 8 to 14 knots. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected
through the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 338 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022/...



.SHORT TERM [Today Through Friday Night]...

It`s gonna be even hotter today. The heat re-intensifies today as
the mid-upper level ridge expands and strengthens over TX. At the
sfc, high pressure prevails over the Upper TX coast, resulting in
light west to southwest winds, shifting then to the south as the
high slightly moves eastward. Highs will climb from the mid to upper
90s along the coast and into the triple digits north of I-10.
Warmest readings are expected over the Brazos Valley with highs from
101 to 103 degrees. Afternoon heat index will range from 105 to 107
degrees across most of the region. Heat index values will be the
highest along and east of I-45 with isolated spots of 108-109
degrees across our far northeastern counties. In terms of
precipitation, some fast-moving shortwaves embedded in the upper-
level ridge will move over the area today. This will provide enough
forcing that combined with low-level convergence and moisture,
isolated to scattered convection can be expected. The best chance
for precipitation will be along and north of I-10 this afternoon
through early evening.

Another warm and muggy night is anticipated with lows from the mid
70s to low 80s. Residual low-level moisture, light winds and mostly
clear skies will provide good radiational cooling overnight.
Therefore, areas of fog and/or low clouds will be possible,
especially over the southwestern zones into early Friday morning.

The heat continues on Friday with plenty of sunshine and light
winds. 850 temperatures rise around 24-25 degrees C across our
northwestern counties, suggesting temperatures as high as 103
degrees (isolated values of 104 degrees are possible). Heat
Advisories will have to be issued at some point. Rain and storm
chances will be limited/very low due to strong subsidence at low to
mid-levels.

05


.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Thursday]...

The weekend will continue to be hot with minimal rain chances.
Daytime highs will hover near triple digit values of 100-102 degF
for inland locations and mid to upper 90s near the coast.
Southwesterly flow aloft will help mix down drier dewpoints in the
afternoon which should keep heat index values just shy of Heat
Advisory criteria. However, a few isolated areas of 103 degF
cannot be ruled out this weekend either. Overnight lows will will
be warm and humid as dewpoints climb and temps only cool to the
upper 70s north of Houston, near 80 across the Houston Metro area,
and lower 80s near the coast.

Global models are still confident that a front will march through
Texas on Monday and make its way to our coast by Monday evening.
The GFS and ECMWF are also hinting at an easterly moving mid level
shortwave pushing across the Gulf Coast and spinning up a coastal
low that will reach our coastal waters in time for the frontal
passage. This should enhance rain chances near the coast and for
our coastal waters should the timing of these two features
coincide. For now, kept rain chances 20-35% across Southeast
Texas. Both of these models are also showing the front and
shortwave lingering along the Gulf Coast through Thursday, helping
to increase rain chances slightly each day next week with
activity peaking in the afternoon with daytime heating. Therefore,
kept at least slight rain chances for Southeast Texas for Tuesday
onwards.

Lenninger


.MARINE...

Onshore flow will keep seas around 2 feet through next week.
A few coastal showers possible during the early morning hours most
day, but will push inland and dissipate by lunch time. A late
season front will push through our coastal waters on Monday and
stall near the coast on Tuesday, so isolated showers and storms
possible early next week until this front dissipates.

Lenninger

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 103 74 103 74 102 / 20 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 100 78 102 77 101 / 20 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 95 82 96 82 94 / 10 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...Lenninger
AVIATION...05
MARINE...Lenninger
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don
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12Z GFS trending stronger with the area of low pressure.Doesn't develop it like the 12Z ICON but tries to develop the system at the last minute before it moves inland. Almost closes off the low near the coast.With plenty of precip with it also. ;)
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Screenshot 2022-06-23 at 11-21-34 Models GFS — Pivotal Weather.png
Screenshot 2022-06-23 at 11-13-05 Models GFS — Pivotal Weather.png
Screenshot 2022-06-23 at 11-12-46 Models GFS — Pivotal Weather.png
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