June 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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DoctorMu
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Re: June 2022

Post by DoctorMu » Wed Jun 22, 2022 4:40 pm

don wrote:
Wed Jun 22, 2022 11:20 am
Sure does look good indeed, it also shows the low level vorticity some of the other models have been picking up on.But keeps it partially inland riding the coast of Louisiana and moving west into Texas which helps to enhance rainfall with the stalled frontal boundary.
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ajurcat
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Re: June 2022

Post by ajurcat » Wed Jun 22, 2022 6:38 pm

Fairbanks N Houston at White Oak Bayou just got 2/10 of an inch. It's amazing how the grass and plants perked up!

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jasons2k
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Re: June 2022

Post by jasons2k » Wed Jun 22, 2022 7:15 pm

Just got teased again with a lot of thunder, gusty winds, but ultimately had only a few sprinkles again from a dying cell.

JDsGN
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Re: June 2022

Post by JDsGN » Thu Jun 23, 2022 7:52 am

Far Northwest Cypress (290 and 99) has hit the jackpot this week a couple times. 1.2" on Monday evening and .75 yesterday. I wasn't home when it happened yesterday but went through some good rains in Webster/League city on the way down to Galveston and saw storms towards downtown as we drove back.

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djmike
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Re: June 2022

Post by djmike » Thu Jun 23, 2022 9:27 am

Hows the Low looking for next week? Moisture increase? Hopefully majority of the state will benefit.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)

Stratton20
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Re: June 2022

Post by Stratton20 » Thu Jun 23, 2022 9:29 am

djmike looking like just a rain maker which is good haha! However still cant discount the possibility the low tracks over water and possibly develops, there are a cluster of GEFS (06z run) members off the texas coast that do develop the low into a weak depression/storm

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don
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Re: June 2022

Post by don » Thu Jun 23, 2022 10:01 am

12Z ICON with a tropical storm landfall around Freeport.
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Stratton20
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Re: June 2022

Post by Stratton20 » Thu Jun 23, 2022 10:12 am

Don that looks very similar to where Imelda came in( at least on this run)

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tireman4
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Re: June 2022

Post by tireman4 » Thu Jun 23, 2022 10:28 am

000
FXUS64 KHGX 231129
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
629 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

No significant aviation concern is anticipated as high pressure
continues to dominate the region. Isolated to scattered showers
and storms will be possible across KIAH, KCXO and KUTS terminals
this afternoon. For now, have only included VCSH given low
confidence in specific timing and coverage. Light and variable
winds will transition to the south-southeast in the afternoon
around 8 to 14 knots. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected
through the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 338 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022/...



.SHORT TERM [Today Through Friday Night]...

It`s gonna be even hotter today. The heat re-intensifies today as
the mid-upper level ridge expands and strengthens over TX. At the
sfc, high pressure prevails over the Upper TX coast, resulting in
light west to southwest winds, shifting then to the south as the
high slightly moves eastward. Highs will climb from the mid to upper
90s along the coast and into the triple digits north of I-10.
Warmest readings are expected over the Brazos Valley with highs from
101 to 103 degrees. Afternoon heat index will range from 105 to 107
degrees across most of the region. Heat index values will be the
highest along and east of I-45 with isolated spots of 108-109
degrees across our far northeastern counties. In terms of
precipitation, some fast-moving shortwaves embedded in the upper-
level ridge will move over the area today. This will provide enough
forcing that combined with low-level convergence and moisture,
isolated to scattered convection can be expected. The best chance
for precipitation will be along and north of I-10 this afternoon
through early evening.

Another warm and muggy night is anticipated with lows from the mid
70s to low 80s. Residual low-level moisture, light winds and mostly
clear skies will provide good radiational cooling overnight.
Therefore, areas of fog and/or low clouds will be possible,
especially over the southwestern zones into early Friday morning.

The heat continues on Friday with plenty of sunshine and light
winds. 850 temperatures rise around 24-25 degrees C across our
northwestern counties, suggesting temperatures as high as 103
degrees (isolated values of 104 degrees are possible). Heat
Advisories will have to be issued at some point. Rain and storm
chances will be limited/very low due to strong subsidence at low to
mid-levels.

05


.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Thursday]...

The weekend will continue to be hot with minimal rain chances.
Daytime highs will hover near triple digit values of 100-102 degF
for inland locations and mid to upper 90s near the coast.
Southwesterly flow aloft will help mix down drier dewpoints in the
afternoon which should keep heat index values just shy of Heat
Advisory criteria. However, a few isolated areas of 103 degF
cannot be ruled out this weekend either. Overnight lows will will
be warm and humid as dewpoints climb and temps only cool to the
upper 70s north of Houston, near 80 across the Houston Metro area,
and lower 80s near the coast.

Global models are still confident that a front will march through
Texas on Monday and make its way to our coast by Monday evening.
The GFS and ECMWF are also hinting at an easterly moving mid level
shortwave pushing across the Gulf Coast and spinning up a coastal
low that will reach our coastal waters in time for the frontal
passage. This should enhance rain chances near the coast and for
our coastal waters should the timing of these two features
coincide. For now, kept rain chances 20-35% across Southeast
Texas. Both of these models are also showing the front and
shortwave lingering along the Gulf Coast through Thursday, helping
to increase rain chances slightly each day next week with
activity peaking in the afternoon with daytime heating. Therefore,
kept at least slight rain chances for Southeast Texas for Tuesday
onwards.

Lenninger


.MARINE...

Onshore flow will keep seas around 2 feet through next week.
A few coastal showers possible during the early morning hours most
day, but will push inland and dissipate by lunch time. A late
season front will push through our coastal waters on Monday and
stall near the coast on Tuesday, so isolated showers and storms
possible early next week until this front dissipates.

Lenninger

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 103 74 103 74 102 / 20 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 100 78 102 77 101 / 20 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 95 82 96 82 94 / 10 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...Lenninger
AVIATION...05
MARINE...Lenninger

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don
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Re: June 2022

Post by don » Thu Jun 23, 2022 10:37 am

12Z GFS trending stronger with the area of low pressure.Doesn't develop it like the 12Z ICON but tries to develop the system at the last minute before it moves inland. Almost closes off the low near the coast.With plenty of precip with it also. ;)
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Screenshot 2022-06-23 at 11-21-34 Models GFS — Pivotal Weather.png
Screenshot 2022-06-23 at 11-13-05 Models GFS — Pivotal Weather.png
Screenshot 2022-06-23 at 11-12-46 Models GFS — Pivotal Weather.png

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