June 2022
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DoctorMu Agreed, 18z GFS goes absolutely crazy with the wave after it gets into the eastern caribbean , definitely one to watch, and definitely not a good sign on what may come down the road in the tropics
We now have invest 94L out in the MDR.
As hot as the gulf waters are, it only take 1 strong landfall Hurricane to make it a bad yearStratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 23, 2022 6:23 pm DoctorMu Agreed, 18z GFS goes absolutely crazy with the wave after it gets into the eastern caribbean , definitely one to watch, and definitely not a good sign on what may come down the road in the tropics
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Don yup and the GFS has a pretty Hefty bullseye of 7-10 inches along the coast from this run, will definitely have to watch and see if any development occurs as that could easily lead to rain fall totals going up with a more organized system
- captainbarbossa19
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Yep. Watch this be a major rain event because we have been so dry the past few months.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 23, 2022 11:49 pm Don yup and the GFS has a pretty Hefty bullseye of 7-10 inches along the coast from this run, will definitely have to watch and see if any development occurs as that could easily lead to rain fall totals going up with a more organized system
Here we go…. Stay hydrated and stay cool! Help out the elderly or neighbor if needing assistance in this weekend’s extreme heat. Stay safe everyone!
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
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06z GFS is still really close to closing off a Low FWIW
HGX mentions the vorticity and surface trough in there discussion this morning.
Weather pattern begins to change Sunday night into the upcoming
week as ridging aloft weakens. In fact, a reinforcing surge of
Gulf moisture will move through the region with PWATs increasing
into the 2.0 to 2.2 inch range by Monday. Additionally, a weak sfc
boundary is progged to move through Southeast TX while some mid-
level vort maxes ride the southeastern edge of the upper-level
ridge. Sufficient forcing aloft, deep convergence and moisture
will result in showers and thunderstorms ahead and along the
boundary. It won`t be a complete washout, but at least, a relief
from the heat. The aforementioned front retreats and becomes
quasi-stationary over the Gulf waters after Tuesday. With abundant
moisture and low-level convergence this will be the main focus
for rain/storm chances through most of the week. Have kept 20 to
45 of PoPs through the week with highest chances Monday and
Tuesday.