June 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Stratton20
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DoctorMu Agreed, 18z GFS goes absolutely crazy with the wave after it gets into the eastern caribbean , definitely one to watch, and definitely not a good sign on what may come down the road in the tropics
Cpv17
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We now have invest 94L out in the MDR.
walsean1
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Stratton20 wrote: Thu Jun 23, 2022 6:23 pm DoctorMu Agreed, 18z GFS goes absolutely crazy with the wave after it gets into the eastern caribbean , definitely one to watch, and definitely not a good sign on what may come down the road in the tropics
As hot as the gulf waters are, it only take 1 strong landfall Hurricane to make it a bad year
Stratton20
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00z ICON still develops a weak tropical storm next week FWIW, makes landfall around galveston
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don
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The 0Z GFS also tries to spin up the system before it moves inland.
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Stratton20
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Don yup and the GFS has a pretty Hefty bullseye of 7-10 inches along the coast from this run, will definitely have to watch and see if any development occurs as that could easily lead to rain fall totals going up with a more organized system
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captainbarbossa19
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Stratton20 wrote: Thu Jun 23, 2022 11:49 pm Don yup and the GFS has a pretty Hefty bullseye of 7-10 inches along the coast from this run, will definitely have to watch and see if any development occurs as that could easily lead to rain fall totals going up with a more organized system
Yep. Watch this be a major rain event because we have been so dry the past few months.
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djmike
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Here we go…. Stay hydrated and stay cool! Help out the elderly or neighbor if needing assistance in this weekend’s extreme heat. Stay safe everyone!
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Stratton20
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06z GFS is still really close to closing off a Low FWIW
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don
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HGX mentions the vorticity and surface trough in there discussion this morning.
Weather pattern begins to change Sunday night into the upcoming
week as ridging aloft weakens. In fact, a reinforcing surge of
Gulf moisture will move through the region with PWATs increasing
into the 2.0 to 2.2 inch range by Monday. Additionally, a weak sfc
boundary is progged to move through Southeast TX while some mid-
level vort maxes ride the southeastern edge of the upper-level
ridge. Sufficient forcing aloft, deep convergence and moisture
will result in showers and thunderstorms ahead and along the
boundary. It won`t be a complete washout, but at least, a relief
from the heat. The aforementioned front retreats and becomes
quasi-stationary over the Gulf waters after Tuesday. With abundant
moisture and low-level convergence this will be the main focus
for rain/storm chances through most of the week. Have kept 20 to
45 of PoPs through the week with highest chances Monday and
Tuesday.
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