June 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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djmike
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Cpv17 wrote: Mon Jun 27, 2022 9:06 am
Cromagnum wrote: Mon Jun 27, 2022 9:04 am Rain chances down to 30% and not until late this afternoon. Based on the large plume of moisture digging southwest offshore, I'm betting we see nothing until Wednesday or Thursday.
HRRR has a nice scattering of showers south of 10 for later this afternoon.
Can you post the HRRR for this afternoon/evening?
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Cpv17
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djmike wrote: Mon Jun 27, 2022 9:53 am
Cpv17 wrote: Mon Jun 27, 2022 9:06 am
Cromagnum wrote: Mon Jun 27, 2022 9:04 am Rain chances down to 30% and not until late this afternoon. Based on the large plume of moisture digging southwest offshore, I'm betting we see nothing until Wednesday or Thursday.
HRRR has a nice scattering of showers south of 10 for later this afternoon.
Can you post the HRRR for this afternoon/evening?
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redneckweather
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So much for a wet week....isolated to scattered type showers with a few rumbles of thunder. Consider yourself lucky if you have one sit on top of you. At least the temps will be down a little.
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don
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redneckweather wrote: Mon Jun 27, 2022 10:02 am So much for a wet week....isolated to scattered type showers with a few rumbles of thunder. Consider yourself lucky if you have one sit on top of you. At least the temps will be down a little.
It was always suppose to be scattered storms.If you want widespread rain you'll have to wait to see how the tropical feature evolves later this week...
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don
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12Z NAM with a Tropical Storm making landfall in Matagorda very similar to the 6Z EURO.Most of the mesoscale models I've seen so far this morning are coming in more aggressive with the storm.
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Screenshot 2022-06-27 at 09-44-52 Models NAM — Pivotal Weather.png
Screenshot 2022-06-27 at 09-45-00 Models NAM — Pivotal Weather.png
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don
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The 12Z WRF models also came in more aggressive both show a moderate Tropical Storm now.
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Screenshot 2022-06-27 at 10-10-59 Models HRW WRF-NSSL — Pivotal Weather.png
Screenshot 2022-06-27 at 10-07-37 Models HRW WRF-ARW — Pivotal Weather(1).png
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DoctorMu
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jasons2k wrote: Mon Jun 27, 2022 6:34 am So for days and days and days Monday (today) was supposed to be a big rain day. And now the latest forecast only has 30%??
That’s just not right. Lucy Lucy waves hello.
Total bust IMBY last night. The cells circumvented us.
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DoctorMu
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Most of the mesos have sparse rain over the next few days. This is about the most optimistic.

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don
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Makes since as the TC is absorbing all the moisture away.BTW there is a rapid increase in convection south of Louisiana this morning with a broad circulation forming.
Dls2010r
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I’m in Santa Fe. The cloud cover is amazing.🙂
mcheer23
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Not sure why chances are still at 10/20. I have them at 30/50 right now.
Stratton20
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mcheer23 they are pretty conservative, i would be shocked if they dont up the development odds at the 2 pm outlook
TexasBreeze
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don wrote: Mon Jun 27, 2022 10:59 am Makes since as the TC is absorbing all the moisture away.BTW there is a rapid increase in convection south of Louisiana this morning with a broad circulation forming.
Is that the area to watch? I noticed that a bit ago there
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don
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TexasBreeze wrote: Mon Jun 27, 2022 11:17 am
don wrote: Mon Jun 27, 2022 10:59 am Makes since as the TC is absorbing all the moisture away.BTW there is a rapid increase in convection south of Louisiana this morning with a broad circulation forming.
Is that the area to watch? I noticed that a bit ago there
Yes that's the area that will slowly move west over the next couple of days.
Stratton20
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It definitely appears a broad circulation is attempting to form like Don said, interesting days ahead
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captainbarbossa19
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mcheer23 wrote: Mon Jun 27, 2022 11:05 am Not sure why chances are still at 10/20. I have them at 30/50 right now.
They have the other wave east of 94L with identical chances over 5 days even though it has less model support. Real-time trends show increasing vorticity over the Gulf at 925 and 850mb. Imo, I agree the chances should be higher than 10/20 at this point.
mcheer23
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New update...still 20 percent...
Kingwood32
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mcheer23 wrote: Mon Jun 27, 2022 1:13 pm New update...still 20 percent...
They must know something we don't lol...
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don
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12Z Euro went back to showing a Tropical Low or Depression.
mcheer23
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don wrote: Mon Jun 27, 2022 1:37 pm 12Z Euro went back to showing a Tropical Low or Depression.
Yup, nice rainfall totals though. Widespread 3-5 inches on the west side. Isolated 6+
Last edited by mcheer23 on Mon Jun 27, 2022 1:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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