July 2022

[djmike]

Looks like its ALL going west of us.

[jasons2k]

Nice MCS.
Wrong location/trajectory!!!

Looking for development upstream this afternoon. It’s still early folks. Lots of heating and moisture to work with today.

[Stratton20]

I might actually get rain! Bot I really hope that line doesn’t fizzle out, heading right towards CS

[JDsGN]

Nice MCS.
Wrong location/trajectory!!!

Looking for development upstream this afternoon. It’s still early folks. Lots of heating and moisture to work with today.

Lots of heating and moisture every day haha Sorry had to. But I agree, i think this line blows up as it approaches this afternoon. Fingers crossed

[Cpv17]

The NAM 3km looks by far the best out of all the mesoscale models and that’s a red flag for me because I’m not too big on the NAM when it comes to precipitation. Still though I do think today stands a legit chance for a lot of us to see something.

[jasons2k]

The GFS wants to give me .60”
HRRR - nothing.
Gonna be an interesting afternoon.

[jasons2k]

On Hi-res satellite it looks like a little upper level shortwave is rotating in north of Beaumont. This is setting up a convergence zone along the US-59 corridor. I’ll be watching this area for storms to initiate.

[Cromagnum]

Hope that radar starts to fill in a lot east of that big complex. If it doesn't, none of us are getting wet.

[Kludge]

Hope that radar starts to fill in a lot east of that big complex. If it doesn't, none of us are getting wet.

Well my hope is that I'm considered one of "us", and for the first time in 45 days I'm getting wet.

[DoctorMu]

I might actually get rain! Bot I really hope that line doesn’t fizzle out, heading right towards CS

It's going to be close. I think it fizzles at the Grimes Co. - Brazos Co. border.

"Lucy and the Outflow"

[jasons2k]

I might actually get rain! Bot I really hope that line doesn’t fizzle out, heading right towards CS

It's going to be close. I think it fizzles at the Grimes Co. - Brazos Co. border.

"Lucy and the Outflow"

Unfortunately, yeah, that outflow is starting to outrun it on its western flank. But I’m closely watching the SE side up near Livingston. I’m hoping that will punch down this way over the afternoon.

[DoctorMu]

I think the Woodlands will see some of those cells on the southern part of the outflow. Hope Jason doesn't get donut-holed again.

[DoctorMu]

I might actually get rain! Bot I really hope that line doesn’t fizzle out, heading right towards CS

It's going to be close. I think it fizzles at the Grimes Co. - Brazos Co. border.

"Lucy and the Outflow"

Unfortunately, yeah, that outflow is starting to outrun it on its western flank. But I’m closely watching the SE side up near Livingston. I’m hoping that will punch down this way over the afternoon.

Yes - you beat me to that thought.

[jasons2k]

At 1225 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Wixon Valley to 7 miles east of Anderson
to near Coldspring. Movement was southwest at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
College Station, Bryan, Conroe, Navasota, Willis, Washington,
Shepherd, Panorama Village, Cut And Shoot, New Waverly, Coldspring,
Montgomery, Snook, Kurten, Wixon Valley, Millican, Anderson, Todd
Mission, Lake Livingston State Park and Lake Conroe Dam.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

If on or near Lake Conroe, get out of the water and move indoors or
inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles
from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not
be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

[DoctorMu]

NOAA has our rain chances up to 70%. Hope that doesn't jinx it.

lol I see some outflow breeze out my window and clouds. Temps in the 90s instead of 100s. Small victories.

[DoctorMu]

At 1225 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Wixon Valley to 7 miles east of Anderson
to near Coldspring. Movement was southwest at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
College Station, Bryan, Conroe, Navasota, Willis, Washington,
Shepherd, Panorama Village, Cut And Shoot, New Waverly, Coldspring,
Montgomery, Snook, Kurten, Wixon Valley, Millican, Anderson, Todd
Mission, Lake Livingston State Park and Lake Conroe Dam.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

If on or near Lake Conroe, get out of the water and move indoors or
inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles
from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not
be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

The wind is picking up here. No rain of course yet.

The outflow cells and MCV will jump over us, reform, and Houston I think will see significant showers.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 141739
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1239 PM CDT Thu Jul 14 2022

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

Latest radar imagery continues to indicate a line of thunderstorms
pushing to the southwest towards the Houston metro area.
Thunderstorm activity will increase in coverage over the next
several hours, with additional development expected along the sea
breeze. Have opted to include VCTS wording in the 18Z TAF package
with TEMPO groups for prevailing TSRA conditions associated with
the advancing line of storms. Wind gusts may briefly reach
20-30kts as storms move through the area. In general, conditions
should remain VFR although temporary visibility reductions due to
rainfall may result in brief category restrictions. Storms will
diminish after sunset, with light and variable winds overnight and
scattered to broken high clouds.

Cady

[jasons2k]

Still 40% pops from the NWS for me. But I think it's going to rain.

[jasons2k]

Not a good trend at the moment. Building more into SW Montgomery County already

[DoctorMu]

As predicted the outflow blasted through...and nothing. The cells with any energy are heading toward Hempstead and Brenham.