August 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Cpv17
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Re: August 2022

Post by Cpv17 » Fri Aug 05, 2022 5:45 pm

user:null wrote:
Fri Aug 05, 2022 5:33 pm
The rain coverage last week helped alot, especially here in Ft. Bend county. Deeper green grass, trees, etc and other signs of verdance coming in full force, rather than looking like a Rio Grande brush land as earlier in June/first half July.
It’s terrible here in a good part of Wharton County.

user:null
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Re: August 2022

Post by user:null » Fri Aug 05, 2022 7:47 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Fri Aug 05, 2022 5:45 pm
It’s terrible here in a good part of Wharton County.
True. That's why the rain chances this weekend into next week are important.

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captainbarbossa19
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Re: August 2022

Post by captainbarbossa19 » Fri Aug 05, 2022 10:41 pm

A lot of showers just off the coastline this evening. That's the most we've had out there this time of evening in a while. The air mass on top is very tropical right now.

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jasons2k
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Re: August 2022

Post by jasons2k » Sat Aug 06, 2022 6:57 am

Nooo!!
I had a 60% chance of rain today, woke-up and now it’s 40%. Noooo!!!

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DoctorMu
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Re: August 2022

Post by DoctorMu » Sat Aug 06, 2022 9:37 am

jasons2k wrote:
Fri Aug 05, 2022 4:01 pm
It’s a donut fest!! Maybe tomorrow I shouldn’t post that meme :(
We had a few minutes of very light rain IMBY according to my wife, but not the potential downpour.

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jasons2k
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Re: August 2022

Post by jasons2k » Sat Aug 06, 2022 9:40 am

This light green stuff all over Harris County is cutting out the sun and any instability to build new storms up here….not liking today’s setup so far.

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DoctorMu
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Re: August 2022

Post by DoctorMu » Sat Aug 06, 2022 9:46 am

The good news is that with the ridge easing slightly north into the central plains, there could be a return to ordinary summer conditions. Upper 90s to 100°F in CLL and 20-30% chance of rain for the next week and low to mid 90s in the HOU area with a 30-60% chance of rain daily.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
624 AM CDT Sat Aug 6 2022

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

VFR conditions will generally prevail through the period with the
exception of CXO which has been experiencing some low CIGs this
morning - but this should scatter out within the next couple of
hours. Scattered showers are currently making their way onshore
and will expand across most of the region through the mid to late
morning. By the afternoon, expect isolated to scattered thunderstorms
as well. Cannot get too specific on exactly where these storms
will be popping up, so had to keep a generic VCTS for most TAF
sites. Drier conditions across the northwest will dissipate these
storms before getting to CLL. Coverage diminishes after sunset,
however some isolated thunderstorms may pop up over night across
the coastal waters and near GLS. South to southeasterly winds will
prevail through the weekend and into next week.

Fowler

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 348 AM CDT Sat Aug 6 2022/...

.SHORT TERM [Through Sunday Night]...

Expect the relatively "cooler" weather to continue this weekend
thanks to partly cloudy skies and scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Daytime high temperatures today will be in the low to
mid 90s for much of the region with areas along the coast in the
upper 80s and upper 90s in the B/CS area. The one caveat will be
wherever wins the rain lottery keeping the temperatures a few
degrees cooler. For Sunday, take whatever high you get today then
add about two to three degrees to it. Heat indices will be in the
100 to 105 range today and Sunday. Overnight lows tonight and Sunday
night will be in the mid to upper 70s.

The precipitation that we received yesterday was enhanced by a
shortwave rounding the bottom of an upper level ridge to our north,
which we won`t have helping the thunderstorm activity today.
However, that doesn`t mean we won`t be seeing some isolated to
scattered thunderstorms. They will still be possible thanks to PWATs
climbing to 2.1 to 2.3" combined with daytime heating. The scattered
nature of the storms will make pinpointing where the storms a bit
difficult, but CAM guidance has been pretty consistent that our
southwestern counties (Matagorda, Wharton, Brazoria, and Fort Bend
counties) will be favored for storm development through around noon.
Then most of the region comes into play through the afternoon. Most
people will not see any rain, but with PWATs as high as they are,
expect locally heavy rainfall of up to around an inch for where it
does rain. Storm coverage decreases through the evening with the
loss of daytime heating. Similar conditions will be expected for
Sunday with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the
early morning hours along the coast. Storm coverage through the day
on Sunday may be a bit less than today as PWATs will be slightly
lower to around 1.8 to 2".

Fowler

.LONG TERM [Monday Through Saturday]...

In general, we remain under a typical summertime synoptic regime
through the duration of the upcoming week with precipitation
chances remaining in the forecast throughout. Upper ridging
continues to dominate the Central CONUS by Monday, with broad
surface high pressure over the southeast continuing to promote an
onshore flow pattern across SE TX. Given this, we should continue
to have abundant moisture available throughout the course of next
week with global models continuing to indicate total PWs
consistently near or above 2.0 in. With most locations seeing
daily high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s, we shouldn`t have
too much of a problem reaching convective temps each afternoon
which along with the diurnal propagation of the sea/bay breezes
should provide support for isolated to scattered thunderstorms
during the afternoon and evening each day. Have generally
maintained 20-40% PoPs through Wednesday as a result.

Another chance for more widespread rainfall arrives on Thursday
as another midlevel inverted trough/low pushes into the Central
Gulf, providing an increase in PVA sufficient to maintain greater
precipitation coverage similar to what we saw yesterday. PoP
values in the 40-60% range will be common on Thu/Friday given the
more favorable pattern. Have reduced temperatures slightly given
the expected rainfall coverage (and thereby afternoon cloud
cover), but highs should generally remain in the 90s regardless.
Precipitation chances taper off slightly heading into next weekend
as the aforementioned inverted trough departs to the west.

Cady

Cromagnum
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Re: August 2022

Post by Cromagnum » Sat Aug 06, 2022 9:55 am

Good storms came through last night and once again evaporated as they crossed near us. Something about my area just kills these storms every time.

Stratton20
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Re: August 2022

Post by Stratton20 » Sat Aug 06, 2022 10:14 am

12z ICON gets very close to closing off a Low in the NW GOM around the 12-13th fwiw

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jasons2k
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Re: August 2022

Post by jasons2k » Sat Aug 06, 2022 10:23 am

Stratton20 wrote:
Sat Aug 06, 2022 10:14 am
12z ICON gets very close to closing off a Low in the NW GOM around the 12-13th fwiw
It’s always the system that’s a week away….
After so many disappointments I just can’t get my hopes up. I’ll believe it when it’s raining raining IMBY.

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