August 2022

[Pas_Bon]

Woo hoo. I see 80-90% coverage of rain starting today thru Saturday for the triangle. Hadn’t seen those percentages since our blob in the gulf. QPF looks good for Houston as well. Hopefully we ALL get something beneficial between now and Sunday. Fingers crossed!

The rich get richer...

I say Houston annexes the Triangle and moves it all here.....we need to import their rain.

[davidiowx]

The latest HRRR run literally donut holes Fort Bend County.. Almost hilarious as this point.. Nice band of rain for everyone but Ft Bend.

[Pas_Bon]

The latest HRRR run literally donut holes Fort Bend County.. Almost hilarious as this point.. Nice band of rain for everyone but Ft Bend.

That's what they get for all the bad stuff they do all the time.

[jasons2k]

The chance of rain will be approaching from the north, not the south, folks. I still expected the boundary to run out of steam when it hits College Station.

That’s the problem for me. The sea breeze is going to re-stabilize things before it gets here. I’ll believe it’s gonna rain IMBY when there’s something besides dust and pine needles in my rain gauge.

[jasons2k]

Umm hmm. Kicking the can.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1259 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...
Storms...convection...have struggled to develop this morning due to mid level dry air inhibiting deeper updrafts. Looks like best chance of thunderstorms will be with boundary due to pass from north to south across the area later this afternoon and evening.
Latest HRRR and model trends suggest we may see a fairly solid
line cross from N to S between about 21Z and 03Z. Based on this
carrying window of VCTS at TAF sites to highlight this feature...but expect will update to include a tempo group once line has been established and have increased confidence in timing and location. Might see such and update within next few hours.

Reilly

[Stratton20]

12z Euro QPF over the next 10 days looks amazing for a good portion of SE Texas, widespread 2-5 inches!

[jasons2k]

TWC app is janky.
Rain chances today: 0%
Rain chances in hourly forecast: 90% at 9pm.

Whatever…

[Stratton20]

A Major pattern change is coming, the death ridge pattern is going bye bye i havent seen the outlooks thus good in forever it seems!

[Pas_Bon]

A Major pattern change is coming, the death ridge pattern is going bye bye i havent seen the outlooks thus good in forever it seems!

https://youtu.be/_nVk25ZvTkU

[jasons2k]

TWC app is janky.
Rain chances today: 0%
Rain chances in hourly forecast: 90% at 9pm.

Whatever…

And now it shows 100% for today.
Hourly shows 100% at 9pm and 10pm.

[jasons2k]

Looks like a collision of the boundaries will occur in my vicinity around 5:30-6.

The outflow up north is starting to outrun the convection. Always makes me nervous, especially here in Texas where literally every. Single. Ingredient. Must be 100% perfect for a storm to not go poof.

[DoctorMu]

Umm hmm. Kicking the can.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1259 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...
Storms...convection...have struggled to develop this morning due to mid level dry air inhibiting deeper updrafts. Looks like best chance of thunderstorms will be with boundary due to pass from north to south across the area later this afternoon and evening.
Latest HRRR and model trends suggest we may see a fairly solid
line cross from N to S between about 21Z and 03Z. Based on this
carrying window of VCTS at TAF sites to highlight this feature...but expect will update to include a tempo group once line has been established and have increased confidence in timing and location. Might see such and update within next few hours.

Reilly

Feeling your pain.

[DoctorMu]

A Major pattern change is coming, the death ridge pattern is going bye bye i havent seen the outlooks thus good in forever it seems!

Gotta be honest: NWS' long-term forecasts have been off all year. Not TWC bad...but still...

[Cromagnum]

Nice showers at work and almost all the way to the house, but of course nothing where I need it. Hope this stuff coming from the north actually does something.

[DoctorMu]

Looks like a collision of the boundaries will occur in my vicinity around 5:30-6.

The outflow up north is starting to outrun the convection. Always makes me nervous, especially here in Texas where literally every. Single. Ingredient. Must be 100% perfect for a storm to not go poof.

Welcome to the potential epicenter.

Expecting the line to jump over my house. I wouldn't give up in the HOU area...

[Stratton20]

DoctorMu it may be or maybe not, I personally thing a big change is coming, heck even David Paul of KHOU said this change is on the table for next week, and he’s one of the best meteorologists out there

[jasons2k]

Looks like a collision of the boundaries will occur in my vicinity around 5:30-6.

The outflow up north is starting to outrun the convection. Always makes me nervous, especially here in Texas where literally every. Single. Ingredient. Must be 100% perfect for a storm to not go poof.

Welcome to the potential epicenter.

Expecting the line to jump over my house. I wouldn't give up in the HOU area...

It is unfortunately not a true squall line. Just a blossoming of individual cells, like a boiling pot of water. There is a real potential for someone to quick up a quick 1/2 - 1" of rain and a couple of miles down the road it's still the Atacama Desert.

[djmike]

Wow powerful storms in Beaumont right now. 3” rates and 40mph wind gusts. Raining cats and dogs here now. Hope yall are next Houston.

[djmike]

Heaviest rain probably all year. Road starting to flood in Beaumont.

[Stratton20]

Broken line of storms just to the north of me! Come on please!