August 2022

[Cpv17]

Man DFW is getting hammered. I’m jealous lol

[TexasBreeze]

There looks to be a band setting up shop over the central part of the area. Let's see if it fills in.

[Cpv17]

There looks to be a band setting up shop over the central part of the area. Let's see if it fills in.

Honestly I wouldn’t expect much today across our area. Maybe late this afternoon or this evening there will be a better chance but even then it doesn’t look too promising.

[davidiowx]

There looks to be a band setting up shop over the central part of the area. Let's see if it fills in.

Honestly I wouldn’t expect much today across our area. Maybe late this afternoon or this evening there will be a better chance but even then it doesn’t look too promising.

Yea non of the meso models show much of anything until tomorrow - Thursday as of this morning. They do show some nice storms for most of us though.

[Cromagnum]

Quite a bit of streamers coming through from Freeport up towards Clear Lake.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

There looks to be a band setting up shop over the central part of the area. Let's see if it fills in.

Honestly I wouldn’t expect much today across our area. Maybe late this afternoon or this evening there will be a better chance but even then it doesn’t look too promising.

I have a 40% chance starting at 7 pm and it rises each hour to 70% by 10 pm and it fluctuates between 70-90% from 10 tonight until noon tomorrow.

[Stratton20]

I dont expect much in the way of storms today

[tireman4]

AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon Aug 22 2022

The primary weather interest to watch today will be the chance of
thunderstorms. Pop up showers and thunderstorms are likely through
the afternoon. Meanwhile, a line of showers and thunderstorms is
expected to approach the region from the north late this afternoon
and into the evening hours. There is some uncertainty regarding
the speed of the line as well as far south it manages to push.
Some of our high resolution models suggest the line may have a
hard time making it farther south than IAH this evening. But the
situation is complex and the models can struggle with such an
event.

IFR ceilings are possible tonight and early tomorrow morning,
especially for our northern terminals such as CLL, UTS, and CXO.
Farther south, we are expecting a mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings.

[Cpv17]

I dont expect much in the way of storms today

Just a few spotty showers today and honestly I think the rest of this week will leave some people disappointed. I really don’t expect this to be a widespread event especially the coastal counties but I hope I’m wrong. I’m just not too enthused by what I’m seeing on the mesoscale models.

[jasons2k]

I dont expect much in the way of storms today

Just a few spotty showers today and honestly I think the rest of this week will leave some people disappointed. I really don’t expect this to be a widespread event especially the coastal counties but I hope I’m wrong. I’m just not too enthused by what I’m seeing on the mesoscale models.

For whatever reason (the curse? Lucy?) all the streamers between my place and yours, keep falling apart just when it looks like they're going to form a nice band. Maybe with a little more heating they can finally bust through. It's like pulling teeth though, I swear. And the stuff to the north.....slower than watching paint dry, if it even makes it at this point.

[Pas_Bon]

I dont expect much in the way of storms today

Just a few spotty showers today and honestly I think the rest of this week will leave some people disappointed. I really don’t expect this to be a widespread event especially the coastal counties but I hope I’m wrong. I’m just not too enthused by what I’m seeing on the mesoscale models.

For whatever reason (the curse? Lucy?) all the streamers between my place and yours, keep falling apart just when it looks like they're going to form a nice band. Maybe with a little more heating they can finally bust through. It's like pulling teeth though, I swear. And the stuff to the north.....slower than watching paint dry, if it even makes it at this point.

Pulling teeth is actually 2nd nature to me

[Cpv17]

The latest CPC forecast looks fantastic!!

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 Agreed!

[jasons2k]

A tweet from Jeff Lindner is referenced in the article:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topst ... r-AA10Vy0S

[djmike]

Have a feeling Hou/Bmt will just get a line passing through overnight and hit and miss showers tomorrow and Wed. Nothing in the way of a deluge. Had 70% for me all day and they dropped it to now 40%. The last 3 days have been nothing but very good high percentages then realize nothing is happening and take it away. Right now for me NWS shows 80-90% for tomorrow. It will likely be that passing squall line you see west of SA and then poof the entire multi day rain even will be over. Last Thursday it was above 70-80% for last Friday through Wed. We had one heavy shower last Thursday and nothing since. Hopefully everyone can get beneficial rains from this whole event. Even though I may get more rain than you guys in Hou, we are still in a drought in Bmt. Time will tell but I dont think this multi day event will pan out like we thought it was (for us that is…) so far since Thursday it hasnt.

[Stratton20]

The WPC has drastically decreased rainfall for SE Texas …

[Cpv17]

Have a feeling Hou/Bmt will just get a line passing through overnight and hit and miss showers tomorrow and Wed. Nothing in the way of a deluge. Had 70% for me all day and they dropped it to now 40%. The last 3 days have been nothing but very good high percentages then realize nothing is happening and take it away. Right now for me NWS shows 80-90% for tomorrow. It will likely be that passing squall line you see west of SA and then poof the entire multi day rain even will be over. Last Thursday it was above 70-80% for last Friday through Wed. We had one heavy shower last Thursday and nothing since. Hopefully everyone can get beneficial rains from this whole event. Even though I may get more rain than you guys in Hou, we are still in a drought in Bmt. Time will tell but I dont think this multi day event will pan out like we thought it was (for us that is…) so far since Thursday it hasnt.

I completely agree but the good news is that the wet pattern looks to stay around at least for next couple weeks.

[Cpv17]

The WPC has drastically decreased rainfall for SE Texas …

The WPC did the same thing for DFW and you saw how that panned out.

[TexasBreeze]

The morning band never really got going. It moved on. Hopefully everyone gets a couple inches, but I don't think anyone needs 10 inches around here real quick. It would be better to have a Friday type rain again. Slow and steady. There are rain chances far in the future which is a great thing!

[Cromagnum]

That line to the north is going to run out of daytime heating instability way before it gets down here.