I suspect they’ll start showing development again. Just a matter of time. I still think it has a decent shot at developing. I’d put it at about 50% over the next 10 days personally.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 24, 2022 3:31 pm Cpv17 plus its no surprise our caribbean disturbance isnt doing much right now, dealing with dry air, and that’s probably why the - 12z models backed off on development , i suspect once the wave gets into the western caribbean where the environment is much more conducive, models might start to show development again
Long range model discussion
-
- Posts: 4302
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Cpv17 they probably will, the wave is just not in a favorable environment right now, plus the further west it gets before potentially starting to develop does at least concern me somewhat, seeing that the strongest members from both ensembles favor Texas or mexico
-
- Posts: 4302
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
-
- Posts: 578
- Joined: Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:48 pm
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
- Contact:
The models are going crazy with the upcoming Caribbean system.
Yep! Looks to be a Florida panhandle event.Iceresistance wrote: ↑Mon Sep 19, 2022 7:43 pm The models are going crazy with the upcoming Caribbean system.
-
- Posts: 4302
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Anywhere from Texas to Florida needs to watch this, its just simply far too early to rule out any specific area, just because history is on our side does not mean it cant happen, we wont know where this will go until it reaches the western caribbean in about 7 days, so any track projections by models right now can be taken with a massive grain of salt, steering currents can and will change when we are talking about any potential impacts to the US/GOM which are still a good 10-12 days away, even if we dont have a direct hit, we could still potentially have a close call, doesnt need to be a direct hit to bring impacts
I agree. October 1989 Texas got hit by Hurricane Jerry, so it’s not out of the question if Texas was hit again.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 19, 2022 9:42 pm Anywhere from Texas to Florida needs to watch this, its just simply far too early to rule out any specific area, just because history is on our side does not mean it cant happen, we wont know where this will go until it reaches the western caribbean in about 7 days, so any track projections by models right now can be taken with a massive grain of salt, steering currents can and will change when we are talking about any potential impacts to the US/GOM which are still a good 10-12 days away, even if we dont have a direct hit, we could still potentially have a close call, doesnt need to be a direct hit to bring impacts
-
- Posts: 4302
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
- tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4542
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located a few hundred miles east of the Windward
Islands continues to show signs of organization. Additional
development is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form
within the next few days as the system moves westward to
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central
Caribbean Sea. Interests in the Windward Islands should closely
monitor the progress of this system as heavy rainfall and gusty
winds could affect these islands beginning on Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
A tropical wave located a few hundred miles east of the Windward
Islands continues to show signs of organization. Additional
development is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form
within the next few days as the system moves westward to
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central
Caribbean Sea. Interests in the Windward Islands should closely
monitor the progress of this system as heavy rainfall and gusty
winds could affect these islands beginning on Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
Tampa is going to get spanked.
-
- Posts: 578
- Joined: Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:48 pm
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
- Contact:
12z CMC has a cold blast with temperatures below freezing near Houston next week.
-
- Posts: 4302
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Iceresistance im skeptical on that, seems way roo early for a freeze here
-
- Posts: 578
- Joined: Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:48 pm
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
- Contact:
It's gone now with a freeze as far south as Northern Mississippi and AlabamaStratton20 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 11, 2022 4:48 pm Iceresistance im skeptical on that, seems way roo early for a freeze here
-
- Posts: 4302
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Their are signs pointing that this winter could potentially be a cold one for Texas, POW Ponder made a youtube video talking about this yesterday, absolutely reliable and it was a really interesting winter outlook.
Man that’s a massive system the 12z GFS has a days 8-9. Too bad it’ll probably go away.
-
- Posts: 4302
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Cpv17 probably will, but models are starting to indicate that a significant trough will drop down unto the western US by the day 7-9 period, something to watch as the GFS has some pretty chilly air behind that system
-
- Posts: 4302
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
-
- Posts: 578
- Joined: Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:48 pm
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
- Contact:
6z GFS has a Sleetstorm for my area near the end of the run, it's that time of the year again.
-
- Information
-
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: Ahrefs [Bot], TexasBreeze, TxSummer and 88 guests