August 2022

[Cpv17]

Looks like the models have cut back on totals overnight.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 291125
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
625 AM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022

Scattered showers have already begun moving onshore and the coverage
and intensity of the precipitation will only increase through the
day. A weak upper level trough is located just off the coast which
will help enhance the showers and thunderstorms today and tomorrow.
Expecting by sunrise that most of the coastal counties will have
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms with coverage expanding
all the way to B/CS area by noon. Most people will likely see up to
half an inch of rain today, but the HREF localized probability-
matched mean (LPMM) is highlighting the potential for isolated heavy
rainfall, mainly along and south of I-10, with totals of up to 3 to
6 inches. As we have seen continued scattered showers and
thunderstorms over the past few weeks, 1 hour and 3 hour FFG has
gone down to around 3 to 4 inches. So, those areas that do see that
locally heavy rainfall may end up with some minor flooding. Not
expecting any widespread or significant flooding, but enough
rainfall that may result in some urban and small stream flooding.
The WPC has placed most areas south of Conroe in a Slight Risk for
Excessive Rainfall today.

There will be a lull in the shower and thunderstorm activity in the
late evening into early overnight hours. However, that upper level
trough will still be nearby on Tuesday, so additional scattered to
widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop early Tuesday
morning and persist through the day. Again, areas near the coast will
see the greatest chances of seeing some locally heavy rainfall. The
region is in a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall, but whatever
areas that receive the heavy rainfall today will be more
susceptible for minor flooding tomorrow if that get the heavy
rainfall again.

Thanks to the increased cloud cover and rainfall, expect
temperatures to be a bit cooler the next few days. Afternoon high
temperatures will likely be in the mid to upper 80s for most of the
region (through the B/CS area will get into the low 90s since
rainfall will be much more isolated there). Tomorrow`s high
temperatures are looking pretty similar. Overnight lows tonight and
tomorrow night will be in the mid to upper 70s.

Fowler

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022

No substantial changes were made to the ongoing fcst. Above average
rain chances should continue across much of the region with a
general weakness in the mid level flow situated in the general
vicinity. Subtle model differences exist in regards to the finer
details Wed-Fri. For example...whether western mid level ridging
expands far enough ewd into our northern zones to provide some
subsidence & precip limitations, what the moisture field will
look like on a daily basis, whether a diffuse backdoor frontal
boundary nudges into northern parts of the area, etc. Regardless,
better diurnally driven rain chances should exist across s/sw
portions of the CWA most days.

A broad easterly wave, maybe eventually stretching from Yucatan into
the ncntl Gulf will slowly make its way closer to the western Gulf
coast over the holiday weekend. Again, there are medium range
model differences regarding timing/specifics, but we`ll probably
see a day of somewhat reduced precip chances on the western/subsident
side as it nears, followed by a return of some wet wx. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 610 AM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022

Messy day ahead for the area with widespread scattered showers
and thunderstorms through the evening for CXO southwards. Expect
periods of reduced visibility due to heavy rainfall and gusty
winds if a thunderstorm passes over a terminal. Exact timing and
location of these storms is hard to determine due to the scattered
nature of the storms. The terminals with the highest chance of
seeing the heavy rainfall will be terminals south of I-10 through
noon, though the thunderstorm coverage will expand to CXO by the
afternoon. Cannot out rule some isolated storms making it to CLL
and UTS either. The showers and storms will dissipate through the
evening, but additional showers and thunderstorms are expected
tomorrow. South to southeasterly winds around 10 to 15kts will
develop this morning and continue through the evening with the
flow decreasing to around 5kts overnight.

Fowler


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 228 AM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022

Will extend the Caution flags into mid morning with ongoing
15-20kt sse winds offshore. Webcams show the surf has increased a
bit overnight and will coordinate the need for a possible rip
current statement with the Beach Patrol once they arrive and pass
along their observations. Otherwise, unsettled marine conditions
are anticipated at times today with showers and thunderstorms in
the area. Winds/seas will diminish and become light into Wednesday
with a weak pressure gradient in place. They`ll eventually become
east then eventually northeast later in the week as an easterly
wave slowly makes its way toward the western Gulf coast over the
holiday weekend. Mariners can expect periods of showers and
thunderstorms through the forecast period...mainly during the
overnight and morning hours. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 92 76 92 75 / 60 30 50 40
Houston (IAH) 87 77 90 76 / 80 40 60 30
Galveston (GLS) 86 81 87 80 / 80 40 60 40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 10 AM CDT this morning
for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

[suprdav2]

Ch 13 made it sound like everything was going to be easy of 59/south of 10. Ugh.....

[Stratton20]

One of the rare days I want it to stay dry here haha, pulling tickets for the A&M football game saturday whoop! Id rather not get soaked lol

[txsnowmaker]

Ch 13 made it sound like everything was going to be easy of 59/south of 10. Ugh.....

Getting heavy rain in Galleria area right now.

[Cromagnum]

Must have rained hard overnight at my house. My ditch was dry yesterday and half full this morning.

[Stratton20]

Interesting little feature, the suite of NAM 06z models are tryinf to show maybe a weak surface/ closed low forming in the central gulf as it drifts westward, looks like energy coming in from the east, something to watch

[Cromagnum]

I45 corridor about to see some big rain a little later this morning if that line holds.

[Dls2010r]

In Santa Fe. Been getting hammered all morning!

[Cpv17]

Ch 13 made it sound like everything was going to be easy of 59/south of 10. Ugh.....

Yeah I think the majority of it will be but possibly tomorrow other areas will have a better chance. I think today the best chance for most of us will be later this afternoon into the early evening hours.

[suprdav2]

Ch 13 made it sound like everything was going to be easy of 59/south of 10. Ugh.....

Yeah I think the majority of it will be but possibly tomorrow other areas will have a better chance. I think today the best chance for most of us will be later this afternoon into the early evening hours.

Fingers crossed!

[Cromagnum]

Whole bunch more coming from the SW for those that missed out.

[DoctorMu]

Just a GOM turbocharged trough along the old front, spewing tropical moisture inland. With no overhead ridge or cap to stop it...thus, scattered showers are the order of the day. We're at 86°F and hopefully that's close to the high as clouds dominate the sky.

NAM is focusing today's rain on the I-69 corridor.

[DoctorMu]

I noticed the 12z GFS finally gave up on a GOM TC, but does feature EPAC and Atlantic fish storms.

[don]

Interesting little feature, the suite of NAM 06z models are tryinf to show maybe a weak surface/ closed low forming in the central gulf as it drifts westward, looks like energy coming in from the east, something to watch

The EURO ICON and CMC have been showing this system for a few days now,but they keep it as an open wave for now.That moves inland into the Texas coast this upcoming weekend.Looks like the broad area of low pressure forms from the decaying frontal boundary in the Gulf combining with a piece of energy from the Caribbean.Something to watch.

[jasons2k]

Perpetually stuck in a dead zone today.

[Cpv17]

Interesting little feature, the suite of NAM 06z models are tryinf to show maybe a weak surface/ closed low forming in the central gulf as it drifts westward, looks like energy coming in from the east, something to watch

The EURO ICON and CMC have been showing this system for a few days now,but they keep it as an open wave for now.That moves inland into the Texas coast this upcoming weekend.Looks like the broad area of low pressure forms from the decaying frontal boundary in the Gulf combining with a piece of energy from the Caribbean.Something to watch.

I’m assuming it’ll increase rain chances again for later this week into the weekend.

[cperk]

I gonna start out by saying you are welcome to beat up on me concerning this post,but guys and gals are we ready to buy into the recurve solution of the GFS and the Euro 7 days out on the system the NHC has coded in orange.

[cperk]

Just received a heavy down pour and got a quick 1.01 inches YAY.

[tireman4]

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022

Primary concern will be tstorms. Scat tstorms will likely
continue to impact southeast Texas through the rest of this
afternoon. Periods of reduced visibility, IFR ceilings, and
frequent lightning are expected within thunderstorms. Gusty winds
are possible in thunderstorms as well. TS activity will wane this
evening. Widespread MVFR ceilings are expected tonight with areas
of IFR possible.

It appears a similar setup will occur tomorrow. TS/SH activity is
expected yet again tomorrow morning. This is indicated as VCSH and
VCTS in the TAFs. Confidence is relatively low regarding exact
timing and location of TS tomorrow morning and afternoon.