September 2022

[dp6]

Initiated August 8, is that a forecast from a month ago?

[Stratton20]

dp6 yes these particular models only have one run per month but they usually do a pretty good job

[tireman4]

There is a line north of Bryan..if it can stay together ..humm

[DoctorMu]

There is a line north of Bryan..if it can stay together ..humm

Yep. Incoming. Hope they stay together past us...or even get to us. Potential outflow in the making as the line is starting to break up.


Special Weather Statement
Until Sun 8 pm CDT

Action Recommended
Avoid the subject event as per the instructions
Issued By
Houston/Galveston - TX, US, National Weather Service
Affected Area
Brazos County
Description
...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northern Brazos, southwestern Houston and Madison Counties through 830 PM CDT...

At 743 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from 8 miles northwest of Austonio to 10 miles south of Centerville to 8 miles east of Hearne. Movement was southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include... Northwestern Bryan, Madisonville, Austonio, Lovelady, Kurten, Wixon Valley, Normangee and North Zulch.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN; MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

[Stratton20]

Starting to get hints in the models at possible low pressure development in the GOM next week, something to keep an eye on fwiw, the CMC especially liles the idea

[djmike]

Weve had models all summer long show possible storms or formation in the gulf and nothing as of yet has transpired. Thanks for the heads up though.

[Stratton20]

djmike well this time its not the GFS and its ridiculous fantasy storm runs, other models are hinting at it, i frankly dont trust the GFS right now , and their is a good chance nothing happens in the GOM next week, but it almost feels like we at least get one threat in september almost every year, 2019 was imelda, 2020 Beta and 2021 Nicholas, something to watch though

[Stratton20]

12z GEFS and EPS ensembles, while not strong, their is enough support that tells me this bears watching over the next week or so, the season has been quiet but we arent out of the woods yet

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 060918
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
418 AM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022

Activity is continuing over the Gulf waters along the coastal trough
as slightly drier air filters into the CWA. At the mid/upper levels,
the low/trough lingering the ArkLaTex could draw shortwaves into the
region today, but we`ll likely remain warm and mostly dry today. The
best chances for rain are expected along the coast this morning into
the afternoon with isolated development possible across the northern
portions of the CWA late this afternoon. Highs today will range from
the lower 90s for most areas...upper 80s near the coast. Low temper-
atures tonight (and tomorrow night) will be in the lower 70s...upper
70s along the immediate coast.

The forecast for tomorrow could feature slightly more activity over
SE TX as the upper low sinks a bit closer to the CWA. But there may
be issues with moisture availability as models are indicating deep-
ening NE winds at the mid and upper levels. But for now will opt to
keep scattered POPs in for the CWA...higher over our eastern
zones.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022

A relatively quiet weather pattern is anticipated in the long-term
period with low rain chances and seasonable temperatures. The mid to
upper-level pattern will feature a positive tilt trough
transitioning to a cut-off low by Thursday. This low will meander
over the Mid/Lower MS Valley Thursday into Sunday. At the sfc, the
tail-end of a frontal boundary extending along the northern Gulf
coast will impact parts of the region through the weekend. Overall,
Southeast TX will be located to the west of these aforementioned
features, i.e. in the NVA region suggesting drier/sinking air. In
fact, PWAT values decrease during this time frame with values into
the 1.2 - 1.8 inch range. Deterministic models still suggest slight
chances for precipitation each day due to diurnal heating and some
vort-max approaching the region from the east. Highest low-level
moisture looks to remain along the coastal counties and over our
coastal waters with PWATs near 1.9 inches. Therefore, have kept 15
to 30 percent PoPs in the forecast, particularly for our
southeastern counties (roughtly along and east of a line from
Palacios to Sugar Land to Livingston). Precipitation chances
decrease after late Sunday as the cut-off low weakens and
forcing/vertical motion decreases.

Temperature-wise, near to slightly above normal temperatures are
expected with highs from the upper 80s to low 90s. Overnight lows
will generally be from the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022

Low clouds/fog at some of our inland terminals this morning should
mix out by mid morning. Otherwise, generally VFR conditions are ex-
pected for the rest of the day, but some very isolated activity is
possible for our northernmost sites late this afternoon. Not going
to add any mention for now as coverage should be fairly sparse. At
the coast, rain chances will be a bit better as the coastal trough
lingers over the Gulf waters. 41

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 357 AM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022

Light and variable winds and isolated light rain will continue early
this morning, before gradually increasing in intensity and coverage
through the morning hours. Therefore, scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop and move from the Middle TX
coast into the Upper TX coast throughout the day. Gusty winds and
lightning will be the main risks with the stronger storms. Showers
and storms will gradually taper off through the afternoon. Generally
onshore winds and low seas will continue today and into the week.
Winds may reach Caution flag conditions (15-20 knots) at times,
especially on Wednesday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 94 73 93 72 / 20 20 40 10
Houston (IAH) 91 73 92 72 / 30 10 50 40
Galveston (GLS) 87 79 88 77 / 40 20 50 40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION.....41
MARINE.......05

[Cromagnum]

Got my yard treated with AZProp to stop the initial and future fungus in its tracks. Pre-emergent too to stop cool season weeds from germinating. Also sprayed with Bifen to combat the mosquitoes and nuke the fire ants trying to come over from my neighbors.

[dp6]

I just want to hurry up and get the next 2 weeks past us. Traditional/old wives tale is that Houston's risk for major hurricanes basically ends after mid-September. I don't know the exact reasons, "The cool fronts start to make it through" is the claim I usually heard the most. A quick search for Houston hurricanes seems to support this urban myth. Yeah, Rita was Sept. 24, but it hit further east Beaumont, not Houston. Their major season is longer.

Counterpoint: This isn't at all a typical hurricane season, so....

[Cromagnum]

We have dealt with hurricanes on the Texas coast up to mid-October, though certainly many more hit in September.

[Stratton20]

As I say this quiet hurricane season means nothing, only takes one to be a bad season for someone, and I fully expect the GOM to have at least a couple of threats through the month, ensembles are sniffing something out in the BOC next week

[Pas_Bon]

I just want to hurry up and get the next 2 weeks past us. Traditional/old wives tale is that Houston's risk for major hurricanes basically ends after mid-September. I don't know the exact reasons, "The cool fronts start to make it through" is the claim I usually heard the most. A quick search for Houston hurricanes seems to support this urban myth. Yeah, Rita was Sept. 24, but it hit further east Beaumont, not Houston. Their major season is longer.

Counterpoint: This isn't at all a typical hurricane season, so....

Rita was in 2005, and frankly, anything in 2005 deserves an asterisk. It's true that the threat to our area decreases markedly after the ides of September, but, alas, Louisiana has also been hit with strong hurricanes in October before (Lili in 2002 comes to mind, as well as a few others in recent years).
Still need to be on guard.

[DoctorMu]

More seasonable weather ahead this week.

Watchful eye on the tropics just in case.

[tireman4]

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022

Outflow boundary from earlier coastal storms pushing into the
metro. Its moving into drier air, so although a brief moderate
shower might be a possibility...impacts should be fairly marginal.
Winds will shift to the south in its wake. Otherwise, looking for
a fairly quiet afternoon with VFR conditions and light winds
prevailing. Maybe a very isolated shower here and there, but
insignificant for the most part. Mclear to pcldy overnight with
spotty ground fog similar to last night. Wed afternoon could get
interesting as an upper level disturbance currently in the Midwest
tracks southward into the region toward peak heating and trigger
some scattered tstms across the region. Have added some late
afternoon VCTS`s in for the extended IAH TAF for now. 47

&&

[DoctorMu]

The best chance of rain is probably tomorrow pm along the trough.

Then drier leading to the weekend. Seasonable temperatures and slightly cooler nights.


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
343 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022

Isolated to scattered late afternoon & early evening precip will
dissipate with the loss of heating. Otherwise a fairly comfortable
night in store.

Wednesday afternoon could get somewhat interesting. Shortwave seen
on water vapor imagery over Missouri will continue diving ssw down
the backside of the upper trof axis. It should be making its way
into northern parts of southeast Texas during peak heating and
expect it to trigger some scattered showers and thunderstorms across
the region into early evening. There are some varying model
solutions out there regarding overall coverage and intensity. Some
model forecast soundings do show signs of inverted-v signatures, so
cannot rule out some strong winds or isolated downbursts should we
see any stronger cells develop. 47


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022

The long term guidance has trended drier as a cut off low forms
east of our area in the Gulf. This puts Southeast Texas in a dry
N-NE flow and continuous NVA in the mid levels. This cut off low
will remain to our east through late Saturday until it gets swept
up in the next trough sweeping through the Northern Central plains
and Midwest.

Regarding rain chances in the long term, Thursday appears to have
the "best" chances with 20-40% PoPs near the coast in the morning
through early afternoon. This is mainly from any residual coastal
trough/front offshore interacting with the land breeze during the
morning and enhancing rain chances before the land breeze mixes
out and dry air mixes in. For Friday, PoPs drastically decrease
and struggle to reach near 20% with best chances east of I-45 and
along the coast where the best low level moisture for sea-breeze
driven convection is expected to occur. By Saturday, the cutoff
low retrogrades to the west a little bit, enhancing rain chances
slightly along our eastern coastal zones to near 30% in the
afternoon where some weak PVA and low level moisture could sneak
through. Afterwards on Sunday, high pressure quickly fills in
across Southeast Texas before a weak front tries to push its way
through Texas and towards the coast next Monday.

Temperatures will be fairly persistent, with highs in the low 90s
for most inland locations and upper 80s near the coast. Clear
skies overnight will help us cool down efficiently, so overnight
lows could reach the upper 60s for our northernmost counties, the
low 70s across central counties, and mid 70s near the coast. The
noticeable difference will be lower dewpoints in the mid 60s to
low 70s, helping the air feel less "soupy" and relatively more
mild.

Walts

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 070913
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
413 AM CDT Wed Sep 7 2022

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Wed Sep 7 2022

Activity over the Gulf waters are starting to blossom this morning
as the activity north of the CWA is also starting up. The forecast
issue for today looks to focus on the development up north and its
association with the pesky mid/upper low that is progged to slowly
drift south and close as it reaches the TX/LA coast. Dynamics with
this system (along with a shortwave rotating around it) and an in-
creasingly favorable jet pattern aloft should support scattered to
possibly numerous showers/thunderstorms over parts of the CWA des-
pite the lower PWs (1.4-1.5"). Not expecting any severe storms but
locally heavy rainfall will be possible this afternoon.

Coverage should decrease by this evening, but given the forecasted
proximity of the main upper low, isolated development could linger
through the overnight hours. But for tomorrow, rain chances should
be a bit lower as this system slowly tracks a little further east.
In the wake of this system, a deepening N/NE flow from the lower to
upper levels could help to dry/cool the SE TX air mass by tomorrow
night by a few degrees. Lows tonight are going to be mostly in the
lower 70s...to the upper 60s to around 70 tomorrow night. At/along
the immediate coast, lows will be in the mid to upper 70s. Daytime
highs today will continue to run in the lower to mid 90s over much
of the northern CWA...upper 80s south. For tomorrow, lower 90s for
inland areas...upper 80s near the coast. 41

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Wed Sep 7 2022

By Friday, the upper-level low will be meandering over the
Louisiana coast, bringing dry northerly flow into the region.
Latest guidance suggests even drier solutions with only slight
chances in the afternoon associated with weak seabreeze/low-level
convergence. The cut-off low wobbles over the Lower MS Valley
during the weekend. Some mid-lvl shortwaves will move close to our
region, bringing enough forcing to develop an isolated
shower/storm or two across our far eastern counties on Saturday.
The cut-off low finally weakens by Sunday ahead of a strengthening
upper-lvl low over the Great Lakes/Middle MS Valley regions. This
low will drag a cool front southward across the Plains Sunday
into Monday. While there is still some differences in
timing/strength with the FROPA, general consensus bring it by
early Monday. Not much is anticipated with the passage of this
frontal boundary, other than a few showers/storms (mainly south of
I-10) and a wind shift. Behind the front, drier air filters in as
a sfc high builds over the Plains. This FROPA will not bring a
significant change in temperatures; however, it`ll feel less muggy
as sfc dewpoints drop into the 60s to low 70s degF range. In
terms of temperatures, a gradual warming trend is expected through
the long-term period with highs climbing from the upper 80s to
low 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Wed Sep 7 2022

VFR this morning and early afternoon should give way to increasing
rain chances later this afternoon and evening. Will continue carry-
ing VCTS for most inland terminals today but may tweak start times
to an hour or two earlier (as per trends of the activity moving in
from the N/NE). Isolated development could linger through tonight/
overnight but will likely not add any mention of VCSH for now. Low-
er rain chances tomorrow as winds become more NE/E but still light
(3-7kts). 41

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 359 AM CDT Wed Sep 7 2022

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to
develop over the coastal waters early this morning. This activity
is expected to continue through the morning hours as an upper-
level disturbance moves over the region. Erratic/gusty winds and
lightning can be expected with any stronger storms. Similar
weather pattern will be possible on Thursday with showers and
thunderstorms mainly in the morning. Rain and storm chances will
be on the decrease towards the weekend and into the upcoming week
as weak frontal boundary moves through and a high pressure settles
in. Light and variable winds and low seas will continue through
early next week. Weak flow will allow for onshore winds in the
afternoon and evenings and offshore winds during the overnight and
morning hours thanks to the land/sea breeze circulation.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 93 72 91 70 / 30 20 20 10
Houston (IAH) 93 73 90 72 / 50 30 30 10
Galveston (GLS) 89 77 87 77 / 30 30 40 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...41

[Stratton20]

The weather pattern looks very boring over the next few weeks, I suspect this board will be quiet as a mouse

[jasons2k]

Hot off the presses from Jeff.
This is why I was complaining even though I saw some drought relief, not nearly as much as my neighbors, or IAH, or as much as I needed for sustained relief. Every drop matters in a La Nina year!! Maybe we'll get something today to help us out - prefer to not have it hail though.

Strong or isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening across the region.

A strong upper level disturbance moving southward over NW LA and NE TX currently is producing a cluster of strong thunderstorms over NE TX. Air mass south of this activity is heating and with surface temperatures increasing into the low to mid 90’s by early to mid afternoon, high instability will be in place to support this activity SW into SE TX. Expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop and push SW across the area being helped with lift from the disturbance aloft. Main hazards will be frequent lightning, gusty winds, and very heavy rainfall. Soundings do show some modestly dry sub cloud layers and this could help support gusty wind or downbursts. Activity may linger in an isolated fashion into the late night hours as energy aloft moves over the area.

Overall pattern change aloft will develop into the weekend and next week with flat upper level ridge of high pressure building from the western US into the southern plains. This will effectively end the ongoing wet pattern of late and reduce rain chances into the 20% or less category from Friday onward into next week.

A weak frontal boundary may approach the region late this weekend and help to usher in an even drier air mass. Low temperatures early next week may fall well into the 60’s east of I-45 and north of I-10 and near 70 over much of the area as dewpoints fall into the 60’s with dry northerly flow at the surface and aloft.

August ended with 8.58 inches of rainfall at BUSH IAH which is the wettest month we have had since January 2022 (9.42 inches). In fact we had more rain in August than for the months of April-July (7.77. inches).

Drought condition have seen a dramatic improvement over much of the area over the last 30 days with a complete removal of the exceptional drought levels west of the Brazos River and significant improvements over Liberty, Harris, Montgomery, San Jacinto, and Walker Counties. While significant improvements have occurred, drought still remains over much of the state and rainfall forecasts over the next week are low with a fairly dry pattern in place.