September 2022

[Iceresistance]

Since we have not had any significate Storm in the Gulf this summer, Those waters are boiling. if this gets into the Gulf, Whoever gets this storm may be dealing with a monster.

Other than PTC 4 that tried to become Danielle and Bonnie in July for the Caribbean, not much has occurred. It's a ticking time bomb waiting to explode.

On S2K earlier this month, I've predicted that the 'big one' will develop in the Caribbean or the GoM because of the mostly untapped waters sometime between Late September into October.

[davidiowx]

Correct, the front made it after Ike. I remember not having power for over two weeks and that cool front really helped cool things down.

It was like the next day I believe.

Yep, I remember that quite well. It definitely helped ease the heat the first couple days after landfall. I didn’t have power for 2 weeks and by the time it came back on, I was pretty much adjusted to 88 in the house lol.

[Cpv17]

Correct, the front made it after Ike. I remember not having power for over two weeks and that cool front really helped cool things down.

It was like the next day I believe.

Yep, I remember that quite well. It definitely helped ease the heat the first couple days after landfall. I didn’t have power for 2 weeks and by the time it came back on, I was pretty much adjusted to 88 in the house lol.

I got absolutely nothing from Ike other than a few clouds and 30mph gusts and you’re not that far from me. Crazy what just about 40 miles can make.

[Stratton20]

My whole backyard fence was gone along with someone trampoline that completely wrecked our deck, wasnt a pleasant experience from IKE

[davidiowx]

It was like the next day I believe.

Yep, I remember that quite well. It definitely helped ease the heat the first couple days after landfall. I didn’t have power for 2 weeks and by the time it came back on, I was pretty much adjusted to 88 in the house lol.

I got absolutely nothing from Ike other than a few clouds and 30mph gusts and you’re not that far from me. Crazy what just about 40 miles can make.

I was in the Med Center when Ike came through, about 3 miles east of Reliant Stadium. I got to experience the edge of the eye wall when it got calm. The change of wind direction was what really started tearing things up. It was insane. Wish I lived out here when Ike hit cause that was no fun at all!

[Iceresistance]

I reached 99°F today.

[srainhoutx]

I reached 99°F today.

I had a high of 76 today. Expecting upper 30’s Friday morning.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I reached 99°F today.

I had a high of 76 today. Expecting upper 30’s Friday morning.

Swoon.

[davidiowx]

I reached 99°F today.

I had a high of 76 today. Expecting upper 30’s Friday morning.

Rub it in why don’t ya!

[Scott747]

Lack of organization could allow 98l to get a little further w into the Caribbean. But for now there is fairly good consensus on the trough picking it up before moving any further w once it nears the gulf.

18z had the trough dig a little deeper but it wasn't as strong and eroded a little quicker but still enough of weakness to draw 98l north. Would need to see something like the 12z on Monday to cause even the slightest concern.

[DoctorMu]

I reached 99°F today.

I had a high of 76 today. Expecting upper 30’s Friday morning.

Rub it in why don’t ya!

The NC mountains in the Fall. Wait until the leaves change color. Last year was fantastic. I was there are the beginning of November in the NC piedmont.

Unbelievable.

[DoctorMu]

98L feels like a GoM storm to me. There will be weakness in the ridge.

Where in the Gulf is anybody's guess this far out.

[Scott747]

Lack of organization could allow 98l to get a little further w into the Caribbean. But for now there is fairly good consensus on the trough picking it up before moving any further w once it nears the gulf.

18z had the trough dig a little deeper but it wasn't as strong and eroded a little quicker but still enough of weakness to draw 98l north. Would need to see something like the 12z on Monday to cause even the slightest concern.

So the 0z GFS looked a little like the 12z from Monday except with a stronger trough that captures it quicker and doesn't allow it to get further w. Not particularly enough of a change to cause a concern but worth keeping an eye on subsequent runs. There still isn't anything to push it further w as say central la.

Euro usually leads the way on any significant upper level changes...

[Stratton20]

Scott747 the only real shift I saw on that GFS run was a little to the left of cuba, now shoots the yucatan channel, but definitely not enough for a big shift west

[DoctorMu]

If anything the 0zGFS is slightly west of 18z.

0z CMC has 98L bearing down on NOLA.

[sambucol]

If anything the 0zGFS is slightly west of 18z.

0z CMC has 98L bearing down on NOLA.

It sure is.

[tireman4]

Back home...

000
FXUS64 KHGX 211120
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
620 AM CDT Wed Sep 21 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Wed Sep 21 2022

Unseasonably hot weather is set to continue today as a mid to upper
level ridge lingers over Texas. This ridge will induce robust
subsidence across the region with model soundings depicting
subsidence inversions near 700mb and 850mb. Paring this with PWATS
generally at or below 1.2" will allow for clear skies during the
day, with rain chances slim to none. Should any showers develop,
they will be limited to the near coast, remaining very isolated in
nature. Highs will be in the mid to upper 90s inland with a few
isolated locations threatening to break triple digits. Along the
coast, highs will be in the mid to lower 90s.

Thursday will see a slight westward shift in the mid to upper level
ridge with weak shortwave energy rounding its bottom. This shortwave
energy will weaken the subsidence inversion, which should improve
afternoon mixing. PWATS peak near 1.5-1.6" at times, though
conditions largely remain too dry and subsident for any substantial
convective development during the day, with skies remaining mostly
clear. 850mb temperatures will increase to around 19-21C on
Thursday. Dewpoints should mix out more efficiently than the
previous day, bringing drier conditions at the surface during the
afternoon hours. The culmination of these factors will bring hotter
conditions on Thursday with highs in the mid 90s to lower 100s
across the region. These temperatures are poised to meet or
potentially even exceed record high temperatures for September 22.

03

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Wed Sep 21 2022

Near record breaking heat is still in the forecast for Thursday
through Saturday as the area remains under the influence of
mid/upper level ridging. Still looking for high temperatures in the
upper 90s to around 100 to the north through west of the I-59/69
corridor and in the low to mid 90s closer to the coast. The ridge
begins to break down on Saturday resulting in slightly lower
afternoon highs, but the anticipated values in the mid to upper 90s
inland and even around 90 at the coast will still be close to
records for that day. A building ridge out west and a trough out
east will help to bring a cold front into and through the area on
Monday. Before the front`s arrival, Sunday will be another warm day
(highs ranging from around 90 at the coast to the mid/upper 90s
inland). After the front`s passage on Monday (still anticipating
highs ranging from around 90 at the coast to the mid 90s inland
along with low shower and thunderstorm chances mainly near and to
the south of the I-10 corridor), expect a notable change come
Tuesday and Wednesday as a drier airmass (dew points in the 40s/50s)
filters into the area. If all goes right, low temperatures on
Wednesday night will be in the low to mid 60s for much of the inland
areas with even an upper 50 not out of the question around and to
the north of the Huntsville area.

42

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 555 AM CDT Wed Sep 21 2022

Patchy fog has developed across portions of SE Texas early this
morning, bringing IFR to VLIFR visibility at KLBX. This patchy fog
may also bring VFR to MVFR visibility at KCXO and KSGR during
early morning. All fog should burn off shortly after sunrise as VFR
conditions return across the region. Light to moderate
southeasterly winds will develop during the afternoon, later
becoming light and variable again in the evening.

03


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 317 AM CDT Wed Sep 21 2022

With high pressure in control, mainly light and variable winds along
with low seas and dry weather can be expected through the period.
The next best chance of rain does not arrive until Monday when a
cold front moves across the area.

42

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 301 PM CDT Tue Sep 20 2022

Here are the record high temperatures for Thursday, Friday and
Saturday:

CLL: Thu - 102 set in 2005
Fri - 101 set in 1893
Sat - 101 set in 1892

IAH: Thu - 100 set in 2005
Fri - 96 set in 1993
Sat - 95 set in 2013

HOU: Thu - 99 set in 2005
Fri - 96 set in 2005
Sat - 94 set in 2013

GLS: Thu - 95 set in 2005
Fri - 93 set in 1998
Sat - 90 set in 2017

PSX: Thu - 100 set in 2005
Fri - 98 set in 2005
Sat - 100 set in 2005

Evans

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 97 72 100 75 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 96 74 99 77 / 0 0 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 92 80 95 82 / 0 0 0 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...03
MARINE...42

[don]

While i cant say we're out of the woods yet. The chances of a landfall are very low here.Not really just because of climatology,but more so because of the persistent trough/weakness that's been over the east coast/SE this summer.Now if the season would have been active last month when we had a weakness siting over us that would have been a different story.But that weakness has now been replaced by a ridge.And the westerly's look to be in play as a weak front moves through next week.It will be hard to get a storm here for the rest of the season. The only exception to that would be a homebrew system that develops offshore from a front.

[Stratton20]

If anything 98L is going to make it hotter here, that front looks mediocre and unimpressive to say the least, Ill believe a legit front when I see it

[Scott747]

6z Euro had a small shift w on the mid range. The disturbance is still quite far s and essentially beginning to crash into SA before it's supposed to begin lifting wnw, so I think there will continue to be subtle adjustments w through the Caribbean. However, we're getting into a window that there would need to start being a dramatic shift with the trough for any major deviations further w in the gulf, and as it stands currently the eastern part of the Gulf is the most at risk.