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FXUS64 KHGX 211120
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
620 AM CDT Wed Sep 21 2022
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Wed Sep 21 2022
Unseasonably hot weather is set to continue today as a mid to upper
level ridge lingers over Texas. This ridge will induce robust
subsidence across the region with model soundings depicting
subsidence inversions near 700mb and 850mb. Paring this with PWATS
generally at or below 1.2" will allow for clear skies during the
day, with rain chances slim to none. Should any showers develop,
they will be limited to the near coast, remaining very isolated in
nature. Highs will be in the mid to upper 90s inland with a few
isolated locations threatening to break triple digits. Along the
coast, highs will be in the mid to lower 90s.
Thursday will see a slight westward shift in the mid to upper level
ridge with weak shortwave energy rounding its bottom. This shortwave
energy will weaken the subsidence inversion, which should improve
afternoon mixing. PWATS peak near 1.5-1.6" at times, though
conditions largely remain too dry and subsident for any substantial
convective development during the day, with skies remaining mostly
clear. 850mb temperatures will increase to around 19-21C on
Thursday. Dewpoints should mix out more efficiently than the
previous day, bringing drier conditions at the surface during the
afternoon hours. The culmination of these factors will bring hotter
conditions on Thursday with highs in the mid 90s to lower 100s
across the region. These temperatures are poised to meet or
potentially even exceed record high temperatures for September 22.
03
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Wed Sep 21 2022
Near record breaking heat is still in the forecast for Thursday
through Saturday as the area remains under the influence of
mid/upper level ridging. Still looking for high temperatures in the
upper 90s to around 100 to the north through west of the I-59/69
corridor and in the low to mid 90s closer to the coast. The ridge
begins to break down on Saturday resulting in slightly lower
afternoon highs, but the anticipated values in the mid to upper 90s
inland and even around 90 at the coast will still be close to
records for that day. A building ridge out west and a trough out
east will help to bring a cold front into and through the area on
Monday. Before the front`s arrival, Sunday will be another warm day
(highs ranging from around 90 at the coast to the mid/upper 90s
inland). After the front`s passage on Monday (still anticipating
highs ranging from around 90 at the coast to the mid 90s inland
along with low shower and thunderstorm chances mainly near and to
the south of the I-10 corridor), expect a notable change come
Tuesday and Wednesday as a drier airmass (dew points in the 40s/50s)
filters into the area. If all goes right, low temperatures on
Wednesday night will be in the low to mid 60s for much of the inland
areas with even an upper 50 not out of the question around and to
the north of the Huntsville area.
42
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 555 AM CDT Wed Sep 21 2022
Patchy fog has developed across portions of SE Texas early this
morning, bringing IFR to VLIFR visibility at KLBX. This patchy fog
may also bring VFR to MVFR visibility at KCXO and KSGR during
early morning. All fog should burn off shortly after sunrise as VFR
conditions return across the region. Light to moderate
southeasterly winds will develop during the afternoon, later
becoming light and variable again in the evening.
03
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 317 AM CDT Wed Sep 21 2022
With high pressure in control, mainly light and variable winds along
with low seas and dry weather can be expected through the period.
The next best chance of rain does not arrive until Monday when a
cold front moves across the area.
42
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 301 PM CDT Tue Sep 20 2022
Here are the record high temperatures for Thursday, Friday and
Saturday:
CLL: Thu - 102 set in 2005
Fri - 101 set in 1893
Sat - 101 set in 1892
IAH: Thu - 100 set in 2005
Fri - 96 set in 1993
Sat - 95 set in 2013
HOU: Thu - 99 set in 2005
Fri - 96 set in 2005
Sat - 94 set in 2013
GLS: Thu - 95 set in 2005
Fri - 93 set in 1998
Sat - 90 set in 2017
PSX: Thu - 100 set in 2005
Fri - 98 set in 2005
Sat - 100 set in 2005
Evans
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 97 72 100 75 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 96 74 99 77 / 0 0 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 92 80 95 82 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...03
MARINE...42