September 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Stratton20
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GFS is already correcting east, not our problem, now back to more miserable heat until this so called fall” front comes”
walsean1
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Stratton20 wrote: Thu Sep 22, 2022 11:28 am GFS is already correcting east, not our problem, now back to more miserable heat until this so called fall” front comes”
Currently there is no storm so the models are forecasting something that hasn’t formed regardless of them shifting it W or E
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don
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To repeat what i said yesterday, the trough on the east coast is too deep for 98L to come this way.Something homebrew would have to develop for us to see any risk of a TC for the rest of the season.And that's not likely to happen. ;)
While i cant say we're out of the woods yet. The chances of a landfall are very low here.Not really just because of climatology,but more so because of the persistent trough/weakness that's been over the east coast/SE this summer.Now if the season would have been active last month when we had a weakness siting over us that would have been a different story.But that weakness has now been replaced by a ridge.And the westerly's look to be in play as a weak front moves through next week.It will be hard to get a storm here for the rest of the season. The only exception to that would be a homebrew system that develops offshore from a front.
Stratton20
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Anyone else want to cancel their subscription to mother nature?🤬🤬🤬🤣🤣
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Cpv17
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Next hurricane season could be dealing with an El Niño so next season could be quiet too. Although this season is a La Niña and it’s been strangely quiet till just recently. This could end up being a backloaded season which is great news for Texas. I’m just ready for some more rain and unfortunately don’t see any hope for it the next couple weeks at least. Grass is withering up once again.
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tireman4
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AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Sep 22 2022

VFR conditions will prevail. High pressure overhead will keep
rain chances near zero through the forecast. Patchy fog possible
again tonight and through the early morning hours on Friday for
our southwestern sites (LBX, PSX, SGR, etc.), but should not be as
widespread as we saw this morning.
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tireman4
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From Wxman 57 on S2K

I still don't think that the shear will drop off enough for consolidation until Saturday. Lots of questions regarding potential intensity when it enters the Gulf. The Gulf hasn't been that favorable for development all summer. Models, particularly the Euro, indicate shear and dry air could be an issue in the Gulf. For now, if I lived anywhere in Florida, I'd make sure I have supplies to sustain my family for a week. Focus may be more on the peninsula than the panhandle. If you wait until the NHC issues a forecast, then it's too late. All supplies will be gone.
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tireman4
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From Wxman 57 on S2K

Busy finishing up 7-day track on 98L. If I were you, I'd be ready for a hurricane strike Tuesday ( He is talking about Florida). I think the Euro may have the right idea. It may be a little TOO far south, but I think a sharper turn is coming past Cuba. GFS continues on crack, ignoring wind flow across the Gulf. Don't trust it. Time to send advisory out. One more check of new TVCN. Note that the TVCN (consensus) is too far west due to GFS members being out to lunch (most likely).
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DoctorMu
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walsean1 wrote: Thu Sep 22, 2022 11:33 am
Stratton20 wrote: Thu Sep 22, 2022 11:28 am GFS is already correcting east, not our problem, now back to more miserable heat until this so called fall” front comes”
Currently there is no storm so the models are forecasting something that hasn’t formed regardless of them shifting it W or E
Correct. Guessing on fantasy range projected ridge location.

Having said that I think Florida is most likely. I'm OK with that. That would keep Hermine away from O&G refineries, which if damaged would spike more inflation. That's also far enough away not to make our late, late summer heat more intense.
redneckweather
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Yep, she gone and looking forward to a taste of the 'changing of the seasons' to start off next week!


Otherwise, a cold front is still slated for Mon. Rain chances will
likely remain quite limited with FROPA as moisture return is going
to be quite limited. Progs of slightly more elevated PWs appear to
be better to our SW. Look for significantly lower dewpoints behind
the front and more fall-like overnight low temperatures (50 to 60s
inland and 60s coast) Mon night into middle of next week.
Stratton20
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Lol ill believe that front when i see it
Iceresistance
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Stratton20 wrote: Thu Sep 22, 2022 6:42 pm Lol ill believe that front when i see it
I had one that blew through me this morning! It felt NICE! :D
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DoctorMu
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tireman4 wrote: Thu Sep 22, 2022 9:22 am
Cromagnum wrote: Thu Sep 22, 2022 9:20 am
redneckweather wrote: Thu Sep 22, 2022 8:41 am

Maybe he will get this one right. I sure do like him during the winter season though when he shuts down all the snow talk when it appears in the models. It's easier to be right in those situations because it just doesn't snow down here. lol
Well, that...and he absolutely hates the cold.

Well, knowing him personally ( like many folks on here), he does hate the cold. He is amenable to if it is snows, but he thinks it is a waste of cold without it. LOL
CLL gets snow nearly every year now. :lol:
Pas_Bon
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Stratton20 wrote: Thu Sep 22, 2022 6:42 pm Lol ill believe that front when i see it


And just like that, my 10-day forecast in League City went from
Showing highs in the low 80’s back up to near 90 each day . Dang it.

Geaux Tigers
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 231049
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
549 AM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022

Heat will continue to be the area`s weather story for today and Saturday.
Today will probably be the warmest of the two days as mid/upper level
ridging remains in control. With plenty of sunshine, expect afternoon
highs to peak in the upper 90s to around 100 inland and in the low to
mid 90s near/along the coast which are around 5 to 10 degrees above
normal for this time of the year. The ridge begins to break down on
Saturday, and this could allow for some cloud development during the
day which would help to shave a couple degrees off the afternoon highs
(mid to upper 90s inland and closer to the lower 90s near/along the
coast). Similar to yesterday, we should be able to tie or break some
of our record high temperatures for both days (see Climate Section below).
Cannot rule out some very isolated shower/thunderstorm development on
Saturday (mainly in/around the Matagorda Bay area and southward) as
the ridge weakens and an inverted trough edges westward across the
Deep South Texas area. 42

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday Night)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022

On Sunday, an upper level trof will settle in over the Great Lakes
Region while an upper level ridge builds over Western CONUS. While
conditions remain relatively dry, peak PWATS around 1.6-1.9" could
allow for a few isolated driven showers and storms to develop along
the coast, particularly near the Matagorda Bay area where. 850mb
temperatures will be around 19-20C, bringing another day of near-
record highs in mid to upper 90s inland and mid to lower 90s along
the coast.

Heading into Monday, the aforementioned upper level trough will
dig in across the Great Lakes/Lower Great Lakes. As it does, a
weak cold front will enter SE Texas, bringing light to moderate
N/NE winds as it pushes south towards the coast. The frontal
passage will be fairly dry, with rain chances still remaining
isolated to the coastline where moisture is highest. High pressure
will build in behind the front as the upper level ridge over the
Western CONUS amplifies. Persistent N/NE winds left in the wake of
the front will allow for cooler, drier, more fall-esq weather to
set in next week, with lows dropping into the 60s inland and lower
70s near the coast.

As for the tropics, we are monitoring Tropical Depression Nine
over the Southeastern Carribean. Low wind shear and SSTs near 30C
over portions of the Carribean should provide favorable conditions
for TD 9 to continue to develop. TD 9 is expected to enter the
Western Carribean next week with the GFS and EURO Ensembles Tracks
hinting at it turning NE towards the NE Gulf/Florida by mid next
week. That being said, much uncertainty still remains with TD 9,
so be sure to review your hurricane preparation plans.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 549 AM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022

After any patchy morning fog dissipates, VFR for the rest of the day
and on into the evening hours with light winds in the morning becoming
SE at 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. We`ll go back to light winds
again late tonight through tomorrow morning (maybe some patchy fog
again) and mainly SKC. Look for a repeat tomorrow (VFR with light
winds in the morning becoming SE at 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon).

42

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 337 AM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022

Light seabreeze/landbreeze driven winds will prevail through the
rest of the week and into the weekend with seas of 1 to 2 feet. A
weak cold front will arrive on Monday, bringing light to moderate
offshore winds as it pushes off the coast. N/NE winds will continue
in the wake of the front with winds increasing by mid next week as
the pressure gradient tightens. Cautions flags may be needed on
Tuesday for building winds and seas.

03

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 337 AM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022

Here are the record high temperatures for today through Sunday.

CLL: Today - 101 set in 1893
Sat - 101 set in 1892
Sun - 104 set in 2005

IAH: Today - 96 set in 1993
Sat - 95 set in 2013
Sun - 99 set in 2005

HOU: Today - 96 set in 2005
Sat - 94 set in 2013
Sun - 97 set in 2005

GLS: Today - 93 set in 1998
Sat - 90 set in 2017
Sun - 101 set in 2005

PSX: Today - 98 set in 2005
Sat - 100 set in 2005
Sun - 95 set in 1954

42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 99 72 97 71 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 98 75 97 74 / 10 10 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 93 81 92 80 / 0 10 10 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$
redneckweather
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Looking forward to it!

Persistent N/NE winds left in the wake of
the front will allow for cooler, drier, more fall-esq weather to
set in next week
.
Stratton20
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NWS has highs near 90-91 after that frontal passage, not a legit front lol
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Fri Sep 23, 2022 12:31 pm NWS has highs near 90-91 after that frontal passage, not a legit front lol
Yeah but morning lows will be nice and the humidity will be gone. It’ll be a big difference. A lot less sweating.
Stratton20
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Cpv17 I hope so! The main story has just been sweltering heat the pst 4-5 months so it would be nice to have a couple of cool, crisp mornings for a change, cannot wait till we are done with the 90’s!
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srainhoutx
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We got a good front yesterday here in the Smoky Mountains and are expecting a stronger front Sunday evening. Our low temperatures are expected to be in the 30's with high temperatures only reaching the low 60's. I suspect you folks will enjoy the lower dewpoints, particularly in the evenings/early mornings.
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