September 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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tireman4
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AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022

No issues for the rest of today/tonight/tomorrow morning with high
pressure remaining large and in charge. Light NE winds (5-7kts) in
place currently will gradually turn to the SE later this afternoon
(7-10kt). Very light and variable winds overnight (0-3kts) will be
transitioning to S/SE winds by tomorrow morning/early afternoon (5
-7kts). Otherwise VFR. 41
Cpv17
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Very ugly forecast from the CPC today. Above average temps and below average precipitation for the next 3-4 weeks. Trash.
Stratton20
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Yep, 2022 is a terrible year for weather, facts as well, Texas weather sucks!
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snowman65
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Lets all jut move north!!
Iceresistance
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This might not be Texas, but it's important because Michigan got down to the 20s this morning, that is one month ahead of the first average freeze.

And parts of Vermont got snow.
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DoctorMu
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srainhoutx wrote: Fri Sep 23, 2022 1:05 pm We got a good front yesterday here in the Smoky Mountains and are expecting a stronger front Sunday evening. Our low temperatures are expected to be in the 30's with high temperatures only reaching the low 60's. I suspect you folks will enjoy the lower dewpoints, particularly in the evenings/early mornings.
We'll take the lower DPs if it's not going to bother raining. 30s is a bit chilly for late Sept in the Smokies.
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don
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Iceresistance wrote: Fri Sep 23, 2022 5:38 pm This might not be Texas, but it's important because Michigan got down to the 20s this morning, that is one month ahead of the first average freeze.

And parts of Vermont got snow.
It being cold up there doesn't really correlate to fall or winter weather down here.They can have record breaking cold temps and snow galore up there.But if the trough doesn't dig far enough south all that cold air stay bottled up to the north,while we scorch down here at the same time.Which we have seen happen several times the last few winters. ;)
Stratton20
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Knowing our luck i bet this winter is going to be warm lol
davidiowx
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don wrote: Sat Sep 24, 2022 12:57 pm
Iceresistance wrote: Fri Sep 23, 2022 5:38 pm This might not be Texas, but it's important because Michigan got down to the 20s this morning, that is one month ahead of the first average freeze.

And parts of Vermont got snow.
It being cold up there doesn't really correlate to fall or winter weather down here.They can have record breaking cold temps and snow galore up there.But if the trough doesn't dig far enough south all that cold air stay bottled up to the north,while we scorch down here at the same time.Which we have seen happen several times the last few winters. ;)
Yep! About the only time it really matters is when the front makes it offshore and cold air is running over ice/snow pack in the plains. It which enhances cold air advection further south where the grounds are well above freezing. Typically when there’s a tiny window for some frozen precip down here that can help a little if the dry air doesn’t take over first.
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don
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davidiowx wrote: Sat Sep 24, 2022 2:01 pm
don wrote: Sat Sep 24, 2022 12:57 pm
Iceresistance wrote: Fri Sep 23, 2022 5:38 pm This might not be Texas, but it's important because Michigan got down to the 20s this morning, that is one month ahead of the first average freeze.

And parts of Vermont got snow.
It being cold up there doesn't really correlate to fall or winter weather down here.They can have record breaking cold temps and snow galore up there.But if the trough doesn't dig far enough south all that cold air stay bottled up to the north,while we scorch down here at the same time.Which we have seen happen several times the last few winters. ;)
Yep! About the only time it really matters is when the front makes it offshore and cold air is running over ice/snow pack in the plains. It which enhances cold air advection further south where the grounds are well above freezing. Typically when there’s a tiny window for some frozen precip down here that can help a little if the dry air doesn’t take over first.
Yep I agree!
Cromagnum
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Nearly the end of September and I'm running the sprinkler around the yard to keep it from dieing. This sucks just about as bad as this Aggie football team.
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DoctorMu
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Cromagnum wrote: Sat Sep 24, 2022 2:42 pm Nearly the end of September and I'm running the sprinkler around the yard to keep it from dieing. This sucks just about as bad as this Aggie football team.
Better to be lucky than good, sometimes! :lol:

Needs some luck on this weather.

At least the lower DPs beginning Monday will make it feel better.
Cpv17
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Looks like Ian is going to weaken substantially as it approaches Florida. Maybe an EWRC? Weird to see a storm forecast to weaken that much in the Gulf in late September.
Cromagnum
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So ready for a change. Sweat my *** off mowing the yard today. Everything is dieing from heat stress. Here is hoping La Nina never returns.
Cpv17
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Cromagnum wrote: Sun Sep 25, 2022 2:27 pm So ready for a change. Sweat my *** off mowing the yard today. Everything is dieing from heat stress. Here is hoping La Nina never returns.
La Niña is supposed to strengthen over the next couple months. I honestly don’t see us getting any rain till the spring.
davidiowx
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Cpv17 wrote: Sun Sep 25, 2022 2:23 pm Looks like Ian is going to weaken substantially as it approaches Florida. Maybe an EWRC? Weird to see a storm forecast to weaken that much in the Gulf in late September.
Strong shear will do that.

Fortunately for us (well kinda - would love some rain), we are about to enjoy a week of no humidity and wonder fall mornings. It will warm up during the day with the sun beating down, but won’t be miserable with the humidity/dew points.

No rain in sight, so keep those sprinklers/hoses ready.
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 261132
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
632 AM CDT Mon Sep 26 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Mon Sep 26 2022

Latest surface observations at the time of forecast (3 AM CDT)
indicate the continued progression of a weak surface cold front
through SE TX, roughly extending along a Caldwell-Crockett-Lufkin
line. The passage of this boundary over the course of the day
today will be the major weather story in the immediate term,
bringing a noticeable influx of dry air to the region that should
persist throughout the duration of the work week. Latest short-
term guidance shows a steady drop in surface dew point values
behind the advancing front as N/NE winds develop in its wake,
with inland locations seeing values in the 40s and coastal
locations in the 50s by tonight. This represents a drop of around
20 degF compared to Sunday, and will certainly be apparent to
anyone with outdoor plans in the coming days. Clear skies and CAA
will furthermore produce more pleasant overnight lows, with inland
locations reaching the upper 50s/60s and coastal locations around
70. A few isolated showers and storms are possible along the
coast later today, particularly in the vicinity of Matagorda Bay,
but otherwise precipitation chances along the boundary remain low.

Tuesday will again be characterized by dry conditions, as north
winds persist behind today`s frontal passage. Daytime highs may
struggle to eclipse 90 degrees, while continued low dew point
values in the 40s will allow for a fairly pleasant and benign
weather day across the area. Overnight lows will once again dip
mainly into the upper 50s/60s.

Cady

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Mon Sep 26 2022

Dry weather along with cool night (lows in the 50s/60s) and warm
days (highs mainly in the mid 80s to low 90s) can be expected
throughout the long term period. In the wake of today`s weak cold
front, high pressure will be ridging into the state, and this
feature in combination with Hurricane Ian in the eastern Gulf of
Mexico will bring a dry northeast wind flow through the end of the
week and the start of the weekend. A more light and variable wind
pattern sets up for the Saturday afternoon through Monday night time
period.

42

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Mon Sep 26 2022

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the duration of the
TAF period. An advancing cold front will shift winds to the
northeast today across the area, with wind speeds reaching around
10 knots during the afternoon. Winds become light and variable
overnight, with little to no cloud cover expected. Light to moderate
northeast winds develop once again tomorrow.

Cady

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 258 AM CDT Mon Sep 26 2022

A weak cold front will push offshore today and will bring gradually
increasing north to northeast winds to the area. A tightening
pressure gradient between high pressure over the state and Hurricane
Ian in the eastern Gulf will bring increasing northeast winds,
increasing seas/swells and an increasing risk of rip currents to the
area mainly in a Tuesday through Friday time period. Caution and or
advisory flags will be needed. Mariners should keep up with the
latest forecasts on Ian being issued by the National Hurricane
Center.

42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 92 59 89 61 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 93 63 88 65 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 89 76 85 73 / 10 10 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
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djmike
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Bring it! Ready for this front. Been working a 7/12 turnaround at work so this front will be very welcoming.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
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snowman65
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What is Ian expected to be at landfall? Cat 2? 3?
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tireman4
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From Wxman 57 on S2K


One critical thing I notice is that timing will be critical for the Tampa Bay area. There may be a brief period on Thursday when Ian's forward speed slows to 4-5 mph. That occurs as Ian is about 30 miles offshore. If Ian moves more quickly, then it may move farther east, with landfall shifting just south of Tampa before the stall or slow-down. That's what the ICON is indicating. Those of you in Tampa want Ian to move more slowly so that it is blocked offshore and not allowed to move inland south of Tampa.

Checking recon, the plane found no hurricane force wind in the NW or SE quadrants.
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