September 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 5360
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

This could be just incredibly awful for Cape Coral…
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5648
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

jasons2k wrote: Tue Sep 27, 2022 10:43 pm This could be just incredibly awful for Cape Coral…
Right...and Ft. Myers Beach with that concave shape. Ian is going through another eyewall replacement. But it has plenty of time over bath water. The more southern path might protect Ian from some of the shear winds aloft.

The hurricane warnings now extend nearly all the way through the state to Daytona from Ft. Meyers. Holy ****!
Attachments
MAX_WEB_TROP_ATL2_ww1_1280x720.jpg
davidiowx
Posts: 1062
Joined: Thu Jan 23, 2014 2:39 pm
Location: Richmond, TX
Contact:

Cat 4 now. Prayers to those in the path
davidiowx
Posts: 1062
Joined: Thu Jan 23, 2014 2:39 pm
Location: Richmond, TX
Contact:

Wow recon finding support for Cat 5 status.
Cpv17
Posts: 5234
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

I’d say the Venice area will be ground zero for Ian.
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 4437
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

This will be bad, I have a feeling. Really bad. My in laws in Fort Lauderdale have not checked in, but I did check in with StormingB on S2K in Orlando. He is ok. My friend in Tampa is ok, for now.


Sam Richardson
@SamAV8R
Emergency managers likely receive this data from the NHC, so if this isn't an editorial comment, this could be an early confirmation that they've made the call to upgrade #Ian to a Category 5, given impressive data from recon and radar all morning.
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 4437
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

Back home....


000
FXUS64 KHGX 281131
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
631 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 415 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022

It`s a generally persistence forecast in the immediate term with the
synoptic pattern remaining relatively unchanged. Broad surface high
pressure remains in place over the Central CONUS, while the presence
of Hurricane Ian in the Eastern Gulf continues to result in a light
to moderate offshore flow pattern across SE TX. As a result, warm
and dry conditions remain the main story for the remainder of the
week and into the upcoming weekend. Clear skies overnight have
allowed for efficient radiative cooling, although with calm winds
and the resultant loss of CAA temperatures at the time of
publication have thus far only dipped into the upper 50s to lower
60s. Today, east to northeast winds will once again develop by late
morning, allowing for surface dew points to continue to fall into
the 40s/lower 50s. Highs once again will max out around 90.

Overnight, modifications to the synoptic pressure gradient as Ian
pushes further northward will allow for a more northerly orientation
of surface winds. The resultant CAA, combined with clear skies, will
see temps dropping a bit further, with many locations seeing lows in
the 50s. Similar conditions to today are expected on Thursday, with
highs in the upper 80s/lower 90s and dew points mostly in the 40s.

Cady

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 415 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022

Extended fcst remains virtually the same as the one I inherited &
primarily a temperature forecast. Mid level ridging to our west
and northeast flow in the lower levels will keep dry conditions
in place thru the period. Heading into early next week, we`ll
likely see a landbreeze/seabreeze circulation set up as the
gradient weakens. This would allow for subtle dewpoint modification
closer to the coast...but moisture availability remains too sparse
for precip. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 629 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022

VFR conditions will continue to prevail through the duration of
the TAF period. Skies will remain clear, with northeast winds
shifting eastward during the day and reaching around 10 knots.
Some higher gusts are possible at times. Winds become light and
variable overnight.

Cady

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 415 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022

Moderate northeast winds and elevated seas will continue for the
next couple days. Small Craft Advisory will remain in place for
the Gulf waters with some hires guidance suggesting winds might
increase a few more knots later this morning and meet the
criteria. Seas are currently sitting at 6` at buoy 42019 so it`ll
be bumpy regardless. A longer period east swell associated with
Hurricane Ian will begin arriving in the upper Texas coastal
waters this evening and overnight then begin diminishing late
Thursday into Friday.

Have also introduced a Beach Hazards Statement with this forecast package.
Water levels will peak between 3 and 3.3 feet MLLW for the next several
high tide cycles along Gulf facing shorelines. Though significant coastal
flooding is not anticipated, higher period swells arriving this evening
could cause higher than normal wave run up along area beaches and
possibly approach some of the lowest lying roads along the Bolivar
Peninsula, Blue Water Highway and Surfside around times of high
tide.

Surface high pressure will become established over the area this
weekend leading to lighter winds and lower seas. 47

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 415 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022

Dry airmass in place will allow for RH`s to bottom out in the
18-35% range for the next several days. Though wind speeds will be
well below Red Flag Warning criteria, caution is still advised
with any outdoor burning. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 91 58 89 56 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 89 62 86 59 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 86 68 83 69 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 4 PM CDT this
afternoon for GMZ330-335.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ350-
355.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ370-375.

&&

$$
Cromagnum
Posts: 2592
Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2011 10:42 pm
Contact:

The eye just cleared out again. It's semantics at this point whether it's Cat 4 or 5. That area of Florida is going to get leveled.
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 4437
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

From Wxman 57 on S2K..

Note that the NHC's 12-16 ft surge into Port Charlotte/Ft. Myers is for the BEACH. Surge up the Caloosahatchee river into Ft. Myers could be 20-24 ft. See the NHC's inundation graphic for the region. MANY areas under 9+ ft of water this afternoon. Far as I can tell, this will be the worst hurricane ever to strike the area. Charley in 2004 was strong, but tiny compared to Ian. Ian will be retired.
Cromagnum
Posts: 2592
Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2011 10:42 pm
Contact:

Just about as bad as it can get...

Image

Image
Post Reply
  • Information