November 2022

[Cromagnum]

Its pouring over here!The heavy rain is further inland than what most models were showing.

Yep. Either been way to my south or to my north. Just a misty mess. Wish the heavy stuff would set up over us for once.

[Iceresistance]

It snowed in my area! Twice!

On 11/11/2022, I got .4 inch, but most melted.

And now, I've gotten HUGE snowflakes!

[Stratton20]

Lucky!!!

[Cromagnum]

Finally cashed in on some much needed heavy rain.

[Stratton20]

The 18z GEFS is starkly different than its operational run, it srill has quite a few members that are bullish on the coastal low that could form friday/saturday, roughly 10/11 of the 21 members still have overrunning precip

[DoctorMu]

Steady light rain here with a high around 47, a good 4-6 degrees colder than what the models forecasted today

They cheated. The high today was 51°F at midnight.

[brazoriatx]

I dont know about yall but I'm loving this cold weather

[djmike]

1pm and it’s only 46 in Beaumont. High was forecasted to reach 55. I dont see that happening…

[Stratton20]

As usual the cold air is over performing, global models always underestimate it,

[sambucol]

We are really enjoying this weather. I hope it’s a sign of things to come this winter! Cold and colder!!

[Cpv17]

Big rainmaker on the Euro and CMC. GFS has nothing.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 161132
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
532 AM CST Wed Nov 16 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 351 AM CST Wed Nov 16 2022

Another dry and cool day is on tap for the region today as sfc
high remains strong over the Southern Plains/western TX. The
upper-lvl trough centered over the Great Lakes will continue to
bring progressive shortwaves over the region today, resulting in
mid to high clouds. Some clearing will be possible for areas north
of I-10 this afternoon, before cloud coverage increases again
this evening. 850mb temperatures will climb into the 1-6 degC
range, suggesting highs mostly in the 50s. With continued cold
northerly wind, another chilly night is expected with overnight
lows from the mid 30s to upper 40s inland, and in the low 50s
along the islands.

A wind shift is expected on Thursday as sfc high moves overhead,
shifting winds to the northeast and east throughout the day. This
pattern will slightly increase humidity levels over the coastal
waters with PWATs around 1.0 inch. At the same time, an
approaching elongated upper-lvl trough will provide some forcing
over the region. Forcing looks moderate and enough to produce
isolated showers across parts of the region. However, strong
intrusion of 850:925mb dry air and PWAT values below 1-inch
(inland) will keep much of this activity as virga or sprinkles.
Therefore, have only included a slight chance of rain along the
coast/barrier islands and a chance of rain offshore, where low-lvl
moisture is deeper.

One of the coldest night of the week will be Thursday night into
early Friday. Cloud cover will decrease from north to south during
the day while winds become light in the evening. With light winds
and mostly clear skies, we should see sufficient radiational
cooling to drop temperatures into the 30s and 40s. Wind chill
values in the 30s can be expected by early Friday.

Maldonado

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 351 AM CST Wed Nov 16 2022

The primary weather feature of interest in the long term will be
the the weekend Gulf low. As early as Friday, low level moisture
will be on the rise. It may be enough to kick off a few rain
showers, primarily south of I-10. However, moisture in the
mid/upper levels is expected to be lacking on Friday. The moisture
profile above 700MB may be downright dry. This should change by
Friday night or Saturday morning as a stream of moisture from the
Pacific moistens these upper layers in conjunction with a west
Gulf low or trough that will advect higher PWATs into our region.
In addition to the moisture, a convergent zone near the coast
coupled with weak disturbances aloft should give us the lift we
need to generate at least sct areas of rain, especially near the
coast. NBM has been aggressively increasing PoPs for late Friday
through Saturday in recent runs. Our forecast is a slightly
watered down version of the NBM which still equates to a general
wetter trend over most of the CWA. There`s uncertainty regarding
how far north the rainfall will extend. The I-10 counties south to
the coast have the best chance of rainfall on Saturday. But areas
farther north have seen a PoPs increase as well, minus our
northern most counties. As the gradient increases between the low
and the high to the north, northeast winds will increase,
especially along the coast. This would tend to enhance CAA over
our region. Perhaps the low 50s we are predicting Saturday
afternoon are a little too warm. Saturday afternoon could be stuck
in the 40s for some.

The system pulls away on Sunday as high pressure builds in from
the north. However, high mid/upper level RH values coupled with
oncoming shortwaves and northeasterly surface flow keeps the
chilly gray pattern entrenched through at least Monday. We may
finally switch to onshore flow by Tuesday, suggesting a warming
trend. Our temp grids are showing highs reaching the 60s by
Tuesday. But it is difficult to know how long this warming trend
will last seeing that there may be another cold front next week.

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 527 AM CST Wed Nov 16 2022

VFR conditions are expected through the period. BKN to OVC mid to
high clouds will persist today and tonight. However, terminals
north of IAH could see some SCT clouds in the afternoon. Light
north to northeast winds will strengthen to 10-12 knots this
afternoon, before becoming light and variable in the evening.

05

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 351 AM CST Wed Nov 16 2022

Moderate to strong northeast winds and elevated seas offshore will
persist for the next several days. A coastal low or trough is
forecast to impact the region this weekend further increasing winds
and seas as well as bringing a better chance of rain. Periods of
advisory levels winds are likely over the next several days.

Self

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 55 38 56 36 / 0 10 10 10
Houston (IAH) 55 41 56 38 / 0 10 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 56 49 55 51 / 10 10 20 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through late tonight for
GMZ330-335.

Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 6 AM CST early this
morning for GMZ350-355-370-375.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Thursday for GMZ350-355-370-
375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...05

[Cpv17]

18z GFS jumped onboard with a significant rain event joining the Euro and CMC.

[Iceresistance]

GFS has a big storm for Thanksgiving, but no cold air to work with the snow potential even in Oklahoma.

[Stratton20]

That storm system is 9-10 days out, expect some changes

[Cpv17]

That storm system is 9-10 days out, expect some changes

Yeah but with the SOI drop I’m more inclined to believe it.

[txsnowmaker]

GFS has a big storm for Thanksgiving, but no cold air to work with the snow potential even in Oklahoma.

In Oklahoma or Texas? The Thanksgiving forecast for Houston is bright and sunny.

https://abc13.com/weather/

[Iceresistance]

GFS has a big storm for Thanksgiving, but no cold air to work with the snow potential even in Oklahoma.

In Oklahoma or Texas? The Thanksgiving forecast for Houston is bright and sunny.

https://abc13.com/weather/

Mostly Oklahoma, but it does reach down into most of Texas as well.

[don]

This Saturday is looking to be a washout.As a potent Gulf low develops offshore.

[Cpv17]

This Saturday is looking to be a washout.As a potent Gulf low develops offshore.

I’ve noticed the WPC has really increased QPF across our area but I’m not sure which system it’s coming from.