November 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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don
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Spotty heavy rain is already starting to move into the metro area.We need to watch the impulse south of San Antonio moving towards SE Texas along the 59 corridor.That looks to be the catalyst for storms later this afternoon along with the warm and cold fronts.
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Cpv17
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don wrote: Thu Nov 24, 2022 9:34 am Spotty heavy rain is already starting to move into the metro area.We need to watch the impulse south of San Antonio moving towards SE Texas along the 59 corridor.That looks to be the catalyst for storms later this afternoon along with the warm and cold fronts.
It’ll be interesting to see where it sets up. It’ll be dependent upon where the warm front is I would imagine. The 12z HRRR had it setup just north of the 59 corridor.
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don
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Cpv17 wrote: Thu Nov 24, 2022 9:46 am
don wrote: Thu Nov 24, 2022 9:34 am Spotty heavy rain is already starting to move into the metro area.We need to watch the impulse south of San Antonio moving towards SE Texas along the 59 corridor.That looks to be the catalyst for storms later this afternoon along with the warm and cold fronts.
It’ll be interesting to see where it sets up. It’ll be dependent upon where the warm front is I would imagine. The 12z HRRR had it setup just north of the 59 corridor.
Yep I agree where the warm front stalls will probably be the track the impulse takes.And the area of heaviest rain today.
Cpv17
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don wrote: Thu Nov 24, 2022 9:56 am
Cpv17 wrote: Thu Nov 24, 2022 9:46 am
don wrote: Thu Nov 24, 2022 9:34 am Spotty heavy rain is already starting to move into the metro area.We need to watch the impulse south of San Antonio moving towards SE Texas along the 59 corridor.That looks to be the catalyst for storms later this afternoon along with the warm and cold fronts.
It’ll be interesting to see where it sets up. It’ll be dependent upon where the warm front is I would imagine. The 12z HRRR had it setup just north of the 59 corridor.
Yep I agree where the warm front stalls will probably be the track the impulse takes.And the area of heaviest rain today.
There actually could be quite a few areas that don’t get much of anything today. Rain looks a lot more widespread tomorrow.
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don
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...FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Urban and small stream flooding caused by excessive
rainfall is expected.

* WHERE...A portion of southeast Texas, including the following
counties, Galveston and Harris.

* WHEN...Until 215 PM CST.

* IMPACTS...Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas.
Water over roadways.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 1108 AM CST, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges
indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. This will cause
urban and small stream flooding. Between 2 and 3 inches of
rain have fallen.
- Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected
over the area. This additional rain will result in minor
flooding.
- Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Northern Pasadena, northwestern Baytown, northern
Friendswood, Deer Park, Clear Lake, Channelview, South Belt /
Ellington, Highlands, San Jacinto State Park, northeastern
Houston Ship Channel and Ellington Field.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.
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djmike
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Setup will probably be over Beaumont! 🦃🦃🦃
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
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snowman65
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Happy warm, humid, muggy, rainy, miserable southeast Texas Thanksgiving 🤣🤣🤣
Cpv17
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djmike wrote: Thu Nov 24, 2022 11:57 am Setup will probably be over Beaumont! 🦃🦃🦃
Almost always is.
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don
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The impulse that was south of San Antonio earlier is about to enter the metro area.
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Stratton20
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The end of the 12z Euro has my interest 👀
Cpv17
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don wrote: Thu Nov 24, 2022 1:08 pm The impulse that was south of San Antonio earlier is about to enter the metro area.
It’s pouring it’s a** off over here!!! I had to drive through it on my way to my sisters house in East Bernard for Thanksgiving. Many cars were pulled over on the side of the road. I had to drive 40mph almost the whole way. I could barely see anything.
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don
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Flood watch issued
hgx.png
hgx.png (11.17 KiB) Viewed 1159 times
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
120 PM CST Thu Nov 24 2022

TXZ199-200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436-438-439-
250330-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.A.0005.221124T1920Z-221126T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Montgomery-Northern Liberty-Colorado-Austin-Waller-Inland Harris-
Chambers-Wharton-Fort Bend-Inland Jackson-Inland Matagorda-Inland
Brazoria-Inland Galveston-Southern Liberty-Coastal Harris-Coastal
Jackson-Coastal Matagorda-Coastal Brazoria-Coastal Galveston-
Matagorda Islands-Galveston Island-Bolivar Peninsula-
Including the cities of Texas City, Clute, Palacios, Winnie, Conroe,
Houston, Ganado, Bellville, Weimar, Waller, Columbus, Pasadena,
Anahuac, Angleton, Eagle Lake, Hempstead, Missouri City, Mont
Belvieu, Stowell, Wharton, Pecan Grove, Dayton, Sugar Land, First
Colony, Sealy, Lake Jackson, Prairie View, Pearland, La Marque,
Baytown, Freeport, Old River-Winfree, Alvin, Liberty, Edna,
Galveston, Friendswood, Mission Bend, The Woodlands, Rosenberg,
Devers, Bay City, El Campo, Brookshire, Cleveland, League City, and
Dickinson
120 PM CST Thu Nov 24 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.

* WHERE...Portions of south central Texas and southeast Texas,
including the following areas, in south central Texas, Coastal
Jackson and Inland Jackson. In southeast Texas, Austin, Bolivar
Peninsula, Chambers, Coastal Brazoria, Coastal Galveston, Coastal
Harris, Coastal Matagorda, Colorado, Fort Bend, Galveston Island,
Inland Brazoria, Inland Galveston, Inland Harris, Inland
Matagorda, Matagorda Islands, Montgomery, Northern Liberty,
Southern Liberty, Waller and Wharton.

* WHEN...Through Saturday morning.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected in and near
the Watch area through Saturday morning. Rainfall rates up to
2 inches per hour are expected with higher rates up to 4
inches per hour in the stronger and slower moving storms.
Locations that have already received heavy rain on Thursday,
especially across southeastern Harris county and Brazoria
county will be most vulnerable to flooding. There might be
periods with little to no rainfall, but when heavy rains
return late Friday the flood risk will increase.
- https://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared
to take action should flooding develop.

&&
davidiowx
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I’m out in West Texas until Saturday missing all the action lol. Looks like my area (Richmond) is about to get a massive soaking
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djmike
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1 .00” so far! Time for a turkey float!
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
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don
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Tornado Warning
TXC039-157-167-201-242100-
/O.NEW.KHGX.TO.W.0027.221124T2039Z-221124T2100Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
239 PM CST Thu Nov 24 2022

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Western Galveston County in southeastern Texas...
Eastern Fort Bend County in southeastern Texas...
Northeastern Brazoria County in southeastern Texas...
South central Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 300 PM CST.

* At 239 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over southwestern Manvel, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
Alvin and Brookside Village around 250 PM CST.
Pearland, Friendswood, southwestern South Belt / Ellington and
Greater Hobby Area around 300 PM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2940 9543 2947 9548 2963 9523 2947 9513
TIME...MOT...LOC 2039Z 240DEG 30KT 2947 9537

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
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don
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I'm at 1.08 inches so far and its still coming down hard. 4-5 inches have already fallen over parts of Pasadena and Deer Park.
dp6
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KHOU is very deservedly catching absolute hell this afternoon for interrupting the dramatic ending of an NFL game for a tornado warning and refusing to keep the game video on in the corner of a split screen.

Of course there has to be an interruption for a tornado warning, but there's zero excuse for not split screening. The critical weather info still gets conveyed when 75% of the tv image and 100% of the sound is covering the weather.
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don
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The WPC has issued a MODERATE risk for flash flooding tomorrow.Stay weather aware.
wpc_excessivse_rainfall_day2.us_sc.png
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
323 PM EST Thu Nov 24 2022

Day 2
Valid 12Z Fri Nov 25 2022 - 12Z Sat Nov 26 2022

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST...

...2030Z Update...

High resolution CAMs are beginning to key in on a potentially
significant flash flooding event across the central and upper
Texas Gulf Coast on Friday. Plentiful Gulf moisture and some
instability along the TX Gulf Coast will support repeating
thunderstorms. Most of the significant rainfall in the Moderate
Risk area will be overnight Friday night into Saturday morning
(after 00Z). While this will limit impacts as far as traffic is
concerned, overnight flash flooding has its own dangers for those
in flood-prone areas. Otherwise, the model discrepancies today are
night-and-day better than 24 hours ago
. That said, there remain
some minor differences, particularly on where exactly the heaviest
rainfall will be, with some models continuing to hint that the
main forcing will be inland, closer to the upper level low. These
areas will certainly get quite a bit of rain, but without the
instability it's expected that there will be training showers, and
very little in the way of convection. Thus, the 2-4" possible
across north central TX are likely to fall for much of the day and
the first part of the overnight...in other words, spread out over
a long period of time.

Thus, while the Moderate Risk was introduced along the coast,
areas further inland were downgraded from the Slight to a Marginal
risk. Due to the much better consistency (generally speaking) in
the models with the overnight runs, much of the meteorology
described in the previous discussion below remains unchanged.

Wegman
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Cpv17
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A moderate risk..dang! You don’t see those too often.
Cpv17
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The latest CPC forecast has us staying wet through the first week of December.
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