December 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
brazoriatx
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Signs are looking good! Possible? For sure! Guaranteed? Hardly! Trend is your friend
brazoriatx
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don wrote: Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:16 am
Harveyvsallison wrote: Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:05 am
don wrote: Thu Dec 15, 2022 11:28 pm Yep a snowstorm on Christmas 😆. something like what the 0Z GFS shows is possible if that disturbance is potent enough and digs/hangs to the southwest.😉
I like how you said “Snowstorm” it’s only an coating. This is way too far out to automatically ride the GFS
You think i don't know that? There's a reason why the emoji was used its called sarcasm.You barely post here, but you sure have come out of the woodwork to be messy today...We all know not to trust the models that far out, but that's NOT going to stop us from talking about it though.This is a weather DISCUSSION board.I already explained earlier what i think about the potential setup around Christmas.
:roll: I smell a troll....
Harveyvsallison
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brazoriatx wrote: Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:27 am
don wrote: Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:16 am
Harveyvsallison wrote: Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:05 am

I like how you said “Snowstorm” it’s only an coating. This is way too far out to automatically ride the GFS
You think i don't know that? There's a reason why the emoji was used its called sarcasm.You barely post here, but you sure have come out of the woodwork to be messy today...We all know not to trust the models that far out, but that's NOT going to stop us from talking about it though.This is a weather DISCUSSION board.I already explained earlier what i think about the potential setup around Christmas.
:roll: I smell a troll....
Troll? Nah
Harveyvsallison
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Harveyvsallison wrote: Fri Dec 16, 2022 2:58 am
brazoriatx wrote: Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:27 am
don wrote: Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:16 am

You think i don't know that? There's a reason why the emoji was used its called sarcasm.You barely post here, but you sure have come out of the woodwork to be messy today...We all know not to trust the models that far out, but that's NOT going to stop us from talking about it though.This is a weather DISCUSSION board.I already explained earlier what i think about the potential setup around Christmas.
:roll: I smell a troll....
Troll? Nah
😉
Harveyvsallison
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Okay, sorry for trolling. Interesting run by the GFS models trending wetter near Christmas. Take this as a trend. It’s still far out. Good news for my home city of Houston though.
txsnowmaker
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A white Christmas in Houston per 6z GFS. A sight to behold!

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?pr ... hive=false
brazoriatx
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txsnowmaker wrote: Fri Dec 16, 2022 6:59 am A white Christmas in Houston per 6z GFS. A sight to behold!

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?pr ... hive=false
Its a beaut clark!!
Cpv17
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This is no fluke run either because it has ensemble support!
brazoriatx
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Cpv17 wrote: Fri Dec 16, 2022 7:15 am This is no fluke run either because it has ensemble support!
Things are starting to get real around here..just a little..still time for Lucy to yank that football tho
Cpv17
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brazoriatx wrote: Fri Dec 16, 2022 7:17 am
Cpv17 wrote: Fri Dec 16, 2022 7:15 am This is no fluke run either because it has ensemble support!
Things are starting to get real around here..just a little..still time for Lucy to yank that football tho
Or time for even better trends ;) but watch 12z take it away :lol:

We’ll see. But this was my original thinking all along because this is originally what the models were hinting at and if you’ve paid attention the past few days to the precipitation forecasts from the CPC they’ve been having above normal precipitation in almost the same area as the 6z GFS storm track. Also with the SOI recently going negative that would activate the STJ.
brazoriatx
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Cpv17 wrote: Fri Dec 16, 2022 7:24 am
brazoriatx wrote: Fri Dec 16, 2022 7:17 am
Cpv17 wrote: Fri Dec 16, 2022 7:15 am This is no fluke run either because it has ensemble support!
Things are starting to get real around here..just a little..still time for Lucy to yank that football tho
Or time for even better trends ;) but watch 12z take it away :lol:

We’ll see. But this was my original thinking all along because this is originally what the models were hinting at and if you’ve paid attention the past few days to the precipitation forecasts from the CPC they’ve been having above normal precipitation in almost the same area as the 6z GFS storm track. Also with the SOI recently going negative that would activate the STJ.
I can hear 57 already..that's a fluke run lol no snow. Maybe a light freeze..high of 40 lol
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MontgomeryCoWx
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My heart, be still on the 6z
Team #NeverSummer
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snowman65
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Fri Dec 16, 2022 7:41 am My heart, be still on the 6z
Holy cow!! Back in the game, baby!! lol
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snowman65
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txsnowmaker wrote: Fri Dec 16, 2022 6:59 am A white Christmas in Houston per 6z GFS. A sight to behold!

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?pr ... hive=false
Loving that color for me in Orange, Tx!!
redneckweather
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That run will get the board to poppin this morning. Lol
Cpv17
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redneckweather wrote: Fri Dec 16, 2022 8:00 am That run will get the board to poppin this morning. Lol
Yeah I just hope it doesn’t get pushed too far south because with the Artic air in place that could lead to too much suppression but I do think this is a possibility.
brazoriatx
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I'm assuming if a low in the gulf forms it would move up the coast right? Much like it did in 2004?
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Yeah but you don’t want it too far off the coast
Team #NeverSummer
txsnowmaker
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There’s a met on S2K predicting that it goes further south for a 2004 redux where we end up with nothing here. I sure hope that doesn’t turn out to be the case.
brazoriatx
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I don't buy that 6Z GFS run for a second, by the way. It's been way too bullish with west Gulf lows all season. Odds are it doesn't have the pattern right.

Right on cue from 57 😆
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